College Football Predictions: Will Alabama Beat Their Season Win Total?

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Bryce Young #9 of the Alabama Crimson Tide looks to pass against the Georgia Bulldogs during the 2022 CFP National Championship Game. Emilee Chinn/Getty Images/AFP.

The Alabama Crimson Tide expected to be rebuilding last year, and they still made it to the national championship. Bryce Young won the Heisman, and the Tide’s offense was one of the most potent in the country.

Still, all that matters in Tuscaloosa is titles. The bad news is that they have to replace all starting receivers and the starting running back along with the first-round left tackle. Thankfully, Alabama has the two best players from last season returning this year.

Alabama’s Over/Under is at 10.5 wins, and they are the favorites to win the title this year. Needless to say, expectations are high. The Tide has a tough SEC schedule with strong road opponents and a nice non-conference game against Texas. Can they go at least 11-1 this year? Let’s break down how Alabama looks before predicting the win total.

Alabama’s Strengths

Offensively, Alabama returns the Heisman winner. Bryce Young alone raises the floor of this offense with his ability to distribute, and he has another year under his belt as the starter and leader of this team. He is certainly a strength for the team.

The defensive strength is easily the pass rushers. Alabama has Will Anderson, the best defensive player in college football. The secondary will also be solid with Eli Ricks, but the second outside linebacker spot is a question mark. Alabama has a lot of B+ defenders, and they just need some of them to turn into A’s.

The special teams unit will be strong with Will Reichard, and Alabama’s coaching staff remains mostly the same.

Alabama’s Weaknesses

The main offensive weakness is the offensive line. Alabama’s line struggled last year, and they have to replace Evan Neal at left tackle. The team will rely on internal development, but the unit as a whole has to get significantly better for Alabama to dominate.

The rest of the offense has highs and lows. The Tide brings in plenty of transfer receivers and running backs, so the cast will be new. If everyone meshes with the system, the offense will be potent.

Alabama’s Toughest Games in 2022

Texas Longhorns

Alabama travels to Texas to play Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns. The Tide should be favored in that game, but playing on the road early in the year won’t be easy. Alabama lost to Texas A&M in a similar situation last year. This game will be early in the day, but it is still against a potent offense with plenty of talent and motivation.

Texas A&M

Alabama will be looking for revenge against Texas A&M. While Alabama plays at home and likely won’t lose to the same team in back-to-back years, the Aggies are easily the best team they will have to face this year.

Tennessee Volunteers

If you’re looking for a sneaky upset, look at Tennessee. The Vols are not back, but they are getting significantly better. If they have an early run, they may believe this is their year to beat Alabama at home. It’s unlikely, but don’t count them out.

Other Tough Teams

Alabama also has to play at Ole Miss and LSU while hosting the Auburn Tigers. They will be favored in every game, but they could be upset by any of these teams.

Win Total Prediction

In all likelihood, Alabama will win at least 11 games in the regular season. Alabama has only had multiple losses in the regular season twice since Saban’s first title with the Tide. However, there is not much value for the Over on this bet because the value swings for the Under.

If I had to guess, I would say Alabama goes 11-1 or 12-0. The Texas game provides challenges, and teams like Tennessee or Ole Miss could upset the Tide if the timing is perfect. I just can’t see multiple teams upsetting the Tide on their revenge tour.

The offense will be just as good, and the defense will be significantly better with the addition of Eli Ricks to the secondary.