Super Bowl LVIII Betting Takeaways
- Kansas City Chiefs (+600): Getting some more talent on defense will be key for the Chiefs.
- Buffalo Bills (+750): With Hamlin apparently well on the road to a full recovery, the Bills can turn their attention to shoring up their offensive line.
- San Francisco 49ers (+800): Aside from some better place-kicking, there’s not much room left for improvement by the 49ers.
- Philadelphia Eagles (+900): We’d be right to avoid the Eagles until they address their punter situation.
- Cincinnati Bengals (+900): The Bengals might be the one team where coaching is a concern.
Okay, that was a pretty good game. The turf in Glendale was a painted and slippery mess, but otherwise, Super Bowl LVII delivered in spades; Kansas City came back to beat Philadelphia 38-35 in a thrilling slugfest, covering as 1-point puppies on the closing NFL odds and blowing out the 51.5-point total established by US betting sites.
That’s old news – time to look ahead to Super Bowl LVIII, with Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada playing host on Sunday, February 11. The defending champions opened as the favorites at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review), with four other worthy Super Bowl LVIII contenders separating themselves from the rest of the pack.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (+600)
Scoring is the most important thing in football, and nobody does it better than Kansas City. They had the top-ranked offense on the 2022 DVOA charts at Football Outsiders, piloted by genius head coach Andy Reid and two-time league and Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.
The defense hasn’t always been there for Kansas City, but it was acceptably average this year at No. 17 in efficiency, not unlike three years ago when they won Super Bowl LII with the league’s No. 3 offense and No. 14 defense.
As bettors, we can trust the front office to keep this offense humming in 2023. Getting some more talent on defense will be key; Kansas City doesn’t get to pick until No. 31 in the draft this April (there’s one fewer pick in the first round – shame on you, Miami), but this year’s class is stocked with quality edge rushers. No problemo.
2. Buffalo Bills (+750)
The Bills have already moved up from +850 in early betting, and it’s easy to see why: They were Super Bowl LVII favorites for most of 2022, and maybe they would have run the playoff gauntlet had safety Damar Hamlin not suffered that cardiac arrest incident in Week 17.
With Hamlin apparently well on the road to a full recovery, Buffalo can turn their attention to shoring up their offensive line. They’ve got talented players everywhere on the field, but they could use some better run blocking from a unit that finished No. 13 in adjusted line yards according to FO.
3. San Francisco 49ers (+800)
Also moving up from +900 are the Niners, who were on the title track themselves until they ran out of healthy quarterbacks in the NFC Championship Game. They’re set up for success no matter who lines up under center next year. We’re guessing Brock Purdy gets the first shot if he’s healthy, with Trey Lance still in the mix and Jimmy Garoppolo probably on his way out the door.
San Francisco already shipped out their early-round picks this year to acquire both Lance and RB Christian McCaffrey, but aside from some better place-kicking, there’s not much room left for improvement by the Bay.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (+900)
The dreaded Super Bowl curse must be scaring people away from putting the Eagles in their NFL picks. But that would be silly in this particular case – as it was last year for the other team on our list. Philadelphia simply has too much talent to worry about the regression monsters, especially with Jalen Hurts at quarterback.
A new punter would be nice, though. Arryn Siposs’s work this year was a bit disappointing, most notably at the Super Bowl – although Siposs was coming off injury and maybe was pressed into service too early. Football nerds are only just starting to appreciate the importance of punters in the NFL, so maybe we’d be right to avoid Philly after all until they address this.
5. Cincinnati Bengals (+900)
Really, any of these five teams could have won Super Bowl LVII – they were all that good, and the future remains bright for all five. The Bengals might be the one team where coaching is a concern; Zac Taylor has yet to earn the same respect as his peers.
Cincinnati also seems to have ongoing issues with their offensive line, both in terms of health and overall quality. Beating the Bills in the Divisional Round without guard Alex Cappa and tackles La’el Collins and Jonah Williams was impressive, but it wasn’t enough to beat Kansas City in the AFC title game. Maybe they can fix this with the No. 28 pick in the draft.
Day One is coming up on April 27 at Union Station in Kansas City, with the Chicago Bears (+6500) selecting first and the Houston Texans (+25000) second. Until then, enjoy the offseason, and may the prolate spheroid be with you in 2023.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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