MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (+135) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have a full 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Sunday, with all games in the afternoon this last day before the All-Star break. We went 2-1 at top-rated sportsbooks including a +133 winner on Friday and we are back with a play we feel has the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model favors a side in the desert Sunday with the Blue Jays visiting the Diamondbacks.
For more of our betting analysis, check out:
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, July 14, 2024 – 04:10 PM ET at Chase Field
Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks has not looked particularly good since returning from injury, while Yusei Kikuchi of the Blue Jays seems to keep improving with age. Thus, we are supporting Toronto as a road underdog on Sunday.
Not Cy Young Contender Any More
Gallen finished second in the National League Cy Young Award voting last season even though he was a bit shaky in September and during the post-season. And while he was off to another fine start this season, he spent a month on the injured list, and he did not look like the same pitcher since returning.
Sure, he still has a 3.38 ERA and 3.32 xFIP overall, but most of that success came before getting injured. In his three starts since coming back, Zac has a 4.11 ERA, including eight runs allowed on 11 hits over 9.1 total innings in his last two starts. Perhaps more concerning are his swinging-strike rates in the last two starts of 8.6% and 9.2% respectively, lowering that rate for the season to 10.7% after 11.2% last year.
Better Command
Kikuchi is 33 years old, but he is coming off his best Major League season and is having a better year this season than his ERA would indicate. He posted career-bests in both ERA (3.86) and xFIP (3.77) last season, and while the ERA is 4.00 this year, the xFIP is again at a career-best 3.27. The ERA is skewed by an unlucky .329 BABIP allowed.
The key to Yusei’s turnaround is clear, and that is improved command. He had never had a walk rate lower than 3.55/9 before last season when he suddenly improved that to 2.58/9. Well, he has improved that even more this season to 2.04.9, while still maintaining an excellent strikeout rate of 9.86/9. The latter is no fluke either with his swinging-strike rate at 12.6%.
The Pick
With Kikuchi defying Father Time and Gallen not yet in peak form following his injury, we are calling for an upset and backing the Blue Jays on the road in Arizona.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 5 – Diamondbacks 4
MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (+135) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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