Best NFL Bets Today
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- This will be the first meeting between quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff since their 2018 classic, a 54-51 win by the Rams, the most points ever surrendered in a win in NFL history.
- In season openers in the Mahomes era, the Chiefs are averaging 37.8 points scored and 24.8 points allowed, for a whopping 62.6 combined points per game.
- Since 2015, 7-of-8 Detroit openers had at least 54 points, including 73 and 74 points in two years under coach Dan Campbell.
In the season opener, you can expect the Chiefs to show up for a banner night as their Super Bowl win is celebrated in front of the home crowd.
The Chiefs have always been prolific on offense in season openers under Patrick Mahomes, who has led his team to at least 33 points in Week 1 every year since 2018. The last five Kansas City openers have hit at least 54 combined points.
Top Offense vs. Bottom Defense?
The Chiefs finished 2022 on offense ranked No. 1 in yards, points, first downs, passing yards, passing touchdowns, and net yards per pass attempt. They will want to do better in home games this year, as the Chiefs only topped 27 points in one home game in 2022. They were oddly better on the road, but they will draw a Detroit defense that struggled mightily in 2022.
Detroit’s Suspect Defense
The Lions have a lot of hype this year to win the NFC North, but they have to deal with the fact that they were dead last on defense for much of 2022. Detroit finished 28th in points allowed, but it did finish 32nd in yards and first downs allowed. Detroit was also 31st in net yards per pass allowed and 30th in yards per carry allowed, so the run and pass were both major problems for this unit. There is no better test right away than Mahomes and the Chiefs in Kansas City.
Over 54 -110 at Bovada
- The Kansas City Chiefs have consistently dominated the AFC West, with the last time another team winning the division dating back to 2015.
- Head coach Andy Reid’s innovative game plans and the talented pieces provided to him have contributed to the Chiefs’ success, making them a formidable force in big games.
- The lack of continuity and ongoing struggles of other AFC West franchises, such as San Diego, Denver, and Las Vegas, further solidify the Chiefs’ position as the clear favorite to win the division.
Like death and taxes, the Kansas City Chiefs have a stranglehold on the AFC West. Unless Patrick Mahomes is injured and cannot play or every other Chiefs starter is injured, Kansas City is set to win another AFC West crown
The Last Time Someone Else Won the AFC West?
To put this question in proper context, the last time someone other than the red-clad Chiefs won was when – Star Wars: The Force Awakens movie came out and that was the Denver Broncos in 2015.
This stretch is made all the more remarkable by the fact Andy Reid and the front office have rebuilt this squad on the run and last year’s K.C. crew was among the youngest teams in the league.
Reid and Mahomes Make It Work
Though Reid has always been a brilliant offensive coach, his mindset seemed to change once he got to Kansas City after all the success he enjoyed in Philadelphia.
He was never known for winning big games in Philly and was often too conservative. That’s not the case with the Chiefs as he weekly has the most innovative game plans and is supplied the pieces to make them work.
Bumbling AFC West Franchises
If you look at San Diego, Denver, and Las Vegas, one is hard-pressed to see the continuity in any of those teams as annually they are trying to find the right coach and personnel and come up short in both facets.
This is the easiest choice of all the divisions to pick a winner, much like when Tom Brady and Bill Belichick dominated the AFC East for years.
Chiefs to Win AFC West -150 at BetOnline
- The AFC South rivals split last year, each winning at home.
- It will be the Jaguars’ debut of former Pro Bowl WR Calvin Ridley.
- Indy will have a quarterback battle in camp for the Week 1 starter.
Jacksonville is a chic pick by some NFL experts to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl for the first time – only the Jaguars, Houston Texans, Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions have never played in that game.
I’d certainly give Jacksonville the best chance of that group this year, although Detroit is pretty good. Houston has no chance. The Jags won the AFC South last year and then staged an incredible comeback to beat the Chargers 31-30 in the Wild Card round before losing 27-20 in Kansas City.
On the Rise
No question this is a team on the rise behind QB Trevor Lawrence, although he has to limit the mistakes. The former No. 1 overall pick had four first-half interceptions against the Chargers in that playoff game, which is why Jacksonville trailed 27-0 at one point. The Jags got Lawrence a new toy at last season’s Trade Deadline in landing former Falcons Pro Bowl receiver Calvin Ridley.
He couldn’t play in 2022 due to a gambling suspension but says he expects a 1,400-yard season in 2023. I don’t doubt it. The Jags will be short-handed up front as left tackle Cam Robinson faces a multi-game suspension for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drugs policy.
