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Top sportsbooks have released their odds for Thursday’s slate of Olympics competition.
Three games, from two different sports, interest me as worth investing in: Egypt vs. Morocco in soccer, Germany vs. France, and Serbia vs. USA in basketball.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Egypt-Morocco “Over”, Germans, and the Americans.
Egypt U23 vs. Morocco U23 (Soccer)
Thursday, August 08, 2024 – 11:00 AM ET at La Beaujoire Stadium, Nantes
Reliable Attacks
I like the “Over” in this match because both teams are reliable in attack. In Olympics competition thus far, Egypt has scored at least one goal in each of its last four matches.
Egypt’s ability to score against a very stout France team that has done an amazing job of limiting opposing goals particularly impressed me.
Morocco has been even more consistent than Egypt, scoring at least one goal in all five of its matches so far. The Moroccans, moreover, have scored at least two goals in three different matches.
These are two teams that can score a lot and that can be relied upon to score. They also concede too many goals against weaker competition than they’ll encounter on Thursday.
Soccer Best Bet: Over 2.5 (-124) at BetOnline
Germany vs. France (Basketball)
Thursday, August 08, 2024 – 11:30 AM ET at Bercy Arena
Key Question
France’s most recent game, in which it handled the favored Canadians, might dispose bettors to invest in the French.
We need to cast recency bias, this phenomenon whereby people tend to attach exaggerated significance to the most recent events, aside and ask ourselves whether the French deserve a heightened degree of confidence after their no doubt impressive-looking win over Canada.
How France Beat Canada
There are two key points to make here: one is that Canada played poorly, which is to say that Canada lost at least as much as France won. The other point is that France had special matchup advantages against Canada, which, I will contend, it will not have against Germany.
Regarding the first point, footage of Canada’s game against France shows that the Canadians succumbed to poor shot selection. They committed terrible turnovers.
Their coaching staff also made horrible errors, one of which was to rely extensively on Jamal Murray, whose poor form provided a major hindrance to his side’s endeavor to dig itself out of the early hole.
Of course, moving to the second point, the French deserve some credit.
They bullied Canada’s bigs inside, exerting their dominance in the interior for which the Canadians failed to compensate. France was too strong inside both on offense and on defense.
Indeed, inside play is supposed to be something that France can rely on. Its most well-known NBA players include Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert, both bigs, and both guys who are known for being solid inside.
Germany Is Not Canada
Germany is not Canada, though, which is why we cannot use France’s last game to guide our perception of its chances against Germany on Thursday.
Canada is weak, with its low-level NBA talent, inside, where it also lacks depth.
Neither trait – untalented and not deep – applies to Germany in the interior.
The Germans are deep and strong inside. They have Daniel Theis and Moritz Wagner. Moritz Wagner, who plays for the Orlando Magic, is a notorious pest who excels on defense. Theis, who plays for another NBA playoff team in the New Orleans Pelicans, is characteristically strong and physical.
Especially Moritz Wagner’s defense is worth highlighting: his mixed team defense metric positions him in the 93rd percentile. Fellow big Johannes Voigtmann, also 6’11, is likewise worth highlighting for his positive contribution to Germany’s defensive efficiency.
Germany Is Too Deep
The Germans are going to overwhelm France with their depth of talent. Franz Wagner is, like his brother, an efficient scorer. Guard Dennis Schroder, also an NBA player like Franz and Moritz, is a playmaker whose efforts help decide games in Germany’s favor.
Germany’s ability to score from various spots with its guards, forwards, and centers helps negate the influence that Gobert, who is pretty useless offensively, will have on the game, which means that France is going to be too reliant on Wembanyama, whereas Germany has so much good talent to count on.
Basketball Best Bet: Germany -5.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Serbia vs. USA (Basketball)
Thursday, August 08, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at Bercy Arena
The Americans Are Ready
Team USA impressed me in its last game. While Brazil is not a very strong opponent, the Americans have had a history of underperforming especially against inferior opponents.
But the Americans were ready for knockout stage action. They pummeled Brazil to the tune of 122-87.
This result shows their level of concentration. When they are focused, they can blow out any team.
Watch Out, Serbia
Asking this American group of NBA superstars to beat Serbia by more than 16 points is not a tall ask.
The Americans are too strong throughout the floor.
Serbia is going to rely on its one NBA star, Nikola Jokic, but Jokic is completely outmatched by himself. We’ve seen Jokic be limited by much inferior competition, such as Australia.
Team USA has the finest, most well-reputed rim protectors to help limit Jokic’s inside presence, with annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate Anthony Davis being one example.
Outside of Jokic, the Serbs have one decent guard and not really anything else, whereas the Americans have a host of three-point shooting stars and inside playmakers.
Basketball Best Bet: USA -16 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
