Top NCAAB Pick: Colorado -2.5 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We have arrived at March Madness, as the 2024 NCAA Basketball Tournament kicks off with the First Four on Tuesday and Wednesday nights in Dayton. And we are here with our NCAAB odds for every single one of the First Four matchups.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, regardless of whether the teams involved hail from major, mid-major or minor conferences. As such, we are betting at top-rated sportsbooks on three small favorites and one underdog across the First Four matchups.
Looking to add some excitement to your March Madness experience? Join BMR Forum’s bracket contest for a chance to win big! By participating, you could secure a share of up to $1,000 in BTC, with prizes awaiting the top 10 participants. Don’t miss out! The pick deadline is March 21, 2024, at 12:15 PM ET.
Need a bracket to fill out? Feel free to download BMR’s exclusive copy!
Wagner Seahawks vs. Howard Bison
Tuesday, March 19, 2024 – 06:40 PM ET at UD Arena
We start with a 16-seed matchup in the West Region, where the winner of this matchup will go on to face top-seeded North Carolina. And we are laying the modest spread with Howard over Wagner.
Dangerous Beyond the Arc
Howard had a losing 15-16 record during the regular season, but they earned this NCAA Tournament bid by winning the MEAC Tournament after tying for second in the conference at 9-5. And they are miles ahead of Wagner in this contest offensively.
In fact, the Bison finished 19th in the entire country in 3-point shooting at a nice 37.5%. That led to an above-average eFG% of 52.0% (national average 50.5%), a figure that gets magnified by many extra shots due to ranking 39th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage.
The reason why Howard did not have a better record is a poor defense ranked 334th in efficiency. However, they could not have asked for a better matchup here to hide that fatal flaw.
Worst Shooters in Tournament?
Wagner also had a losing regular season record of 13-15 and they were even a losing 7-9 inside the Northeast Conference. However, they got here by winning that conference’s tournament, upsetting Merrimack in the Championship Game by the ugly score of 54-47.
And therein lies the problem for the Seahawks here, as they are the worst shooting team in this NCAA Tournament, ranking 353rd out of 362 teams in Division I in eFG% at a scant 44.6%. Sure, they got by with a good defense ranked 70th in eFG% allowed, but Wagner did not face any national Top 20 3-point shooting teams like Howard inside the Northeast.
The Pick
So, while Wagner having the much better defense may allow them to hang around, in the end, look for Howard’s excellent 3-point shooting to propel the Bison to the covering win.
Predicted Score: Howard 69 – Wagner 62
NCAAB Pick: Howard -3 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Colorado State Rams vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Tuesday, March 19, 2024 – 09:10 PM ET at UD Arena
The nightcap on Tuesday is a 10-seed Midwest Region matchup with the winner going on to face seventh-seeded Texas. And we are betting on Colorado State of the Mountain West to prevail over disappointing Virginia of the ACC.
Solid on Both Ends
The Rams may be getting a raw deal having to play in the First Four considering they are ranked 38th overall on KenPom. Colorado State went 22-9 during the regular season and 10-8 inside the Mountain before losing in the conference tournament semifinals to a very good New Mexico team ranked 23rd on KenPom.
Colorado State is a very good squad on both sides of the ball. They are 42nd in offensive efficiency and 32nd in eFG%, and they are almost unstoppable closer to the basket, ranking ninth nationally at a blazing 57.6% (national average 50.3%).
At the same time, the Rams are 38th in defensive efficiency after finishing second inside the MWC in eFG% allowed against better shooting teams than Virginia.
No Offense
Virginia finished 22-9 overall and 13-7 in the ACC during the regular year. However, the Cavaliers limped home, as their already suspect offense abandoned them completely while going 3-4 their last seven games before getting knocked out by a nondescript NC State team in the ACC Tournament. They are also ranked 31 spots lower than Colorado State on KenPom at 69th.
Yes, the Cavaliers are elite defensively as usual, ranking seventh in defensive efficiency. However, they are 194th on offense while ranking 246th in eFG%. Furthermore, the only times they exceeded 63 points in the last seven regular season games were against two soft teams in Georgia Tech and Boston College.
