After months of speculation, Aaron Rodgers announced this afternoon that his intention is to leave the Green Bay Packers to play for the New York Jets. Despite the trade not being final, the talks have already shaken up the NFL futures odds market.
For starters, the Jets’ Super Bowl odds have improved, going from as high as +1400 at offshore sportsbooks such as Bovada (visit our Bovada Review), down to +750 at BetAnySports (visit our BetAnySports Review).
That means that if you were to bet $100 on the New York Jets right now to win Super Bowl LVIII, and they actually do, you would win $750. However, had you done that a week ago, that payout would have been $1400.
But that’s not the only market affected by the move and there is still value to be found. The MVP odds have also changed a bit with Rodgers going from +1600 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) down to +1400.
However, how does this stack up against other teams like the Bills or the Dolphins? These are two squads in the AFC East that Rodgers will become more acquainted with after playing his entire career in the NFC with the Green Bay Packers.
We also take a look at how much money you could have made if you saw this trade coming a mile ahead.
New Sheriff in the AFC East?
Rodgers’ move to the Jets guarantees at least two games between him and Josh Allen and who’s currently the third favorite to win the MVP award with +650 odds. Allen is only behind Patrick Mahomes (+550) and Joe Burrow (+625).
Meanwhile, Rodgers moves up to the fifth favorite. Now, he’s behind Allen, Jalen Hurts (+950) and tied with Justin Herbert at +1400 for the #5 spot.
The dates for the two games between the Jets and the Bills will be announced in May and you can certainly make a case for both to be in a primetime slot. Both games will also be fundamental in determining the winner of the AFC East.
Currently, the Bills remain the favorite to win the division however their odds have diminished from +100 to +150 and the Jets are still the second favorite to win, improving their odds from +300 to +225 at Bovada.
Dark Horse to Win the AFC Conference?
When the NFL futures odds markets opened back in mid-February, the Jets were pinned as the fifth favorite team to win the AFC. Now, New York moved two positions and their odds improved dramatically going from +1100 down to as low as +600.
At press time, the Chiefs remain the favorite to represent the AFC in next year’s Super Bowl with their odds at +350. The new top five list of favorites is completed by:
- Buffalo Bills: +525
- Cincinnati Bengals: +550
- New York Jets: +600
- Baltimore Ravens: +1100
As for the Green Bay Packers, they remain the ninth favorite team to win the NFC Conference, however, those odds could improve or worsen depending on how the front office will respond during free agency and the NFL Draft. However, we would look to bet elsewhere as the value is hardly there.
Super Bowl or Bust?
As mentioned before, the Jets’ Super Bowl odds went down to almost half the price after the trade talks were confirmed.
After the trade talks were confirmed, New York sits as the seventh favorite to win after opening in ninth place. The top ten list of teams favored to win LVIII are as follows, odds via BetAnySports.
- Kansas City Chiefs: +300
- San Francisco 49ers: +350
- Philadelphia Eagles: +360
- Buffalo Bills: +450
- Cincinnati Bengals: +460
- Dallas Cowboys: +700
- New York Jets: +750
- Detroit Lions: +1000
- Baltimore Ravens: +1100
- Los Angeles Chargers: +1100
A Mile Ahead
A couple of days after Super Bowl LVII, we took a look at the free agency props and noticed that BetOnline had lines for Rodgers’ next team if he didn’t stay with the Packers.
At the time, the odds for him to land with the Jets were +200, giving you double the money you wagered. That same prop was at -10000 on Monday morning, before the rumor mill went into full steam.
With free agency upon us and more moves to be made by all 32 teams, there is still a lot of value available.
Now, with the Rodgers saga over, we can turn our head to the next drama in line: Where will Lamar Jackson play next season, if he doesn’t stay with the Ravens?
Currently, the Lions are the favorite to land him at +300. How about them big apples?
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.