2022 NFL Playoffs and Super Bowl Betting Projections

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A view of the Vince Lombardi trophy. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images/AFP

Editor’s note: This article is updated weekly as the NFL Playoffs unfold.

The Wild Card Weekend is behind us and the Divisional Round awaits as the field has narrowed to eight teams with the Titans and Packers going back to work after getting first-round byes.

Let’s chart a course for each team’s road to the Super Bowl, their current odds to win it all and the teams they might meet along the way.

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NFC

1. Green Bay Packers (13-4)

(+370 to win Super Bowl)

  • Wild Card Round Opponent: BYE
  • Divisional Round Opponent: San Francisco 49ers
  • Conference Round Opponent: Tampa Bay Bucs

The Packers had nothing to do all weekend as they copped a first-round bye and should be ready to roll when they welcome the 49ers to Lambeau Field.

The Packers traveled to Levi’s Stadium in Week 3 as 3.5 point underdogs and came away with a hard-fought 30-28 victory. Meanwhile, the 49ers are coming off pulling the only upset during this past Wild Card Weekend.

  • Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games
  • Packers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight-up loss
  • Packers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-4)

(+550 to win Super Bowl)

  • Wild Card Round Opponent: Defeated Philadelphia Eagles (31-15)
  • Divisional Round Opponent: Los Angeles Rams
  • Conference Round Opponent: Green Bay Packers

The legend of Tom Brady continues to grow as the 44-year-old quarterback added the Eagles to his list of postseason triumphs.

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The Bucs will now entertain the Los Angeles Rams, the team that accounted for Tampa’s first loss of the season, a 34-24 setback in L.A., occurring in Week 3. Get your popcorn out as we have a rematch involving Terrific Tom!

  • Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games
  • Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite
  • Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record

3. Los Angeles Rams (13-5)

(+700 to win Super Bowl)

  • Wild Card Round Opponent: Defeated Arizona Cardinals (34-11)
  • Divisional Round Opponent: Tampa Bay Bucs
  • Conference Round Opponent: Green Bay Packers

The Rams were firing on all cylinders on Monday night when they blasted the Cardinals right out of SoFi Stadium.

The L.A. defense pressured and harassed Arizona’s Kyler Murray throughout the evening and it manifested in the young quarterback tossing two interceptions, including a pick-6, holding him to only 137 passing yards in the 34-11 blowout.

Los Angeles will now travel to Tampa to meet the Bucs, a team they defeated earlier in the season.

  • Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC
  • Rams are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog
  • Rams are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game

4. San Francisco 49ers (11-7)

(+950 to win Super Bowl)

  • Wild Card Round Opponent: Defeated Dallas Cowboys (23-17)
  • Divisional Round Opponent: Green Bay Packers
  • Conference Round Opponent: Tampa Bay Bucs

San Francisco pulled a mild upset on Sunday with a 23-17 victory over the high-flying Dallas Cowboys. The 49ers limited the league’s No. 1 scoring offense to only two touchdowns and a field goal and held the routinely prolific, Dak Prescott, to one passing touchdown and one interception.

On Sunday, they will get an opportunity to avenge their 30-28 loss to Green Bay. But winning won’t come easy because according to the NFL odds the 49ers have been installed as 5.5 point road dogs and will have to contain Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay’s sixth-ranked aerial attack.

  • 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall
  • 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Divisional Playoff games
  • 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog
Aaron Jones (#33) of the Packers rushes against the 49ers in their Week 3 game. Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images/AFP

AFC

1. Tennessee Titans (12-5)

(+850 to win Super Bowl)

  • Wild Card Round Opponent: BYE
  • Divisional Round Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals
  • Conference Round Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs

While the other AFC playoff entries were battling last weekend, the Titans earned the right to take the week off but will get back to business on Saturday when they meet the Cincinnati Bengals. If the Titans can knock off the upstart Bengals, they will meet the winner of the Bills/Chiefs game in the Conference Championship.

Therefore, there is no easy road to the Super Bowl for the AFC’s No. 1 seed and the bumpy road starts this weekend. The last time Tennessee met Cincinnati was in Week 8 of the 2020 season when they traveled to the Queen City and dropped a 31-20 decision to the Bengals.

  • Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home game
  • Titans are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
  • Titans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game


2. Kansas City Chiefs (13-5)

(+400 to win Super Bowl)

  • Wild Card Round Opponent: Defeated Pittsburgh Steelers (42-21)
  • Divisional Round Opponent: Buffalo Bills
  • Conference Round Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals

To no one’s surprise, the Chiefs doubled up the Steelers and sent Ben Roethlisberger packing in what is likely the last game of his Hall of Fame career.

The Chiefs looked listless in the early going, falling behind 7-0 to Pittsburgh, before getting their offensive engine revving and drawing away to a 42-21 win. Their reward is a date with the Bills, just as we predicted in last week’s NFL Playoffs and Super Bowl Betting Projections column.

  • Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite
  • Chiefs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight-up win
  • Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff home games


3. Buffalo Bills (12-6)

(+500 to win Super Bowl)

  • Wild Card Round Opponent: Defeated New England Patriots (47-17)
  • Divisional Round Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs
  • Conference Round Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals

Josh Allen has had his fair share of games where he looks merely mortal but then we see what happens when he puts all that talent together…and it’s quite a sight. Such was the case last Saturday when Allen repeatedly torched the Patriots’ defense to the tune of five passing touchdowns and 308 yards en route to a 47-17 win over their former tormentors.

Buffalo will be one-half of this weekend’s marquee matchup as they will take on Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, again! The Bills are hoping for a similar outcome to their 38-20 victory over KC at Arrowhead earlier this season.

If this were a Super Bowl matchup, no one would complain, but alas, it is not even a conference championship tilt as the Titans upset that apple cart when they earned the No. 1 AFC seed.

  • Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
  • Bills are 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
  • Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight-up win


4. Cincinnati Bengals (11-7)

(+1300 to win Super Bowl)

  • Wild Card Round Opponent: Defeated Las Vegas Raiders (26-19)
  • Divisional Round Opponent: Tennessee Titans
  • Conference Round Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs

Joe Burrow casually tossed a pair of touchdowns and 244 yards while his LSU buddy, Ja’Marr Chase, continues to be nothing but money in catching nine passes for 116 receiving yards.

The result was a 26-19 win over the Raiders as the Cats now advance to the next round and a date in the Music City against the Titans.

  • Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall
  • Bengals are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
  • Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog

Will Buffalo’s QB Josh Allen #17 be able to jump the same hurdle? Jamie Squire/Getty Images/AFP


Projections Prior to Wild Card Weekend

The regular season is over and the postseason is about to commence as the seven playoff-bound teams in each conference have been decided.

Below we chart a Super Bowl course for all 14 postseason entries and which teams they may meet along the way.

NFC

1. Green Bay Packers (13-4)

NFC North champions (+380 to win Super Bowl)

  • Wild Card Round Opponent: BYE
  • Divisional Round Opponent: Arizona Cardinals
  • Conference Round Opponent: Tampa Bay Bucs

The Packers will have the luxury of licking their wounds and taking a well-deserved rest after posting a 13-4 record and copping the top seed by virtue of a tie-breaker with the Bucs. Aaron Rodgers is the leading MVP candidate but the Packers are statistically not a juggernaut as evidenced by the Packers’ rankings:

  • Total Yards: 10th
  • Passing Yards: 9th
  • Rushing Yards: 18th
  • Total Points: 10th

Defensively, they are smack dab in the middle of the pack in points allowed, surrendering 21.8 points per game.

The bottom line in all of this is that they are not a lock to cruise into the NFC title game. However, the bye week they will enjoy next weekend could be the determining factor in giving them the edge needed over their conference adversaries.


2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4)

NFC South Champions (+750 to win Super Bowl)

  • Wild Card Round Opponent: Philadelphia Eagles
  • Divisional Round Opponent: Dallas Cowboys
  • Conference Round Opponent: Green Bay Packers

Unlike last year, the reigning Super Bowl champs will not be tip-toeing through the backdoor to gain entrance into the playoffs but will be busting through the front gate as the NFC South champions.

Fortunately for the Bucs, they will not have to concern themselves with facing the Saints, a divisional rival that accounted for two of their four losses this season.

The Bucs have already defeated two of their projected opponents during the regular season. Tampa Bay owns a 31-29 Week 1 win over the Cowboy and has a 28-22 Week 6 victory over the Eagles in Philadelphia.


