Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NCAAB odds for the upcoming NCAA Tournament. The bracket reveal, which took place yesterday, has inspired diverse impressions that express a wide range of emotions, from disappointment and bitterness to surprise and jubilation.
Here are five takeaways from the bracket reveal, the first three of which are useful to keep in mind for your best bets, whereas the last two focus on the selection of teams.
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The Midwest Region Is Wide Open
The Midwest Region is wide open in the sense that the lower seeds have an unusually great chance of advancing. This region is filled with higher-seeded teams that are worth fading for almost obvious reasons.
Purdue, the top seed, regularly dominates regular season play but then suffers disappointment in March. Even before becoming last year the second team ever to lose to a #16 seed, the Boilermakers lost to a #15 seed two years ago and to a 13 seed three years ago.
The #2 seed, Tennessee, is led by Rick Barnes who is well-known for his failures in March. Despite the talent he’s coached, he has not led a team past the Sweet 16 in the past 15 years.
While I don’t have much bad to say about the #3 seed Creighton, the #4 seed Kansas is an instant fade. Kansas, a team that has no depth, missed its top two shot-takers in its conference tournament, where it suffered a 20-point blowout loss to Cincinnati in the first round.
With the #1, #2, and #4 seeds so unlikable, a lower seed can very easily emerge.
UConn Has the Deck Stacked Against It
Many people are floating the idea that UConn could become the first team to repeat as national champion since Billy Donovan’s Florida Gators did in 2006 and 2007.
While it is hard to criticize UConn’s depth of talent, we have to recognize how hard it is to compete against strong teams. It is hard to beat a lot of good teams, one after the other.
In its region, UConn might have to face an Auburn team that looks like a very strong #4 seed. Iowa State, another conference champion, is the #2 seed in the region, and also looks very difficult to beat given its elite defense. The #3 seed in that region is Illinois, which just won the Big 12.
In total, there are three conference champions – from power conferences – in UConn’s region, in addition to UConn itself. UConn is favored by oddsmakers to win the national championship, but the difficulty level of its region must give one pause.
Furthermore, we should note the relative unlikelihood of this region comprising a Cinderella team.
The Year of Kentucky
Kentucky is a famous blue blood, a uniquely prestigious college basketball program that has more wins than any other D-I program. Still, Kentucky hasn’t made the Final Four since the 2014-2015 season.
Given the unrelenting recurrences of its disappointing tournament outcomes, it is easy to dismiss Kentucky’s chances. I believe, however, that it is worth reconsidering the Wildcats.
They get a very favorable draw: they’ll ease past #14 seed Oakland and then face a beatable Texas Tech team or an NC State squad that lucked its way into the tournament thanks to an unbelievable choke job from Virginia.
The highest seed they would then face would be a Marquette team that, under Shaka Smart, has one tournament win in two seasons. Shaka’s March Madness success is confined to his days at VCU.
Houston is the #1 seed in Kentucky’s region and is highly beatable because of its injured interior depth pieces and its tendency to play in low-scoring games, which is dangerous in March.
Non-Conference Mattered More Than You Thought
A lot of bettors are up in arms about certain teams that made it to the Big Dance and others that got left out. Letting in Virginia, for example, was a controversial choice. Indiana State was controversially left out.
When a selection committee appeared on the bracket reveal show, they discussed the importance of non-conference games.
It is easy for us to forget about these games because they feel like so long ago, but remembering them helps address any perplexity you might feel about the committee’s decisions.
Take Virginia. The Cavaliers beat Florida and Texas A&M, two other respected teams that likewise made the Big Dance. Indiana State, however, does not boast this kind of non-conference resume, neither do Pittsburgh or Seton Hall teams that were controversially left out.
The Big East Was Disrespected, but Not as Much as You Think
Folks are up in arms about the small number of Big East teams included in the tournament.
While the Big East is commonly regarded as one of the best conferences, only UConn, Creighton and Marquette made the tournament.
This is actually unsurprising. There were a lot of bid-stealers this year, which killed off Big East bubble teams Seton Hall and St. John’s.
The Big East is so strong because it has this depth, but living in the bubble was simply unfortunately dangerous this year.
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