Bears vs. Texans Sunday Night Football Pick: Avoid the Williams Wall

Caleb Williams just did something nobody has done in over 20 years: Win his first start after going No. 1 in the NFL Draft. Williams and the Chicago Bears beat the Tennessee Titans 24-17 in Week 1, cashing in as 4-point home favorites on the NFL odds board. The last person to do it? David Carr, in 2002.

As fate would have it, Williams will face Carr’s former employers in Week 2. The Houston Texans are coming off a 29-27 win over the Indianapolis Colts; Houston failed to cash in as 3-point road faves, but as you can see above, we’re putting the Texans in our Sunday Night Football picks. Anything less would be uncivilized.

If only we had been there at the open when Houston hit the board at -5. But you can still get them below the full seven points at most online sportsbooks as we go to press, including Heritage, who have the best deal in vigorish at –108.

Is Caleb Williams a Fraud?

There’s that word again. Williams may have won his first start, but really, the Bears won despite him. The only touchdowns they scored were on a 21-yard blocked punt return by Jonathan Owens, and a 43-yard pick-six by Tyrique Stevenson.

According to the free QB Rankings at nfelo (Football Outsiders, we hardly knew ye), Williams’s performance was No. 30 out of the 32 Week 1 starters, better than only Tennessee’s Will Levis and, you guessed it, Bryce Young of the Carolina Panthers. Young had a horrible 2023 campaign after going No. 1 in the draft. Is Williams headed for the same fate?

Probably not. Chicago still has some work to do if they want to make the playoffs in the NFC North, where they came into the 2024 season behind both the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers on the NFL divisional futures market. But they’re a considerably better team on paper than Carolina, with quality players on defense and special teams. They won’t leave Williams’s cheese hanging in the wind.

Is C.J. Stroud a Fraud?

Wow, so many non-believers out there. Stroud was drafted second overall behind Young and won Offensive Rookie of the Year honors by taking Houston (10-7 SU, 9-8 ATS) to the AFC South title, plus a Wild Card win over the Cleveland Browns, 45-14 as 2-point home dogs. Nobody was calling Stroud a bust then.

There’s slightly less enthusiasm for the Texans heading into Week 2. Stroud was fairly quiet during that win over Indianapolis, throwing for 234 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 24-for-32 passing with zero picks. Four scrambles for 13 yards didn’t add much to Houston’s offense.

Competence counts for something, though. Stroud’s Week 1 performance ranks No. 16 at nfelo, nestled snugly between Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams and Justin Herbert of the L.A. Chargers. All told, Houston generated 0.11 EPA (Expected Points above Average) per offensive play last week, or No. 8 overall, compared to minus-0.24 EPA for Williams and the Bears.

The Pick

As long as we’re giving up less than a touchdown, we’re content to recommend Houston for your Week 2 football picks here at the ranch. Williams might have a better supporting cast around him than Young, but then again, so did Justin Fields, the No. 11 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft whom Chicago bailed on to select Williams. I expect a similar learning curve for the new guy, even if he’s the better prospect of the two, so bet accordingly – and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NFL Pick: Texans -6.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Texans -6.5 (-108)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.