We have a full schedule of 15 Major League Baseball betting matchups that you can bet on at top-rated sportsbooks using our MLB odds.
Our betting action comes in Baltimore, as our proprietary model has the best bet on a side when the Diamondbacks visit the Orioles.
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MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+108) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles
Friday, May 10, 2024 – 07:05 PM ET at Oriole Park
While Brandon Pfaadt of the Diamondbacks has been rather inconsistent, his high upside makes him our underdog call visiting Cole Irvin and the Orioles.
Still Very Good Command Ratio
Let us not forget that on a staff that included Cy Young Award candidate Zac Gallen, Pfaadt was arguably the best starter on the Arizona staff from August 1st onward last season. That made us very high on him entering this year, so his inconsistency while going 1-2 with a 4.61 ERA has been somewhat disappointing.
However, Brandon still has a ton of upside as his xFIP is a very good 3.28 ERA. More importantly, his command numbers have been even better than last year with a K/BB ratio of 9.22/1.32 per nine innings so far. He has been unlucky with a low 61.4% strand rate, so we see his ERA converging toward the good xFIP as the strand rate normalizes.
Best wRC+ Against Lefties
Irvin enters at 3-1 with a 2.86 ERA through six starts. However, all is not as it may seem. His xFIP is over a full run higher at 3.97 and his measly strikeout rate of 5.71/9 is at the lowest mark of his Major League career. And not only is he pitching to more contact than ever, but most of it has been hard with a soft/hard contact ratio of 14.0% / 31.8%.
We do not expect that luck to continue with the southpaw Irvin now facing what so far has been the best offense in baseball against left-handed pitching. The Snakes have been lethal (pun intended) while leading the majors in wRC+ against lefties at an amazing 145 (45% above average), as well as leading in OPS against southpaws at .866!
The Pick
Thus, we expect an Arizona offense that has pummeled left-handers to start bringing Irvin down to earth, while also expecting Pfaadt to start trending toward his xFIP. That makes the Diamondbacks a nice underdog bet for Friday.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 5 – Orioles 4
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+108) at BetOnline
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