How Did the Luis Severino Injury Affect the Yankees World Series Odds?

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Luis Severino #40 of the New York Yankees reacts after striking out JD Martinez #28 of the Boston Red Sox. Dustin Satloff/Getty Images/AFP.

The New York Yankees started the season off extremely hot. The pitching was overachieving, and the offense was stringing together some big hits.

As each month went by, the Yankees’ starting rotation and bullpen watched their ERA gradually increase while the offense’s production suddenly decreased.

Then, the Yankees lost Luis Severino, who had a 5-3 record with a 3.45 ERA on the season. He was already returning from a season-long injury and was expected to be a huge portion of the team’s success this season.

Severino suffered a lat injury that forced him onto the 60-Day Injured List.

Yankees’ Roster Moves

Eventually, the Yankees traded away Jordan Montgomery to the Cardinals, added Frankie Montas from the Athletics, and had to place Nestor Cortes on the injured list.

So now the Yankees are starting Domingo German and Clarke Schmidt while they wait for Severino and Cortes to return from injury.

With the Yankees struggling offensively and the pitching staff starting to bleed, things have gone south regarding their MLB odds of winning the World Series.

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Can the Yankees Rebound When Severino Returns?

Luis Severino isn’t lost for the season. He’s expected to make his first minor-league rehab start on Friday.

He’ll be back in time for the playoffs and might even be able to get in a couple of starts before the postseason. Therefore, Severino’s absence hasn’t affected the Yankees from winning the World Series. He’ll be back.

Yankees’ Hospital

Ultimately, the Yankees’ odds have shrunk because of the lack of consistency and injuries, not only because of Severino’s health. The entire bullpen was hit with the injury bug for the Yankees.

They also watched an All-Star starter reach the injured list in Nelson Cortes, and when the Yankees needed depth the most at pitching, they traded away Jordan Montgomery for an injured outfielder.

The bullpen also took a hit with so many injuries. Michael King won’t be back for the Yankees this season, along with Chad Green and Zack Britton. The Yankees are also missing out on Miguel Castro, Albert Abreau, Scott Effross, and Luis Gil, who are all on the injured list right now.

Waiting for Comebacks

When Severino returns along with Cortes, the Yankees’ starting rotation will look fascinating again. The Yankees would have:

  • Gerrit Cole
  • Frankie Montas
  • Luis Severino
  • Nestor Cortes
  • Jameson Taillon

That’s a solid starting rotation.

Cole and Montas will need to pitch more consistently, but Cole likely will if we base his future success on his current analytics.

Can The Yankees Win World Series When Healthy?

When the Yankees were healthy, they were playing their best baseball. In April, May, and June, the Yankees were the best team in baseball and it wasn’t even close.

We can’t forget that the Yankees were the first team to reach 70 wins. Of course, they’ve since fallen off a bit, but because the Yankees had dominated early, even their struggles in the second half of the season won’t hurt their chances at winning the AL East.

Trust Issues

The Yankees have struggled to score recently and are having to overuse arms in the pen. They don’t have guys that they can trust in the bullpen and their starting rotation is beaten up.

If the Yankees can put together a reliable rotation that can continually give quality starts, New York still has a chance to win the World Series.

Aaron Judge has certainly carried this team but when you also have the soon-to-be AL MVP on the squad, that certainly won’t hurt. Judge has been very clutch, hitting big home runs in big moments to help lead the Yankees to victory.

Odds Still Backup the Yankees

At +500, the Yankees are still the fourth likeliest team to win the World Series. All hope isn’t lost. The Dodgers are at +350, the Astros are at +425, the Mets are at +475 and then there’s the Yankees at +500.

They’re still given a higher chance at winning the World Series than last year’s champions. They’ll be able to hit the refresh button when most of their guys return from the injured list and then it’ll go time.

Therefore, I don’t think Severino’s absence has affected the Yankees and their World Series odds. It’s just the combination of the Yankees playing so well early and struggling so much lately.

The offense doesn’t have any excuse but the pitching staff does. The injuries have hurt this team but because they were so good early on, the Yankees can still cruise into the playoffs in the final month.