There are upsets every single week in college football, and that is where bettors tend to find the most value. While huge moneyline upsets are not as frequent, the payouts can be massive with just how far the spread is. For example in Week 1, Notre Dame was a huge favorite against Florida State, but the game went to overtime and had a chance for a massive payout for FSU moneyline bettors.
Looking ahead to Week 3, there are quite a few massive underdogs that would be seismic upsets should they win.
Here is a look at our best-upset picks and NCAAF odds for Week 3 in college football. While these are not likely to hit, there is some value to consider given the prices.
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Saturday, September 18, 2021 – 12:00 PM EDT at Milan Puskar Stadium
The Black Diamond Trophy is in play for the first time since 2017, and it will be awesome to see these rivals on the field. We're a little surprised the Hokies are an underdog given the promising start under Justin Fuente. This is a prime value to get some value.
West Virginia is a quality team but hasn't been as tested as the Hokies have. The home crowd will need to be raucous, and the Mountaineers' offense must be sharp. This will be a close battle, but I think the oddsmakers have simply misread this matchup.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Miami (FL) Hurricanes
Saturday, September 18, 2021 - 12:00 PM EDT at Hard Rock Stadium
The Hurricanes are 0-2 ATS this season, and we haven't been thrilled with how they played in either game. None of their supposed strengths entering the year have stood out as expected. They had one of the strongest analytical profiles in the country entering the year, but little has translated into a dominant team so far.
The Spartans, however, have found the right combination with quarterback Payton Thorne and running back Kenneth Walker III. The Spartans can win this one outright.
Auburn Tigers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, September 18, 2021 - 07:30 PM EDT at Beaver Stadium
Auburn hasn't played a Big Ten opponent in the regular season in 1931. The "Whiteout" will be a tough test, and junior Bo Nix will have to be efficient against a tough Penn State defense. The Nittany Lions need to slow the mighty Auburn rushing game and continue finding success passing downfield.
Can they do that reliably? Week 1's close win against Wisconsin looks less impressive as weeks go by and the Badgers struggle. I think Auburn has a great chance of pulling this road upset.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.