We have a full schedule of 15 Major League Baseball betting matchups that you can bet on at top-rated sportsbooks.
Based on the MLB odds, our betting action focuses on the Emerald City of Seattle. Our model likes a third side in as many bets with the Athletics visiting the Mariners.
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MLB Pick: Mariners ML (-150) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, May 10, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at T-Mobile Park
For the second time in three plays, we are betting on a pitcher making his 2024 debut. This time we are backing Bryan Woo and the Mariners as they host Paul Blackburn and the Athletics.
Rehab Went Well
Woo is being activated from the injured list to make his season debut after looking extremely sharp in three rehab starts. He did not allow a single earned run in 11.1 innings with an impressive 17 strikeouts and an 18.7% swinging-strike rate, as well as a 50.0% groundball rate.
Bryan is now ready to build on a rookie season last year where he went 4-5 with a 4.21 ERA and an aligning 4.26 xFIP. There were some positive signs though pointing to second-year growth, such as his good strikeout rate of 9.55/9 and below-average hard contact rate of 27.1%. Woo also throws a heavy 95.0 MPH sinker, so the uptick in his groundball rate during rehab does not seem fluky.
Lucky So Far
Blackburn comes in at 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 3.64 xFIP. He has overachieved as much as this Oakland team, which stands a surprising 18-21 overall. We still project the Athletics to finish in last place in the AL West by the end of the season, and we also foresee negative regression for Blackburn.
That is because Paul has benefitted greatly in the Luck stats with a low .235 BABIP allowed and a high 80.6% strand rate. That luck has masked a huge dip in his strikeout rate to 6.64/9 from 9.03/9 last season. And another concern is Blackburn’s low fastball velocity this year of 91.8 MPH contributing to the reduced strikeout rate.
The Pick
We see the season debutant Woo showing improvement in his second year while also expecting both the A’s as a team and Blackburn individually to regress negatively. Therefore, we are laying the odds with the homestanding Mariners.
Predicted Score: Mariners 5 – Athletics 3
MLB Pick: Mariners ML (-150) at Bookmaker
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