Who will be the Week 1 QB for Indy? I tend to doubt it’s rookie No. 4 overall pick Anthony Richardson simply because he’s such a project. It likely will be former Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew, and he’s solid. The Colts cratered last year due to poor QB play, but this is still a Super Bowl-caliber roster at many other positions. It will be the head coaching debut of ex-Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen.
I only like this at +3.5, not lower.
- Home team is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
- Jaguars are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 1.
Colts +3½ -105 at Bookmaker
- It’s the Broncos’ coaching debut of Sean Payton.
- Las Vegas swept the 2022 season series (2-0 ATS).
- The Raiders quarterback debut of Jimmy Garoppolo.
Carr Out, Jimmy G In
I’m assuming that Week 1 will be the Raiders’ regular-season debut of injury-prone Jimmy Garoppolo. News broke today that Jimmy G underwent surgery on his injured left foot after signing a free-agent contract with the team in March. Coach Josh McDaniels said he might be out until the start of training camp. That’s obviously not ideal for a quarterback learning a new offense/teammates.
The Raiders traded away one of the NFL’s top tight ends this offseason in Darren Waller to the Giants and now Las Vegas might have a Davante Adams problem on its hands. The All-Pro receiver said this recently about what the Silver & Black did this offseason, specifically trading away his buddy and college teammate QB Derek Carr: “[The front office] think this is the best bet for us right now to put us in a position to be urgent. We don’t see eye-to-eye on what we think is best for us right now.”
Out the Door?
Maybe Adams forces a trade by Week 1. But this is mainly about how I think new Broncos coach Sean Payton will get the best out of Russell Wilson, who reportedly is in the best shape of his career (“lean and mean.” The potential future Hall of Fame QB and that Broncos offense was unwatchable much of last year but coach Nathaniel Hackett was so far in over his head that he didn’t even make it through Year 1.
Payton is one of the best offensive minds around. Denver upgraded the offensive line in front of Wilson with tackle Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers.
Denver lost in OT at home to Las Vegas in Week 11 last year, 22-16, on a Carr-to-Adams 35-yard TD pass. The Broncos had a chance to potentially run out the clock with the lead late in regulation but blew it – no team had worse clock management last year than Denver did under Hackett.
I can’t stress enough how much of an upgrade Payton will be. The Raiders are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 road games, but we’ll take the spread out of this play.
Broncos -180 at Bovada
- Baker Mayfield is favored over Kyle Trask to replace Tom Brady for Bucs.
- Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS in its past six road games.
- Dalvin Cook may no longer be with the Vikings by Week 1.
The post-Tom Brady era – and he’s not unretiring after buying a piece of the Las Vegas Raiders – begins for the Bucs with probably Baker Mayfield at quarterback, although the former No. 1 pick and free-agent signee technically will compete with Kyle Trask, a 2021 second-round pick who has attempted three passes in his NFL career.
It would be a surprise if Mayfield doesn’t win the job. He’s 31-38 in the NFL and was 2-8 last year with the Panthers and Rams. Remember, the Bucs finished below .500 in 2022 even with Brady still playing at a pretty high level so there are holes.
It seems like everyone is down on the Vikings even though they were 13-4 last year and won the NFC North by four games. Granted, they were historically good/lucky in close games and were beaten pretty soundly at home in the Wild Card round by an average New York Giants team.
Minnesota beefed up a bad defense this offseason by adding end Marcus Davenport and cornerback Byron Murphy.
But the Vikes still have Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook – at least for now on Cook. He could be released after June 1 in a salary-cap move as the team is high on backup Alexander Mattison.
This writer loves Jordan Addison’s chances at winning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year slotted opposite Jefferson, who will be drawing many double teams. The Vikings aren’t winning a Super Bowl most likely but they still should be division contenders.
The Bucs have no idea who they are and probably would prefer to be terrible this year and select QB Caleb Williams atop the 2024 draft.
- Buccaneers are 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
- Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 1.
Vikings -6 -110 at BetOnline
Making the Best NFL Bets
In the world of sports betting, the NFL stands out as a prime choice for many enthusiasts. With a plethora of games throughout the season, including high-profile matchups and intense rivalries, there is always a wide variety of betting markets to explore.
By diving into team performance, matchup analysis and historical trends as well as using their vast betting experience, our experts curate the best NFL bets for players on almost every football game.
Breaking Down NFL Betting Markets
No matter which type of bet you’re interested in, we offer the best sports betting picks for a variety of options.
Against the Spread Betting: This market revolves around the point spread. When you place a bet against the spread, you predict whether a team will win by a certain margin (as the favorite) or lose by less than a specific margin (as the underdog). It adds an extra layer of excitement to the game as you consider the winner and the performance relative to the spread.
