Brewers vs. Giants MLB Best Bet: Take the Over in the Bay

Both the Milwaukee Brewers and San Francisco Giants have been playing rather mediocre baseball the last couple of weeks, and each are hoping that winning their rubber game of their series on Thursday might ignite a nice run.

Milwaukee is going off -130 at Bookmaker on the morning line, and the Brewers will send Frankie Montas (6-10, 4.69) to the mound in San Francisco against Hayden Birdsong (3-5, 5.19). Most shops are carrying 8 for the total, and juicing the ‘under.’

Series Notes & Rivalry Trends

William Contreras fueled Milwaukee in Tuesday’s series opener by collecting 3 hits and sparking a 1st-inning outburst that led to a 3-2 final. The Brewers closed as small road favorites to begin the road trip with a victory after dropping 4 of their last 5 on a homestand.

San Francisco bats were the story in the second game on Wednesday, the Giants scoring early and often in a 13-2 rout. Closing -130 on the MLB odds board, the Giants cracked 3 HR among their 17 hits, and ‘over’ bettors collected their winnings before the end of the second inning.

Milwaukee leads the season series 3-2 following Wednesday’s contest, and the Brewers have won 4 of the last 6 dating to last season. With the ‘over’ in Game 2, totals stand 2-2-1 O/U in contests this season, and 5-3 in the last 8 games played in San Francisco where the Giants have won 6 of the last 8.

Giants Have Dropped Birdsong’s Last 6 Starts

It has been a so-so transition for Montas as a Brewer after coming from Cincinnati in a deadline deal. The Dominican has just 2 quality starts among the 7 he has made for the Reds, pitching to an ERA just below 4.00 in those 39 innings, though Milwaukee has won 5.

One of the quality starts was the last time out when allowed 3 runs over 6 innings while striking out 10, but the Brewers couldn’t muster enough offense at home to make his effort stand up in a 3-2 loss to Colorado.

This will be the sixth road start for Montas since he put on a Brewers jersey, and Milwaukee has won 4 of the previous 5 thanks to averaging 7.0 RPG in those contests. He got knocked around in San Francisco with the Reds on Mother’s Day in just his second career start against the Giants.

Birdsong is making just his 13th MLB career start, and after the Giants won 4 of his first 6, they have since lost the last 6 games the rookie pitched. Control has been a huge problem for the former 6th-round pick out of Eastern Illinois, with Birdsong issuing 20 free passes during the losing skid (21.2 IP).

He walked a career-high 5 in just 3 innings of work last Wednesday in a loss to the Diamondbacks. Arizona’s 6-4 victory came as -130 chalk at top sportsbooks, and it was the fourth ‘over’ winner in the 6-game losing streak for Birdsong and San Francisco.

The start before that took place in Milwaukee where the Brewers roughed the rookie up for 5 runs before chasing Birdsong to the showers just 2 outs into the fourth inning. The Brewers drew 4 walks off Birdsong, and Garrett Mitchell took him deep.

Umpire Notes & Mother Nature

Dan Iassogna’s crew has been together since Opening Day, and 11-year veteran Ben May lines up to call balls and strikes in the series finale. This is May’s 27th plate assignment of 2024, going 11-15 O/U in the previous 26 with home teams going 17-9, 3-1 when the underdogs.

There will be a little bit of sunlight left when the game begins under clear skies. The weather man is calling for a 66° reading on the thermometer at first pitch, with a 10-15 westerly breeze blowing from home plate out to center field.

The Pick

Even a mild win streak could mean a lot to Pat Murphy and the Brewers. Milwaukee has fallen 3½-games behind Philadelphia and Los Angeles for one of the top two slots in the NL postseason, and the 1st-round bye that goes with it.

Even if they couldn’t make up any ground on the Phillies and Dodgers, a modest spurt of 4-5 wins officially clinch the NL Central and allow Murphy to set up his playoff rotation and rest some regulars out in the field.

Maybe that streak begins tonight, but expectations of plenty of plate crossings make the ‘over’ the best MLB pick for this one.

MLB Pick: Over 8 (+104) at Bookmaker

Over 8 (+104)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.