2023 Roland Garros Odds Analysis and Betting Preview

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Spain's Carlos Alcaraz celebrates winning a point against Hungary's Fabian Marozsan during their third round match of the Men's ATP Rome Open tennis tournament. Tiziana Fabi/AFP

ATP Pick: Carlos Alcaraz to Win +150 at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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It’s time for a changing of the guard in men’s tennis. Rafael Nadal won’t be winning this year’s French Open, announcing last week that he’s still not healed sufficiently from his injured hip. Not only that, Nadal said that 2024 would probably be his last go-around at Roland Garros.

Since the 14-time champion isn’t involved – along with Andy Murray, Nick Kyrgios, and Matteo Berrettini, among others – it may seem like the 2023 French Open is anyone’s to win. That might technically be true, but really, it’s Carlos Alcaraz’s tournament to win, and upon further review, we’re happy to recommend the current World’s No. 1 for your betting picks as the +150 favorite at Heritage Sports.

On the women’s draw, No. 1 Iga Swiatek is even more dominant at -134 on the French Open WTA odds at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review). She’s a worthy choice for your French Open picks as well, but with a bit less enthusiasm and a suitably smaller bet size. Here’s why.

French Open Men’s Draw: All Hail Alcaraz

Taking Nadal out of the equation leaves two strong contenders in the men’s draw for this year’s French Open: Alcaraz, and former World’s No. 1 Novak Djokovic (+220). Holger Rune is a distant third on the Roland Garros odds at +800.

Is Djokovic Up to the Challenge?

Djokovic is obviously the more accomplished of the two gentlemen. He’s a two-time French Open champion (2016, 2021), and one of the greatest tennis players the world has ever seen. However, clay is not Djokovic’s best surface – he’s won 13 majors on hard courts (10 Aussie Opens, three US Opens), and another seven on grass at Wimbledon.

Djokovic is also prone to being overvalued by the betting public, given the level of his fame as the top overall player for most of the past decade-plus. And because of his unvaccinated status, this will be Djoker’s first appearance at Roland Garros since winning the 2021 title.

A Rising Star

Alcaraz carries none of that heavy baggage. The 20-year-old Spaniard is still a fresh face on the scene, having burst into prominence just last year with five ATP titles, including his first major victory at the 2022 US Open.

During his annus mirabilis, Alcaraz beat both Nadal and Djokovic en route to the Madrid Open title, which he won again this year – along with two other titles on clay at the Argentina Open and Barcelona Open, plus his win on the hard court at Indian Wells. Why bet on anyone else at this point?

ATP Pick: Carlos Alcaraz to Win +150 at Heritage Sports

French Open Women’s Draw: Iga to Please

There’s a bit less drama on the women’s side, but only a little; Swiatek may be favored over the field, and she might not have to face 2018 French Open champion Simona Halep this year because of her ongoing PED-related suspension, but Swiatek is still not quite the hot commodity that Alcaraz is right now. That’s because Swiatek isn’t completely healthy.

Last week, Swiatek retired from her quarterfinal match at the Italian Open versus Elena Rybakina with an injury to her upper right thigh. This was after dropping the final of the Madrid Open to Aryna Sabalenka in three sets.

Swiatek’s Challengers

As it happens, those two opponents are Swiatek’s closest competition at Roland Garros. Sabalenka, the No. 2 woman on the WTA rankings and the second seed for this tournament, is the second favorite for +600 odds at the top US sportsbooks, while No. 4 Rybakina is the third favorite at +800.

Rybakina also defeated Swiatek in the fourth round at the Australian Open and the semifinals at Indian Wells, but those were on the hard court, so you should consider sticking with Swiatek for your French Open tennis picks – for a smaller bet than Alcaraz, just in case.

WTA Pick: Iga Swiatek to Win -134 at Bookmaker

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.