Moneyline Betting: Moneyline bets cut straight to the chase. Here, you’re simply wagering on which team will win the game outright, regardless of the point spread. The online sportsbook will show these odds as positive or negative numbers. A negative number represents the favorite, while a positive number indicates the underdog. It’s a straightforward way to bet on the winner without the complexity of spreads.
Over/Under Betting: This market lets you test your skills in predicting the total score of an NFL game. The oddsmakers set a specific number, and you have to decide whether the total combined score by both teams will be over or under that predetermined figure. It adds an extra layer of excitement to the game, regardless of which team comes out on top.
Player Prop Bets: If you’re fascinated by individual player performances, player prop bets are right up your alley. These bets allow you to wager on specific events or outcomes involving key players. You can place bets on things like how many yards a quarterback will throw, how many touchdowns a wide receiver will catch, or even the number of tackles a defensive player will make. It lets you focus on the performances of your favorite athletes.
Team Prop Bets: Team prop bets focus on predicting outcomes or events related to the team as a whole. You can wager on things like team totals for touchdowns and interceptions, or even whether they’ll score in specific quarters. Team prop bets provide an opportunity to analyze the collective performance and dynamics of the team.
Parlay Betting: Parlay betting is all about aiming high. It involves combining multiple bets into a single wager for a potentially larger payout. To win a parlay bet, you need to be correct on all the individual bets within your parlay. It’s a thrilling and high-risk, high-reward betting option that can add an extra level of excitement to your NFL experience.
Futures Betting: Futures bets allow you to make long-term predictions on future events in the NFL. These bet types typically involve betting on outcomes like the Super Bowl winner, conference champions or division winners well in advance. It’s a way to demonstrate your foresight and potentially lock in favorable betting odds before the regular season unfolds. The earlier players lock in their wagers, the higher the potential payouts are if they win.
Each of these NFL betting markets presents unique opportunities for you to engage with your favorite teams, showcase your knowledge and potentially walk away with a winning bet. So, dive in and enjoy the thrill of NFL betting!
Keys to Successful NFL Betting
Decades of betting experience and passion for the game of football, along with hours of poring over the latest football lines come together to help our team of handicappers determine the best NFL bets.
Our experts have put together a few betting tips you can use when you’re making football picks.
1. Remember that NFL player performance isn’t stagnant. Players evolve, improve and occasionally regress. Their nerves could get to them in playoff games. Analyze players and learn their patterns.
2. Remember that teamwork is pivotal. Key players can have impressive stats but they rarely carry a whole game. Researching team dynamics and watching players interact on the field is a crucial part of betting analysis.
3. The environment in which the game is played — the weather, the stadium and even the crowd — can have a significant impact on game outcomes. Whether you’re betting on straight games, combining multiple NFL lines into a parlay or placing a prop bet, you should consider how the environment plays a role in the outcome.
4. Stick the reputable online betting sites. One of the most important pieces of betting advice is that you should only use online sports betting platforms that you trust. Of course, you should still sign up for multiple to shop for the best betting lines.
Unleashing BMR’s Top NFL Bets for Today
At BMR, our dedicated team of betting experts is here to provide you with the best NFL bets available today. We understand the importance of thorough analysis when it comes to making informed betting decisions.
Our experts go the extra mile by diving deep into the latest team and player news, examining past performances and carefully evaluating the best betting odds from top online sportsbooks. We believe in offering you a comprehensive betting experience that is grounded in research and expertise.
FAQs — Best NFL Bets Today
What is the best bet on football?
The best bet on football depends on various factors such as team performance, matchup analysis and odds. It’s essential to do thorough research and consider all aspects before making a decision.
What is the easiest bet on NFL?
The easiest bet on the NFL is subjective, as it depends on individual preferences and knowledge. Some may find simple bets like moneyline (picking the winning team) easier to understand and predict.
How do you win big on football bets?
To win big on football bets, a combination of research, analysis and disciplined bankroll management is crucial. Identifying value bets, staying informed about team news, and being selective in your wagers can increase your chances of success.
How do you pick winning NFL bets?
Picking winning NFL bets involves analyzing team performance, studying matchup factors, considering historical trends and incorporating advanced metrics. It’s important to gather information, assess probabilities and make informed decisions based on thorough analysis.
What is the most common bet?
The most common bet in NFL betting is the point spread, where bettors wager on whether a team will win or lose by a certain number of points. This type of bet adds excitement and equalizes the odds between competing teams.