Yankees vs. Rays MLB Best Bet for July 9: “Buy Low” on Bombers and Rodon

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MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-118) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Yankees ML (-118)
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These have been rough times for Carlos Rodon, but he and the New York Yankees are ready to prove themselves in Tuesday’s MLB showdown against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Here’s why they belong in your picks for this highly anticipated matchup, according to top sportsbooks.

And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Dodgers vs. Phillies and Braves vs. Diamondbacks games.

New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Tuesday, July 09, 2024 – 06:50 PM ET at Tropicana Field

The sky is falling again in the Big Apple. The New York Yankees are in an epic tailspin, losing 13 of their last 17 games to sit in second place at 55-37 (plus-6.41 betting units) in the American League East, three games behind the Baltimore Orioles heading into Tuesday’s action.

Everyone’s going mental, of course. “It’s a difficult time,” manager Aaron Boone admitted after the Yankees dropped two of three to their eternal arch-rivals, the Boston Red Sox – at Yankee Stadium, no less.

Sounds like the perfect time to swoop in and put the Yankees in our baseball picks at a bargain price. As we go to press, New York is the -118 road favorite on the MLB odds board at BetOnline for Tuesday’s divisional matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays (44-46, minus-5.64 units), a team that we’ve been looking to fade here at the ranch for quite some time.

Who’s Starting for the Yankees?

Carlos Rodon (4.35 xFIP) is due up for New York, and if that makes you nervous, we understand. Rodon earned the “bust” label last year when the Yankees signed him away from the San Francisco Giants after he finished sixth in Cy Young voting for the National League. His 2022 campaign never really got off the ground because of injuries; this year, Rodon’s Yankees are up 1.15 betting units on a team record of 11-7, but with the Over at 11-6-1.

The thing is, Rodon looked solid in May and early June before allowing 20 earned runs in three straight starts. But to be fair, that was at Boston, versus Atlanta, and Toronto. Rodon looked better in his most recent start, allowing all three runs to Cincinnati (+163 away) in a 3-2 loss last Wednesday. He’ll face a Tampa team this Tuesday that ranks No. 19 in hitting on the FanGraphs WAR charts, six spots ahead of the Reds, but worse than his previous three opponents.

Who’s Starting for the Rays?

Are you ready for the Ryan Pepiot Experience? Pepiot (3.98 xFIP) is the nominal No. 4 hurler in Tampa’s stripped-down rotation, enjoying his first full year as a starter after coming over from the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Tyler Glasnow trade.

Pepiot’s got some stuff with his change-up and his 95-mph fastball, but that’s about all at this point in his development. This makes it harder for Pepiot to put in those requisite six innings teams are looking for these days; indeed, the Rays are 1-3 in Pepiot’s last four starts, all of them truncated, to sit at 7-8 on the season (Over 7-6-2).

This is especially problematic for Tampa Bay because they’ve got the No. 29-ranked bullpen on the FanGraphs WAR charts, even worse than the Yankees at No. 20. We’ve been searching for good spots to fade the Rays; their minus-67 run differential is last in the AL East, and the equivalent of a 37-53 Pythagorean record – still seven games worse than their actual record despite getting swept by the Texas Rangers in Arlington by a combined score of 20-5.

The Pick

It’s entirely possible both these teams will reek of heinosity when they take the field this Tuesday in St. Pete. But the value should be with New York now that their early-season bubble has burst, and there shouldn’t be too many surprises under the Tropicana dome, with both teams enjoying a day of rest on Monday. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.

MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-118) at BetOnline

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Yankees ML (-118)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.