3. Dallas Cowboys (12-5)

NFC East Champions (+1100 to win Super Bowl)

  • Wild Card Round Opponent: San Francisco 49ers
  • Divisional Round Opponent: Tampa Bay Bucs
  • Conference Round Opponent: Green Bay Packers

If you have ever contemplated the notion that a team’s preseason performance is a bellwether to their fortunes during the regular season then consider that the Cowboys lost all four exhibition games, including their last, a 34-14 loss to the lowly Jaguars.

That was a far cry from what the Cowboys accomplished during the 2021 regular season as they won the NFC East and posted their most impressive record since their 13-3 mark back in 2016.

However, the road to Super Bowl glory will be paved with landmines starting with the 49ers in the wild card round and is reflected by the Cowboys’ NFL Super Bowl odds of +1200 at all of the best online sportsbooks.

It should be noted:

  • Cowboys have a top 10 defense in points allowed yet rank 19th in total yards permitted
  • Cowboys rank No. 1 in points scored, averaging 31.2 PPG
  • Cowboys rank No. 1 in total yards per game, averaging 407 yards per contest

4. Los Angeles Rams (12-5)

NFC West Champions (+950 to win Super Bowl)

  • Wild Card Round Opponent: Arizona Cardinals
  • Divisional Round Opponent: Green Bay Packers
  • Conference Round Opponent: Tampa Bay Bucs

The Rams have gotten it done with Matthew Stafford under center, a veteran presence who got a new lease on life when he was traded from his NFL purgatory in Detroit to the playoff-ready L.A. Rams. His recent stumbles have us wondering how far he can go, though.

This will be the third time these NFC West foes face each other this season. The Rams lost the first meeting with the Cardinals 37-20 at home, in Week 4, but won the second meeting, 30-23, in the desert in Week 14.


5. Arizona Cardinals (11-6)

NFC West 2nd Place (+2100)

  • Wild Card Round Opponent: Los Angeles Rams
  • Divisional Round Opponent: Green Bay Packers
  • Conference Round Opponent: Tampa Bay Bucs

The Cardinals’ path to the Super Bowl is identical to that of their wild-card round opponents from Los Angeles. Kyler Murray is one of the league’s most dynamic young quarterbacks but the absence of DeAndre Hopkins on offense and J.J. Watt on defense has not helped their cause.

Arizona staggers into the postseason having lost three of their last four games including a 38-30 loss to the Seahawks as 5½ point home favorites in their season finale. Judging by their SB odds, the oddsmakers seem to think they’ll keep stumbling.


6. San Francisco 49ers (10-7)

NFC West 3rd Place (+2100 to win Super Bowl)

  • Wild Card Round Opponent: Dallas Cowboys
  • Divisional Round Opponent: Green Bay Packers
  • Conference Round Opponent: Tampa Bay Bucs

Trick plays, smoke and mirrors, and a bit of hocus-pocus have the 49ers in the postseason after defeating the Rams, 27-24, in overtime on the final week of the regular season to cop the sixth seed and a date with the Cowboys.

But let’s give the Niners credit where it’s due. San Francisco won four of their last five games down the stretch, including a comeback from a 17-point deficit in their victory over the Rams.

Also, keep in mind that San Francisco nearly defeated the Packers earlier in the season but came up on the short end of a 30-28 decision. Can they run the gauntlet? Probably not but don’t count them out.


7. Philadelphia Eagles (9-8)

NFC East 2nd Place (+5500 to win Super Bowl)

  • Wild Card Round Opponent: Tampa Bay Bucs
  • Divisional Round Opponent: Green Bay Packers
  • Conference Round Opponent: Dallas Cowboys

The Eagles will have to morph from Clark Kent to Superman if they are to navigate the perilous waters leading to the serenity pool that awaits if they can shock the world and become NFC champs.

Philadelphia lost both of their divisional games to the Cowboys by 20 points or more. The odds don’t look good but at least the Eagles gave their rabid fans a postseason appearance.

  • Philadelphia lost 28-22 in Week 6 to the Bucs

AFC

1. Tennessee Titans (12-5)

AFC South Champions (+850 to win Super Bowl)

  • Wild Card Round Opponent: BYE
  • Divisional Round Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals
  • Conference Round Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs

The Titans edged the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed in the conference with a 28-25 win over the lowly Texans in the final week of the regular season. Tennessee is rather pedestrian offensively, ranking in the middle of the league in points scored, total yards, and passing yards.

