This article actually started last Saturday night after Connecticut put away Miami 72-59 as 5.5-point favorites.
Global sportsbooks that are the first to the market opened the Huskies as six-point favorites with a total of 131.5. Within the hour of the release, UConn was pounded and moved to -7.
By Monday morning coach Danny Hurley’s team was a solid -7.5 and the total had been bumped up to 132.5 and the value buyers just found that too enticing and San Diego State began to receive more support and the Aztecs were moved to +7 and the total was tumbling as well.
About thirty minutes before tip-off, about 20% of books were posting San Diego State at +6.5 with the total lowered all the way to 130.5. As it turned out the closing line had Connecticut at -7 with a total of 131 at the NCAAB odds board.
The First Half
The first half total was well below a previously traditional number which would have the 131 total and been at 65.5. The level of sophisticated knowledge and numbers now grade those figures more accurately and the first half total betting odds were 60.5.
Part of that number was built in figuring both teams would have nerves and there would be a feeling out process on offense with two extremely strong defensive squads. That’s not how it started with San Diego State making four of their first five shots, two of which were threes. Connecticut matched that precision by draining four of their first five attempts with one turnover in the mix. So much for nervousness.
At that point, the Aztecs could not make a shot from near or far for over 11 minutes (0-14). At the same time, the Huskies were turning the ball over and missing shots of their own. Then UConn started playing their game and was running off missed shots and turnovers and scoring regularly in building a 36-20 lead with 3:15 left in the half.
From that juncture, both teams missed several shots inside three feet of the rim. Brian Dutcher’s crew managed two baskets in the final 195 seconds, but the Huskies never scored again and the halftime score was 36-24, and miraculously the total stayed Under.
The Second Half
San Diego State figured to make adjustments to slow down the Connecticut juggernaut. Also making adjustments were the oddsmakers, releasing the Huskies at -1 for the second half, figuring the Aztecs would make a comeback like they had the past two contests. The other betting news was the adjusted line had Connecticut -12.5 for the game and the total was 129.5.
Right from the start Dutcher’s team came out more aggressive. Instead of trying to run their standard half-court offense, his team began pushing the ball to find a rhythm and immediately they started getting better shots and making them.
The Aztecs were still having problems on defense, but their more attacking style was giving up fewer good looks to UConn. One aspect that would be San Diego State’s undoing was they started fouling and with just over 13 minutes left in the half, the Huskies were in the bonus. At that point on Twitter, people started complaining it was the women’s championship game all over, however, the more observant eye could see these were legitimate foul calls.
Dutcher’s crew stayed aggressive and Hurley’s guys got tentative and were only running a half-court offense which played into the Aztecs’ hands. With just under 10 minutes remaining San Diego State was down 15. Then, the grit of this team shined through and they went on a 14-4 run to cut the score to 60-55 with 5:19 remaining and the sense was here we go again.
On Connecticut’s next possession, the dagger came as Jordan Hawkins made a three to stretch the lead back to 8 points and they never allowed the Aztecs to get closer again. UConn won 76-59, handily covering the spread for a 6th straight time in the tournament. And by being brilliant from the free throw line at 24 for 27 (88.9%), the total went Over.
Epilogue
After a 14-0 season start, it is not easy to recapture what you had after losing six of eight, but Connecticut did. Here are the highlights.
- Connecticut has won a championship in four straight decades. (North Carolina did that from the 1980s to the 2010s)
- Connecticut has won 5 titles in 24 years. (Can we call them blue blood now?)
- Three consecutive Huskies’ head coaches have won championships.
- 4 of 5 Connecticut titles have come via going to the West Regional and playing in Texas for the Final Four.
- Going back to 2005 when it was first tracked, the betting public was a perfect 3-0 in the Final Four. That had never happened previously.
- UConn -7 vs. S.D. STATE
- UConn -6 vs. Miami
- Florida Atlantic +2.5 vs. S.D. STATE
- Connecticut was the 2nd-most bet team behind Alabama to win the championship before the tournament started.
See you next season!
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