Top NCAAB Pick: Alabama +4.5 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
March Madness has now reached the second weekend of the NCAA Basketball Tournament. The Sweet 16 takes place on Thursday and Friday with four games each night. We are here with our three best bets for the Thursday card that we feel hold betting value at the current NCAAB odds.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, regardless of whether the teams involved hail from major, mid-major or minor conferences. Our three best bets at the top-rated sportsbooks for Thursday consist of two favorites from the East Region and one underdog in a West Region matchup.
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Connecticut Huskies
Thursday, March 28, 2024 – 07:39 PM ET at TD Garden
We begin with the first game in the East Region on Thursday. After betting against Connecticut the last two games, we are riding the Huskies this time over San Diego State in a rematch of last year’s NCAA Tournament Championship Game.
Hot at the Right Time
Just like last season, Connecticut has gotten hot at the best possible time. Besides being the overall top seed of this tournament, finishing #1 on the AP Poll and being ranked #1 on Kenpom, the Huskies also own the longest winning streak in the country at nine. After seeing line value on the other sides of the first two rounds and getting run over, we are not getting in front of this UConn freight train here.
The Huskies are second in the country in offensive efficiency and eighth in defensive efficiency. They are “green” in every Kenpom component on both ends, apart from defensive turnover percentage, where they are surprisingly 239th. However, that is not much of a concern this game as Connecticut is third in eFG% allowed and facing a sub-par shooting team.
Poor Shooting the Downfall
Hailing from the Mountain West, San Diego State is one of only two teams in this Sweet 16 not from a major conference (Gonzaga is the other). Yes, the Aztecs rank 17th overall on Kenpom, but the highest-ranked major-conference team they beat all year was 59th-ranked Washington in overtime.
This is not to say the Aztecs are without merit, as they rank ninth in defensive efficiency and a respectable 53rd in offensive efficiency. However, they lucked out by drawing Yale instead of Auburn in the second round, and this is not a good shooting team ranking 207th in eFG%.
The Pick
Given that poor shooting, we do not see how San Diego State will keep pace against the best defense and best overall team they have faced all year. Just like last year’s Championship, look for a safe double-digit Connecticut win.
Predicted Score: Connecticut 75 – San Diego State 60
NCAAB Pick: Connecticut -9.5 (-108) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Thursday, March 28, 2024 – 09:39 PM ET at Crypto.com Arena
Next, we move to the second game in the West Region, where we are foreseeing an outright upset. We are betting the much better shooting Alabama team to prevail over favored North Carolina, although we are taking the points as insurance.
Much Better eFG%
While we concede that Alabama is not a great defensive team, and that is probably the reason they are underdogs, this team can score on anyone. The Crimson Tide rank fourth in the country in offensive efficiency, 10th in eFG%, ninth in 2-point shooting and 31st in 3-point shooting.
Yes, the Tide had issues pulling away from Grand Canyon after scoring 109 points in the first round against Charleston. However, GCU is ranked ninth in the country eFG% allowed and 39th in turnovers force, resulting in 14 Alabama turnovers. We do not see a replay of that against a North Carolina defense that does not apply much pressure.
And while the Alabama defense is not great, it is still above average in efficiency at 102.5 points per 100 possessions allowed (national average 106.1).
Don’t Force Turnovers
The Tar Heels are 16th in offensive efficiency and sixth in defensive efficiency. But we still disagreed with North Carolina getting the 1-seed in the West over either Arizona or Tennessee. The Heels were only ranked ninth overall on Kenpom on Selection Sunday and they remain ninth today.
Despite the efficiency rating, North Carolina is not a very good shooting team, ranking 120th in eFG%, 165th in 2-point shooting and 71st in 3-point shooting. But we feel the ultimate flaw leading to their demise here is their lack of defensive pressure alluded to earlier. The Tar Heels are only 310th in turnover percentage forced, which is not ideal against one of the best shooting teams in the land.
The Pick
So, while North Carolina should still have offensive success against the Alabama defense, the Crimson Tide are the much better shooting team and should not face too much pressure. Take the points in what we see as a probable upset.
Predicted Score: Alabama 88 – North Carolina 85
NCAAB Pick: Alabama +4.5 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Thursday, March 28, 2024 – 10:09 PM ET at TD Garden
We wrap things up with the nightcap in the East Region. In an otherwise close matchup, we see an expected turnover advantage for Iowa State being a key factor in covering this small spread against Illinois.
Best Offense vs. Best Defense
If you want to talk about the ultimate stalemate, this game pits the #1 team in the country in offensive efficiency in the Fighting Illini against the #1 in defensive efficiency in the Cyclones. If you believe in the adage of good defense stops good offense, that would give the edge to Iowa State, who are ranked slightly higher on Kenpom at seventh overall compared to 10th for Illinois.
And while these teams are very close in all Kenpom components except one, that one outlier may ultimately be the deciding factor in this contest. We are talking about turnovers, specifically defensively where Iowa State applies a lot of pressure ranking second in the nation in turnover percentage forced. Conversely, Illinois applies hardly any pressure ranking 360th out of 362 teams in Division I.
Good Ball Protection
Iowa State has won both NCAA Tournament games by double-digits since posting one of the best wins for any team all year in the Big 12 Championship. The Cyclones blew out top-seeded Houston 69-41 that day and have continued to roll since. Also, note that Kenpom rates the Big 12 as the best conference in the country.
Now, we mentioned how these teams rank very close in most categories, and that includes offensive turnover percentage. Illinois is fractionally better at 15.0% compared to 15.5% for Iowa State (national average 17.1%). But the major difference is that Illini will face much more pressure than usual while the Cyclones should be able to run their offense virtually unabated.
The Pick
We see that as the deciding factor in an Iowa State win and cover in Boston on Thursday.
Predicted Score: Iowa State 78 – Illinois 72
NCAAB Pick: Iowa State -2 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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