Top NFL Pick: Derrick Henry to Dallas Cowboys (+500) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Editor’s Note: On March 11th, the Washington Commanders announced the signing of Austin Ekeler. On March 12th, the Texans signed Danielle Hunter, and on the 13th the Ravens did the same with Derrick Henry according to multiple sources.
NFL free agency is almost here as the new league year officially starts on Wednesday, March 13 at 4:00 P.M. ET. The “legal tampering period” starts a few days before that, and while that still sounds illegal, we promise our 2024 NFL free agent predictions are safe, sound analysis.
However, the top-rated online sportsbooks are also getting in on the action with Bovada offering a series of bets for free agents where you can match them to their new team this season. The caveat is the player must play Game 1 of the 2024 NFL season for the new team, and the odds look nice because it’s all dependent on the player actually switching teams.
That is why the full bet line includes “Where Will [Free Agent] Play Game 1 of the 2024/2025 NFL Regular Season If Not the [Current Team].” So, if Stefon Diggs doesn’t leave Buffalo in the end, it won’t matter which team you picked him to go to in 2024. The bet just lost.
Also, one of our favorite picks is Davante Adams going to the Jets to reunite with Aaron Rodgers (-125), but the problem there is it would require a trade. Adams is not a free agent, and our goal here is to predict free agent movement.
With that in mind, we did find 3 players that we like to take a chance on making a move in free agency that would be a good fit for both parties. We’ll see if any players actually make the move, but the NFL odds are favorable for many of these that it’s worth a shot.
Derrick Henry the Latest Star Running Back in Big D?
- Player: RB Derrick Henry
- 2023 Team: Tennessee Titans
- 2024 Favorite to Land in Free Agency: Ravens (+200)
It sure felt like the Derrick Henry era ended in Tennessee in his final game last season when he addressed the crowd and thanked them for a great 8-year run. The Titans also moved on from coach Mike Vrabel by going with Brian Callahan for 2024, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill is not expected back either.
It is time for the 30-year-old Henry to find his new team. He still led the NFL in carries (280) last year, and he can be an effective player in the right offense. The odds prefer the Ravens (+200) for him. That would have been a logical fit in the past, and Gus Edwards is a free agent too.
However, what if the Ravens go for someone younger and with more receiving upside for Lamar Jackson like Tony Pollard, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara or Austin Ekeler?
Houston, We Have a Running Back
Speaking of Pollard, he is a free agent too and may not be back after having a disappointing 2023 season despite it being his opportunity to prove he can be the full-time lead back. That is why our pick is for Henry to take his talents to Dallas. He may not have to sniff 300 carries again, but he can get over 200 touches from the backfield to give Dak Prescott another experienced runner.
This would be a total Jerry Jones move, as he’s had Emmitt Smith, Ezekiel Elliott and he even brought in Eddie George from the Titans when he was well past his prime in 2004. Henry has more in the tank than George did, so let’s look for history to repeat itself and see an all-time great back from the Titans take his 30-year-old body to the Cowboys.
If not Dallas, then maybe Houston is the right Texas city for Henry to be part of that rotation and help C.J. Stroud. Henry has killed the Texans in his career, so maybe joining them and their young phenom at quarterback would also be a great move.
Either way, we like Henry to go to Texas.
NFL Pick: Derrick Henry to Dallas Cowboys (+500) at Bovada
Austin Ekeler and Kellen Moore Reunion in Philadelphia
- Player: RB Austin Ekeler
- 2023 Team: Los Angeles Chargers
- 2024 Favorite to Land in Free Agency: Ravens (+250)
Austin Ekeler is one of the best-receiving backs in the game, and you could argue he was never properly utilized as a runner with the Chargers. Maybe the team lacked the run blocking for him too, but he is still a talented back.
However, Jim Harbaugh is the new coach, Greg Roman is the new offensive coordinator, and the team may be moving in a new direction offensively with more of a downhill, grinding runner. Gus Edwards is available from Baltimore, which is a connection to Roman’s past and Harbaugh’s brother John, so that could be an easy pickup for the team if they move on from Ekeler.
Swift Transition
Still, this time of the year, you are starting to look for fits where a player has previous experience with a certain coach or assistant. That is why Ekeler going to the Eagles makes sense as new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was with Ekeler on the Chargers last year.
They had an explosive debut last year when Ekeler rushed for 117 yards in Week 1 against Miami. Yet, in typical Chargers’ fashion, he was injured and missed the next 3 games. He never rushed for 100 yards again last season. Still, the Eagles need the help. They got away from their identity in 2023, and while D’Andre Swift did okay at times, Ekeler is the better player and a better receiving back who could really help Jalen Hurts.
Swift is also a free agent, and he averaged just 5.5 yards per catch last year. Ekeler is a little older, but his experience with Moore and dual-threat ability makes him a good pickup for the Eagles.
NFL Pick: Austin Ekeler to Philadelphia Eagles (+600) at Bovada
Danielle Hunter Staying in the NFC North?
- Player: Edge Danielle Hunter
- 2023 Team: Minnesota Vikings
- 2024 Favorite to Land in Free Agency: Jaguars (+125)
The Vikings look to be at a crossroads with an upcoming decision on Kirk Cousins at quarterback, but don’t forget the situation with edge rusher Danielle Hunter too. He had a career-high 16.5 sacks last year and led the league with 23 tackles for loss. Hunter has shown he can play in multiple styles of defense, including a 4-3 end and 3-4 edge. He is going on 30 years old, but he hasn’t missed a game in the last 2 seasons, and he has 27 sacks in that time.
Bringing in a proven 30-year-old edge rusher is something you do when you are close. A team like the Jaguars are not that close in the AFC. In fact, they should look to keep Josh Allen in the building instead of going all out for a veteran, so we disregard those odds of the Jaguars being the favorite to land Hunter.
Hunting for Success
The team that could really use him is Detroit. The defense improved last year, but it was still not championship caliber and that playoff run exposed why. Aidan Hutchinson had a very encouraging 2nd season with 11.5 sacks, but he could use another bookend rusher to help him out.
Hunter would be a great fit, and it’s usually a good idea to borrow from within the division with a proven talent you see twice a year. Send this guy to Detroit and see if the team can make the leap forward on defense that it needs to get over that last hurdle and make a Super Bowl.
NFL Pick: Danielle Hunter to Detroit Lions (+400) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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