Then, they needed overtime in both ACC Tournament games to reach 66 and 65 points respectively.
The Pick
While we have great respect for the Virginia defense, we expect their offensive struggles to continue against a good Colorado State defense, resulting in a safe Rams win.
Predicted Score: Colorado State 65 – Virginia 58
NCAAB Pick: Colorado State -2 (-110) at Bookmaker
Grambling State Tigers vs. Montana State Bobcats
Wednesday, March 20, 2024 – 06:40 PM ET at UD Arena
It is ironic to us that the biggest spread of the four games in the First Four comes in the game that we foresee as the closest matchup! Thus, we are taking the points with Grambling against Montana State in this 16-seed Midwest Region game, with the winner advancing to face top-seed Purdue.
No Second Chances
The Bobcats are another NCAA Tournament team that had a losing regular season record at 14-17. However, they got here by winning their conference tournament, in this case, the Big Sky. Still, Montana State remains ranked 213th on KenPom, which does not exactly exude confidence when giving points against a comparable opponent.
The Cats rank 234th in the land in offensive efficiency, primarily due to being one of the very worst offensive rebounding teams in the country. They rank 356th out of 362 Division I teams in that metric at 20.7% (national average 29.0%). They are also 163rd in turnover percentage, making for a bad combination with their severe lack of second chances.
Create Turnovers
Grambling is the only 16-seed playing in the First Four that finished the regular season with a winning record of 17-14. They also won the SWAC at 14-4 before cruising through their conference tournament, ending with a 75-66 win over Texas Southern in the Championship Game.
The major knock against the Tigers is the SWAC being the lowest-rated conference this season on KenPom. However, they can still present problems for Montana State with a defense ranked in the Top 100 nationally in eFG% allowed at 49.1% (national average 50.5%).
More importantly, Grambling can apply pressure to a turnover-prone Bobcats offense with a defense ranked 59th in the nation in turnover percentage forced.
The Pick
The only thing preventing us from outright calling for a Grambling upset is their weak conference. However, such an outcome would still not surprise us. We are still taking the points with the Tigers on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Montana State 69 – Grambling 68
NCAAB Pick: Grambling +4 (-110) at Bookmaker
Colorado Buffaloes vs. Boise State Broncos
Wednesday, March 20, 2024 – 09:10 PM ET at UD Arena
We wrap things up with a 10-seed matchup in the South Region with the winner moving on to face the 7-seeds from Florida. Colorado is the second school we are betting from that state in the First Four as we look for a handy win over Boise State.
No Colorado Love?
We are not sure what the NCAA Selection Committee has against the state of Colorado. The Buffaloes are ranked even higher than Colorado State at 26th overall on KenPom. Yet, like their in-state rivals, the Buffs are also being forced to play an extra game despite their relatively lofty ranking.
Colorado finished the season 22-9 and 13-7 in conference before reaching the Pac-12 Championship game and losing to Oregon. The Buffaloes rank 25th nationally in offensive efficiency and 42nd in defensive efficiency, showcasing a well-balanced performance.
They finished an outstanding fifth in the country in 3-point shooting at 39.4%. That is not even their biggest mismatch here. Their 52nd-ranked 2-point offense (53.6%) should have its way with the weak Boise State interior defense.
How Will They Make Stops?
The Broncos finished 22-9 in the regular season and 13-5 inside the Mountain West. However, they were one-and-done in their conference tournament losing to New Mexico. Boise is a good offensive team ranking 52nd in efficiency and an above average 126th in eFG%. However, they are still not as good as Colorado in either area.
They are even 29th in defensive efficiency, but that is primarily due to ranking fifth in defensive rebounding percentage. We think their major weakness of 2-point defense will be their downfall here. Boise State is 258th in that area allowing a 52.1% success rate. And it is not as if that can sag an extra defender inside given the Buffaloes’ excellent 3-point shooting.
The Pick
Thus, we do not foresee Boise State playing to their defensive efficiency rating in this matchup. We see Colorado’s offensive success leading the Buffaloes to a covering victory.
Predicted Score: Colorado 77 – Boise State 69
NCAAB Pick: Colorado -2.5 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
