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Top sportsbooks have released their odds for Friday’s slate of Olympics competition.
Three games, across two different sports, interest me as worth investing in: Australia vs. USA and Belgium vs. France in the women’s basketball semifinals, and France vs. Spain in soccer.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Australians and Belgians in women’s basketball and in the French in soccer.
Australia vs. USA (Women’s Basketball)
Friday, August 09, 2024 – 11:30 AM ET at Bercy Arena
The Odds
In order to decide who to bet on in this game, we have to appreciate the spread. As of Thursday morning, the Americans are favored by 17.5 points.
I don’t think anybody is questioning whether the Americans will win this game.
However, there are 17 different scores that the game could finish with that would position Australia as the ATS winner.
In order to invest in the Americans, we have to believe that, in addition to winning, they will blow out the Australians by more than 17 points.
What Goes Into A Blowout
We can see, from USA’s second-to-last game – the Americans only won their last game, against Nigeria, by 14 points – what goes into such a large victory.
When the Americans beat Germany 87-68, they converted over 40 percent of their three-point attempts.
Moreover, they were highly efficient inside. On top of these two things, they played great defense, holding Germany to below 70 points.
By achieving all of this, the Americans won by an amount that would be just enough to cover a 17.5-point spread.
Looking at Friday’s matchup, we should focus on the interior. For the sake of argument, we can assume that the Americans will do well from behind the arc because they do have some good shooters.
However, they’ll also need to thrive inside the arc in order to score enough points in order to cover the spread.
Australia’s Interior Strength
When the Australians, in their last game, beat Serbia 85-67 in the quarterfinal, they limited Serbia to below 40 percent shooting inside the arc.
If you look at their recent box scores, you’ll see that the Australians do this consistently. It is evident that their interior defense is very strong.
My point is that the Australians have the strength – both in terms of physical ability and raw strength – inside to limit the Americans.
USA wants to lean on physical players like A’ja Wilson to thrive inside, but they won’t be able to bully the Aussies.
Key Rim Protector
Australia’s key rim protector is Ezi Magbegor, who plays in the WNBA for Seattle.
At 6’4, she has great length that allows her to patrol the paint and protect the rim effectively.
She is a great shot-blocker who regularly blocks a lot of shots. Serving as a key shot-blocker, she disrupts the opposing offense’s rhythm, gains momentum for her side, and initiates fast break offense.
She is just one example of Australia’s defensive prowess inside.
The Americans might shoot well from deep, but they will not thrive inside, which means that their offense will be relatively limited.
More WNBA Talent
The general key for Australia is that it does boast significant WNBA talent, making it a great candidate to remain competitive with USA.
On offense, the Australians will lean on Sami Whitcomb, who plays for Seattle in the WNBA.
She is known as a high-volume, efficient, and otherwise excellent three-point shooter.
Her shooting will complement the scoring inside that Australia can lean on the likes of Magbegor to achieve.
Women’s Basketball Best Bet: Australia +17.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Belgium vs. France (Women’s Basketball)
Friday, August 09, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at Bercy Arena
Belgium Is Underrated
The fact that Belgium is the underdog in this matchup reflects the slowness of oddsmakers to adjust to reality. Belgium was not expected to advance this far, and yet here they are.
The Belgians have been underrated. Hence, they have been covering the spread with ease in their most recent games.
Most recently, they more than doubled the spread in their win over Spain. Likewise, in August, they blew out Japan by 27 points after easily covering the spread against the Americans.
Given their ATS run, the Belgians should be an automatic investment.
After USA, they arguably field the best offense, as evident in their high scoring totals, and their defense gives opponents unique struggles.
Key Player
When France lost to Australia by seven, the French showed the potential porousness of their interior defense, as the Australians were extremely efficient inside the arc.
Watch out, therefore, for Belgium’s Emma Meesseman, a scoring machine who regularly scores 20 or 30 points in a given game.
The star center will replicate what the Aussies did to France, as Belgium continues to be underrated by oddsmakers thanks largely to its uniquely strong offense.
Belgium scored the second-most points in group play and, primarily with its star center, has the ability to flourish against France’s defense.
Women’s Basketball Best Bet: Belgium +4.5 (-110) at BetOnline
France vs. Spain (Soccer)
Friday, August 09, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Parc des Princes
The Best Defense
Friday’s gold medal match between France and Spain will come down to the fact that the French can defend whereas Spain cannot.
France has allowed one goal in these entire Olympics. Conversely, Spain has conceded at least one goal in four of its five Olympics matches.
The Spaniards, for example, gave up two goals to an Egyptian side that France held to one goal in an extended match. France beat Egypt, whereas Spain did not.
The French backline is a talented unit that has collected strong experience in the top-tier German and French leagues, but it is also evident that France can also be counted on to score at least one goal per match.
France has scored at least one goal in every Olympics match and three goals in three different matches.
Soccer Best Bet: France 0, -0.5 (+105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
