Top WTA Pick: Qinwen Zheng +5 Games (-118) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Aryna Sabalenka looks to defend her Australian Open title when she takes the court against the up-and-coming Chinese player Qinwen Zheng.
Both women have played excellent tennis so far and this should be a fantastic showdown to end the tournament.
Let’s take a look at how these two players match up and use that information to make the winning tennis pick at our top-rated online sportsbooks.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Qinwen Zheng
Saturday, January 27, 2024 – 03:30 AM ET at Rod Laver Arena
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka has been the best player in this tournament.
She has yet to lose a set en route to the women's finals and won three of those sets 6-0. She had yet to lose more than three games in a set until the semifinals.
In her semifinal match, Aryna Sabalenka played another top player in the world, US Open champion Coco Gauff.
Sabalenka won 7-6, 6-4. The Belarusian had an excellent 76% first serve percentage and won 70% of her first serve points. She also took advantage of her break chances, winning 40% of her break points. Sabalenka had more winners than unforced errors at 33-28.
The win over Coco Gauff was her sternest test but it showed that the form that Aryna Sabalenka is in will be tough for her opponent to match.
Qinwen Zheng
Qinwen Zheng makes the first Grand Slam final of her career.
The 21-year-old Chinese player entered the tournament ranked 15 in the world but her success here will bolt her into the top 10.
However, Qinwen Zheng had arguably the easiest path to a Grand Slam final that we have seen in recent years. The highest-ranked player that she defeated en route to the finals was Anna Kalinskaya, who's ranked number 75.
Zheng has been gifted an easy draw. Will that help or hinder her when she faces the tournament's defending champion?
Path to Victory
Zheng will need to land her first serve to be competitive in this matchup. She only landed 55% of her first serve points against Dayana Yastremska in the semifinal. She did, however, win 76% of those points. She was excellent on break points as well, saving eight of Yastremska’s 10 break points.
Qinwen Zheng will also need to cut down on the unforced errors. In the semifinals, she had 15 winners to 19 unforced errors. If she is going to be competitive against Sabalenka, she'll have to hit more winners than errors.
Overall, Qinwen Zheng is playing with house money. She's not expected to win this title, and at this young age in her career, she has exceeded expectations. Zheng will come into this match pressure-free, knowing that she has nothing to lose.
Matchup
Both players hit with power and prefer to be the aggressor.
This will be one of the few matches where Zheng will not have the power advantage. Aryna Sabalenka can out-hit Zheng’s powerful groundstrokes. This match should be full of quick points and aggressive tactics. Aryna Sabalenka also has the experience advantage here, after playing the final last year.
Sabalenka understands how to be under the bright lights and the change of routine that comes when playing in a standalone Grand Slam final. This experience and the fact that she has already won a Grand Slam can only help the powerful Belarusian player.
Finding Value
Aryna Sabalenka is the heavy favorite to win this match, sitting at -556 on the money line, and -5 on the game spread. The total is set at 20.5 games. The bookmakers expect this to be a decisive victory for Sabalenka.
However, Qinwen Zheng has the power, guile, and fortitude to keep this close.
Not only will this be a battle of physical strength but it will be a test of wills as Zheng will constantly be put in compromising positions during this match. Fortunately, I believe that Zheng can hang tough and hold serve enough to make this a close, competitive match.
Both players will take turns being the aggressor in this match. Whoever is able to limit unforced errors will have the advantage. This is where the lack of pressure on Zheng could help her. She shouldn't feel pressure and should swing freely.
Aryna Sabalenka has been mowing down lesser competition but Qinwen Zheng will be able to keep this close.
The Pick
In a match that will certainly display the beauty of “Power Tennis”, both players will hit winners in a close and exciting match. Our best bet for the Australian Open Women's final is Qinwen Zheng +5 games.
WTA Pick: Qinwen Zheng +5 Games (-118) at Bookmaker
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