Table of Contents
Top Pick
- Carlos Alcaraz -1.5 (+130) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The top sportsbooks have released their odds for Sunday’s slate of Olympics competition.
Three games, from three different sports, interest me as worth investing in: USA vs. Germany in women’s basketball, Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic in tennis, and the women’s 200m.
USA vs. Germany (Women’s Basketball)
Sunday, August 04, 2024 – 11:15 AM ET at Pierre Mauroy Stadium
The Women Are Not The Men
Don’t confuse this American squad with its male rendition. Whereas the men lack the motivation to dominate their much weaker opponents and consequently fail to cover large spreads, the women have no such problems.
The women dominated Japan by 26 points after dominating Germany by 27 points.
Unlike the men, the women exhibit an inclination to extend their domination over their opponent into the second half. By investing more energy for greater periods of time, the women make it possible for them to cover large spreads.
What Their Win Over Japan Means
When the women faced Japan, they had to deal with a difficult strategic hurdle. Their ability to do so shines a positive light on their outlook for Monday’s match.
To be specific, Japan likes to play with all five players positioned behind the arc, which means that the opposing team’s bigs have to gravitate away from the rim, where they are typically more comfortable, and guard along the perimeter.
When the Americans beat Japan 102-76, they demonstrated their ability to be this flexible on defense.
Germany’s Key Player
America’s ability to limit Germany’s top player is going to be decisive.
The Germans want to rely on WNBA star Satou Sabally, a forward who, despite her size, isn’t so good at scoring inside the arc. Rather, she is, similar to the Japanese, someone who is stronger and more comfortable behind the arc.
Therefore, an American big will want to be comfortable defending behind the arc in order to limit her.
Forward Breanna Stewart is a great candidate to play this role on defense. She is, despite her size, a good perimeter defender. Stewart is also simply an elite defender in general, as evident in her five WNBA All-Defensive Team selections.
Takeaway
As the last matchup between these teams showed, Germany has trouble scoring against an American squad that is laden with great defenders – defenders who excel at protecting the rim, as A’ja Wilson does, and who are likewise excellent perimeter defenders.
But the Americans will also score a lot of points with their host of inside and outside scorers.
With their motivation strong and persistent enough to dominate second halves in a game where they’ve already established themselves to be the better side, it is worth investing in them to cover the spread.
Basketball Pick: USA -18.5 (-115) at BetOnline
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic
Sunday, August 4, 2024 – 06:00 AM ET at Stade Roland-Garros
Dominant Alcaraz
While both Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic have been perfect in terms of sets, it is Alcaraz who has been the more dominant figure.
This dominance is evident in his last match, a 6-1, 6-1 win over Felix Auger-Aliassime.
In terms of matchups, Djokovic has had it pretty easy so far in these Olympics. Alcaraz will easily be his toughest test.
Recent History
As we all saw in Wimbledon, when Alcaraz beat Djokovic in straight sets, the first two of which he won with a four-game margin, Alcaraz has owned the head-to-head history.
Alcaraz is simply younger and fitter. Coming off a recent injury, Djokovic is not moving as well.
Given Alcaraz’s superior form and history, we should expect him to beat Djokovic. We can get him at a nice price to remain undefeated in sets.
Tennis Pick: Alcaraz -1.5 Sets (+130) at BetOnline
Women’s 200m
Sunday, August 4, 2024 – 04:55 AM ET at Stade de France
Take The Underdog
It makes sense why oddsmakers have Gabrielle Thomas listed as the favorite for the 200m, as she has the best time in this event this year.
However, what I don’t understand is why a bettor should be motivated to invest in her at her current price. Taking her at -110 is unjustifiable in view of the strength of her competition.
The woman with the second-best time this year, in this event, is McKenzie Long. She is .05 off Thomas’ best 200m time. .05 is such a minuscule difference.
An NCAA champion, she is in great form and a proven winner. It is worth taking a shot at her at such an incredible price, +800, to win an event that she is more than capable of winning.
200m Pick: McKenzie Long (+800) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
