Astros vs. Guardians MLB Best Bet: Cleveland Tops Houston in Playoff Preview

Houston and Cleveland have each clinched their respective American League division titles, which on the surface might lead some to believe the Astros and Guardians have nothing to play for this weekend to finish off the regular season.

While it’s true both managers will rest regulars and set up their pitching plans for the playoffs, there’s still plenty to play for on both sides.

Friday’s opener features Ronel Blanco (12-6, 2.88) on the hill for Joe Espada and the Astros while Stephen Vogt sends Joey Cantillo (2-3, 4.63) out to begin the proceedings for the Guardians. Cleveland is small chalk at BetOnline with a -118 morning line, and shops are carrying 7½-8 for the scoreboard target.

Season Series & Rivalry Trends

It has been five months since the two sides got together in Houston, and the Astros won 2 of those 3 games. ‘Over’ bettors returned to the pay window twice in that series at Minute Maid Park, and the victories gave Houston 5 wins in the last 6 meetings.

Last year’s series in Cleveland went to the Guardians, 2 games to 1, with the ‘over’ once again cashing twice in that set. Favorites on MLB odds boards have cashed 6 of the last 7 matchups and home teams have won or split the last 6 series.

This season marks the 27th anniversary of the first time the two clubs played each other, that 1997 series in Houston being an interleague matchup then. The Astros have a slight 47-45 edge in regular season contests, plus 3-0 in postseason play when they swept the then-Indians in the 2018 ALDS.

Just 8th Career Start for Cantillo

Houston rested Blanco earlier this month, allowing him just one relief outing over a 14-day stretch. He has since returned to the starting mix and picked up right where he left off with wins in his 2 starts.

Both of those outings came against the Angels, who don’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of pitchers these days with their 3.96 RPG scoring clip, 27th in the majors. Blanco blanked the Halos over 6 innings in Anaheim, then held them to 1 earned run across 6 frames last Saturday in Houston as heavy chalk at top sportsbooks.

Blanco missed the Guardians when they were in Houston earlier this year, and his only experience against them came in an abbreviated start last August at Minute Maid Park (4 IP, 2 ER). He sports a 2.52 ERA in 13 road starts this year, the Astros 9-4 in those contests.

Following a rough month of August when Cantillo got knocked around to the tune of a 7.63 ERA in 3 starts and a relief outing (15.1 IP), September has a much smoother ride. The Honolulu native has made 3 starts this month, producing 3 wins for the Guardians while pitching to a 1.10 ERA with 22 Ks in 16+ innings.

Cantillo couldn’t quite make it through the fifth inning last Thursday against Minnesota, allowing 1 earned run in his 4.1 IP while walking 3 and striking out 6. Cleveland took Cantillo off the hook for the loss by coming back to win the game 4-3 in extra innings.

Control has been an issue at times for Cantillo, who was a 16th-round selection by the Padres in 2017. He had that same trouble in the minors this year, issuing 27 free passes in 39.2 innings. He will be facing a Houston team that is 24-21 against left-handed starters in 2024.

Alvarez Out for Entire Series

Both teams enjoyed a day off on Thursday, helping managers Espada and Vogt get a jumpstart on setting up pitching plans for the playoffs and resting a few regulars.

Cleveland is still in the hunt for the overall No. 1 seed in the American League playoffs, and the Guardians also reach this weekend in relatively good health. Ideally, Vogt would love to only use Emmanuel Clase one time in this series. Since the game’s best closer pitched both Tuesday and Wednesday against the Reds, Vogt would probably prefer to rest Clase on Friday.

Houston slugger Yordan Alvarez is hobbled a bit with a recent knee sprain, and reportedly did not travel with the team to Cleveland. Espada is likely to hold closer Josh Hader back and limit the lefty to just one appearance this weekend.

Rain in Weekend Forecast

Mother Nature is not cooperating with baseball’s final weekend, and there is rain spread throughout the Cleveland forecast all three days. The weatherman is also suggesting some significant wind on Friday, 18-22 mph from the ENE (in from RF).

Home teams have been the way to play this rivalry, and that’s the MLB pick in the series opener as the Guardians roll to a 5-2 decision.

MLB Pick: Guardians ML (-118) at BetOnline

Guardians ML (-118)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.