The Titans rushing attack ranks 5th despite not having Derrick Henry for half the season. If the Titans can get their resident steamroller back for the playoffs – look out!


2. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)

AFC West Champions (+450 to win Super Bowl)

  • Wild Card Round Opponent: Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Divisional Round Opponent: Buffalo Bills
  • Conference Round Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals

The Chiefs got their collective act together right around the time they made the trade for edge rusher and linebacker, Melvin Ingram, midway through the season.

Although the 3x Pro Bowler is no longer the chaos-maker he once was, he can still bring it in a backup role and his presence has clearly made an impact on the rest of his teammates.

Kansas City is the favorite to win the AFC as Patrick Mahomes is not only one of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks, he also has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal.

  • Patrick Mahomes – 37 TDs, 13 INTS, 4839 Passing Yards (66.3% completion rate)
  • Tyreek Hill – 9 TDs, 111 Receptions, 1239 Receiving Yards
  • Travis Kelce – 9 TDS, 92 Receptions, 1125 Receiving Yards


3. Buffalo Bills (11-6)

AFC East Champions (+700 to win Super Bowl)

  • Wild Card Round Opponent: New England Patriots
  • Divisional Round Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs
  • Conference Round Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals

The Bills wrapped the regular season on a four-game winning streak with wins over the Panthers, Patriots, Falcons, and Jets. Josh Allen has one of the biggest arms in the league and his offense ranks third in points scored. Stellar defense + prolific offense = championship timber.

  • Buffalo No. 1 defense allowing 17 points per game
  • Buffalo No. 1 defense in allowing 272.8 total yards per game (33 yards less than the nearest team)

4. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)

AFC North Champions (+1700 to win Super Bowl)

  • Wild Card Round Opponent: Las Vegas Raiders
  • Divisional Round Opponent: Tennessee Titans
  • Conference Round Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs

Joe Burrow is becoming one of the bonafide superstars of the NFL and he is happily sharing the spotlight with his LSU teammate and rookie extraordinaire, Ja’Marr Chase.

The Bengals have enjoyed one of the most sensational turnarounds, going from a 4-11 team last year to AFC North champs this season. If it’s a dark horse you seek, then the Cats could be the one for you!

  • Joe Burrow – 34 TDs, 14 INTS, 4611 Passing Yards (70.4% completion rate)
  • Ja’Marr Chase – 13 TDs, 81 Receptions, 1455 Receiving Yards

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5. Las Vegas Raiders (10-7)

AFC West 3rd Place (+5500 to win Super Bowl)

  • Wild Card Round Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals
  • Divisional Round Opponent: Tennessee Titans
  • Conference Round Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs

The Raiders needed a Week 18 win over the Chargers to make their way into the postseason parade and they got it. As the conference’s fifth seed they will travel to the Queen City where they will try to avenge their 32-13 Week 11 loss to the Bengals.

Derek Carr has learned to spread the ball around to targets not named Darren Waller which has made Vegas a much less predictable, and far more dangerous, offense.

  • Las Vegas lost 32- 13 in Week 11 to the Bengals

6. New England Patriots (10-7)

AFC East 2nd Place (+2200 to win Super Bowl)

  • Wild Card Round Opponent: Buffalo Bills
  • Divisional Round Opponent: Tennessee Titans
  • Conference Round Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals

The Patriots’ issues with winning late-season games in the sun-splashed climes of Miami continued as they are now 2-9 in games in Miami that take place in December or January during Bill Belichick’s tenure in New England.

Because of their 33-24 loss as 6½ point road chalk, the Pats have dropped to the No. 6 seed and will meet the Bills for a rubber match after splitting their regular-season series.

First, the Patriots defeated Bills, 14-10, in Week 13 during a snowstorm in Buffalo but then lost at home, 33-21, in Week 16.

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7. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1)

AFC North 2nd Place (+9000 to win Super Bowl)

  • Wild Card Round Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs
  • Divisional Round Opponent: Tennessee Titans
  • Conference Round Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals

The moon and the stars aligned in just such a way that has allowed Big Ben to bask one more time in the spotlight. Najee Harris has given the Steelers a legitimate rushing threat but statistically speaking this team doesn’t do anything particularly well.

However, their defense appears to be coming together just in time to get waxed by the Chiefs this Sunday. Remember that Pittsburgh lost, 36-10, to Kansas City in Week 16.