MLB Pick: Mets ML (+129) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have a big 16-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Wednesday including one doubleheader. And we have three plays that we feel hold great betting value at the top-rated sportsbooks.
These plays and the latest MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Wednesday comes in the Subway Series, where our model favors a side when the Yankees visit the Mets.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks:
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets
Wednesday, June 26, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Citi Field
There has been some Rookie of the Year hype surrounding Luis Gil of the Yankees, but we think he has been overachieving relative to his peripherals. Therefore, we are betting on Sean Manaea and the Mets to pull the upset in the Subway Series on Wednesday.
Roughed Up Last Start
The rookie Gil is a nice 9-2 with a 2.77 ERA that ranks 11th in the majors, but his metrics suggest he has been overachieving, at least prior to his last start. That outing resulted in his worst start of the season as he was roughed up for seven earned runs while lasting just 1.1 innings. Sure, that was extreme, but we still see it as the beginning of a correction in the American League odds.
You see, Luis has always struggled with control at every level and that has remained true in this rookie Major League campaign with an ugly walk rate of 4.54/9. That helps explain the disparity between the nice ERA and the 3.86 xFIP, and he has also been lucky with a .222 BABIP. So while he is not as bad as his last start, he is not as good as his current ERA either due to his control issues.
Consistent Season So Far
We think that Manaea is the opposite in that we feel he is better than his 4.16 ERA despite his xFIP lining up closely at 4.23. The reality is that Manaea has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his 14 starts this season. The reason for the ERA and xFIP is that he was just dreadful in the other three starts allowing a combined 20 runs in 13 innings. We still like his overall consistency though.
Sean has a nice strikeout rate of 9.21/9 with a good swinging-strike rate of 11.2%. And he has actually pitched through some bad luck with a 69.2% strand rate, especially unlucky given the nice strikeout total.
The Pick
Manaea is not overpowering but generates strikeouts with his sinker/slider combo, with that slider having a very good 108 Stuff+ rating. We look for continued success for Manaea while at the same time looking for continued correction for Gil. That has us backing the Mets as home underdogs in Flushing Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Mets 5 – Yankees 3
MLB Pick: Mets ML (+129) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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