NFL Divisional Round Picks: Why Bills Can Cover vs. Chiefs

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Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills. Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images/AFP

The NFL Divisional Round is filled with stardom ready to show out on the grandest stage. Both the AFC and NFC have one matchup in particular that feels it features the future Super Bowl champion. In the AFC, it’s the Buffalo Bills vs. the Kansas City Chiefs in a battle to determine conference power.

The 12-6 Bills and 13-5 Chiefs are both coming off big blowout wins in the Wild Card against blue blood franchises. The Bills’ 47-17 demolition of New England was a loud statement that Josh Allen and company are ready for the big stage.

The Chiefs’ 42-21 win continued a hot streak from the team after a slow start. Can the Bills cover against the mighty Chiefs? We’ll break down the NFL picks and NFL odds.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, January 23, 2022- 6:30 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Chiefs Turnovers

The biggest vulnerability of the Chiefs is their flirtation with turnovers. With 25 giveaways on the season, the Chiefs were their own worst enemy. This was especially the case in the first matchup between these two teams when Buffalo won 38-20. 

Kansas City coughed up four turnovers in that game and dropped to 2-3 on the season. Shortly after, the Chiefs awoke and went on a big 11-2 run to end the season. The Chiefs we've seen since are not the same team.

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The Chiefs have turned the ball over only five times in the last seven weeks. Also importantly, Kansas City went from a team averaging one turnover forced per week to going 12-of-13 weeks with at least one turnover.

That included a seven-game stretch with no less than two and as many as five turnovers in each game. Buffalo must win this turnover battle.

Ranking third in the NFL with 30 takeaways, the Bills are capable of accomplishing this. Their talented safeties will be key since star cornerback Tre'Davious White is on injured reserve. 

Josh Allen's Legs

The biggest x-factor for Buffalo will always be Josh Allen. Allen, who was as dominant as can be against the Patriots, is essentially the entire engine for the Bills' offense. His ability to run is a big part of their upside.

Allen has benefitted from the emergence of running back Devin Singletary. But Allen has still done the heavy lifting on the ground, producing as a top-10 rusher over the last two months of the season. That same creation with his legs must continue against the Chiefs.

Kansas City hasn't defended a rushing quarterback since the first matchup between these teams. Allen scurried for 59 yards and one score on 11 carries. Prior to that, Lamar Jackson had 107 yards and two scores on 16 carries, and Jalen Hurts had 47 yards on eight carries.

The Bills can get easy, almost free yards if Allen maximizes his legs. The Chiefs will devote significant secondary resources to Stefon Diggs, Dawson Knox, and spying Allen. But there's not one defender on the Chiefs' defense that matches up particularly well with Allen's blend of size and speed. The Bills can absolutely win this game outright.

The Chiefs are in some ways inevitable because of their offensive prowess, but there have also been numerous instances where they're their own worst enemy. Buffalo is good enough to fully capitalize and proceed to the AFC championship game.

NFL Pick: Bills +2 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Bills +2 (-110)
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NFL Pick: Over 55 (-105) with BetOnline

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Over 55 (-105)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.