Top NCAAB Pick: Houston -4 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
March Madness has reached the second weekend of the NCAA Basketball Tournament, as the Sweet 16 continues with four more games on Friday. As usual, we are here with our three best bets for the Friday card that we feel hold betting value at the current NCAAB odds.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, regardless of whether the teams involved hail from major, mid-major or minor conferences. Our three best bets for Friday consist of two plays from the South Region and one Midwest Region matchup at the best sportsbooks.
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Marquette Golden Eagles
Friday, March 29, 2024 – 07:09 PM ET at American Airlines Center
We begin with the first game in the South Region on Friday. While we still feel that Marquette is the weakest of the four 2-seeds, they are fortunate to draw a favorable matchup with 11th-seeded NC State. Thus, we predict a safe Eagles win.
Top 15 in eFG%
The Golden Eagles are only ranked 13th on Kenpom, which belies their 2-seeding. However, for the second straight round, they are drawing a double-digit seed after getting by 10th-seeded Colorado 81-77 in the second round. Moreover, they actually draw a lesser opponent in this Sweet 16 matchup with the Wolfpack ranked 55th on Kenpom.
Marquette is very good offensively, ranking 19th in efficiency and 15th in eFG%. We feel they were overseeded though because they are a poor rebounding team on both ends (282nd in offensive %, 278th defensive %) and do not draw fouls, ranking 348th out of 362 teams in Division I in FTA/FGA ratio.
However, this is a matchup where the lack of offensive rebounds gets minimized due to hitting a high percentage of shots against a weak NC State perimeter defense.
Bad Perimeter Defense
The Wolfpack reached this point by beating an average shooting Texas Tech team in the first round and drawing an upstart Oakland team ranked 129th on Kenpom in the second. And they needed overtime to get by those Golden Grizzlies. We feel this is the game where their perimeter defense will get exposed.
That is because NC State ranks 162nd in eFG% allowed primarily due to ranking 219th in 3-point defense. The Wolfpack did not face any Top 15 teams in eFG% like Marquette inside the ACC, with the highest-ranking team in that conference in eFG% being Duke at 18th. That Duke team went into Raleigh on March 4th and romped 79-64 over the Pack on their home floor.
We expect the same struggles for the NC State defense vs. a better shooting team here, so give the points with Marquette in Dallas.
Predicted Score: Marquette 83 – NC State 72
NCAAB Pick: Marquette -6.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Friday, March 29, 2024 – 07:39 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena
Our second selection on Friday comes from the Midwest Region. Purdue is ranked #3 overall on Kenpom and will have most of the crowd support in Detroit. We look for a handy victory over Gonzaga.
Unstoppable Offense?
This is a rematch of a regular season meeting won by Purdue 73-63 way back in November. Despite the long span between matchups, we are expecting a similar outcome for this game. Purdue put up 106 points against Utah State in the second round and is averaging 83.9 points for the year, and we do not see the Gonzaga defense slowing the Boilermakers down.
The Boilers can score from anywhere, in fact leading the country in 3-point shooting at a remarkable 40.9%. And should they elect to go inside, they have the favorite to win national Player of the Year in the 7’4” behemoth Zach Edey. Furthermore, you cannot sleep on a Purdue defense either that ranks 16th in efficiency and 37th in eFG% allowed.
Who They Beat?
Gonzaga comes from the weakest conference to have a team in the Sweet 16 in the West Coast Conference. Of course, the Bulldogs always make up for that with extremely strong non-conference schedules, but unlike past seasons, they don’t really have any great wins this season.
The highest-ranked Kenpom team the Zags beat during the regular season was 21st-ranked Kentucky, a win that lost its luster with the Wildcats losing to Oakland in the first round. Then the next best win for Gonzaga all year was against 28th-ranked Kansas on Saturday, but the Jayhawks were without Kevin McCullar.
We do not see a Gonzaga defense ranked 171st in 3-point defense vs. a weaker schedule slowing down the best 3-point shooting team in the country in Purdue. Add in the matchup nightmare in Edey and look for another Boilermakers double-digit win.
Predicted Score: Purdue 85 – Gonzaga 75
NCAAB Pick: Purdue -5 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Duke Blue Devils vs. Houston Cougars
Friday, March 29, 2024 – 09:39 PM ET at American Airlines Center
We wrap things up with the nightcap in the South Region. We trust the exceptional Houston defense to slow down the great Duke offense, with the end result being a covering Houston victory.
Best Defense in Country?
The Cougars rank second in the country in defensive efficiency behind only Iowa State. However, we believe that Houston has the best defense when factoring in that they are second in eFG% allowed, third in 3-point defense and 10th in 2-point defense. And they also apply great pressure, ranking third in turnover percentage forced at 24.4% (national average 17.1%).
Do not forget that they accumulated those rankings while playing in the highest-ranked conference on Kenpom in the Big 12. Granted, the Cougars are right at the national average in eFG% offensively at 50.5%, but they make up for that by not turning the ball over and crashing the offensive glass. To wit, Houston ranks ninth in turnover percentage and 11th in offensive rebounding percentage.
Not Much Pressure Defense
Now Duke can obviously shoot ranking fifth in offensive efficiency and 18th in eFG%. But they have not faced a defense as good as Houston’s all year and they may struggle with the Cougars’ physicality, much like they did in two losses to North Carolina.
And if the Blue Devils do not score as much as they usually do, they could be in trouble here. That is because, unlike Houston, Duke does not apply too much pressure defensively, ranking only 161st in turnover percentage forced. When you combine that with the lack of Houston turnovers, the Cougars should be able to run whatever they want offensively.
So, when you combine that unincumbered offense with probably the best defense in the country, look for the Cougars to beat Duke handily on Friday.
Predicted Score: Houston 70 – Duke 61
NCAAB Pick: Houston -4 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
