XFL Pick: Roughnecks vs. Renegades Under 42 (-110) at Bovada
In the final week of the XFL’s 2023 regular season, there are still two playoff spots to decide. We know DC and Houston will host games in the first round of the playoffs next week. But the last spot in the North is between St. Louis and Seattle, and the last spot in the South is between Arlington and San Antonio.
Every game counts for something for at least one team this weekend, so we have included our preview of the Week 10 schedule with our best bet that you can find at the best US sportsbooks.
Houston Roughnecks vs. Arlington Renegades
Sunday, April 23, 2023 – 03:00 PM EDT at Choctaw Stadium
The Renegades are actually a 1-point home favorite against the Roughnecks, who are in the playoffs already. The total is 42 points.
If San Antonio loses to the best team (DC) on Saturday, then these teams will enter Sunday knowing they are going to meet the following week in Houston in the playoffs. That could really alter the strategy for both teams, who would have no reason to show the opponent their best stuff or play their best players the full game with the playoffs already set.
However, if San Antonio does pull off an upset, then the Renegades better win too to get that last playoff spot for sure. But in that scenario, would it not benefit Houston to sit back and play a fake game plan to throw the Renegades off and allow them in the playoffs?
That could backfire too, because the Renegades, with Luis Perez at quarterback, are a more dangerous opponent than the Brahmas.
Where Should You Put Your Money?
A lot to decide here, but the most likely scenario would seem to involve San Antonio losing Saturday and this game being a warm-up for both teams. With some of their offensive struggles to begin with, the under always felt like a good pick.
Throw in the fact that both teams could be going through the motions to get to the playoffs next week healthy, and the under 42 at -110 betting odds is our favorite bet of the Week 10 slate in the XFL.
Orlando Guardians vs. St. Louis Battlehawks
Saturday, April 22, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at The Dome at America’s Center
To kick things off this Saturday, St. Louis is a 9-point home favorite with a total of 48 points. The Battlehawks have a few different scenarios to make the playoffs over Seattle:
- St. Louis win + Seattle loss.
- St. Louis loss + Seattle loss gives the Battlehawks the tiebreaker.
- St. Louis win by scoring 19 more points than the Sea Dragons score against Vegas on Sunday to finish with a higher ranking in points scored and allowed.
Yes, we are getting deep into tiebreakers for this one, but that is the situation St. Louis put itself in after losing 30-12 with an awful fourth quarter against Seattle last week.
AJ McCarron was supposed to be the difference for this St. Louis team, the preseason odds-on favorite to win the championship, but he was outplayed by XFL passing leader Ben DiNucci.
In fact, you could argue McCarron had his worst game a week after missing a game due to injury. The Battlehawks are going to need a huge effort from him and to practically run up the score to give them the best shot at making the playoffs over Seattle.
Is Orlando Getting Better?
As for Orlando, it has been a lousy season with a 1-8 record and the worst scoring differential (minus-81) by far, but the team has competed harder in recent weeks.
They could play spoiler to St. Louis here just by not being blown out against a Battlehawks team that has one win by more than 13 points this season.
DC Defenders vs. San Antonio Brahmas
Saturday, April 22, 2023 – 03:00 PM EDT at Alamodome
The Defenders (8-1) know they will host a playoff game next week, but they are still a 3-point favorite on the road in this game with a total of 42 points.
The Defenders have been the best team in the XFL this season, and they can definitely finish 9-1 by beating a San Antonio team that continues to be the worst offense in the league. On the plus side, the Brahmas finally scored more than 15 points in a game again last week. Unfortunately, they have not done that against any team not named Orlando this year.
DC's Defense
But the Defenders could use some good tape on defense to get ready for the playoffs. The defense has been too unreliable in recent weeks, and last week against Arlington, the Defenders squandered an 11-point lead late in the game.
At least the defense stopped Arlington on every 2-point conversion try in overtime to get the 28-26 win, but we need to start seeing more championship-caliber defense or this team could fall to Seattle or Houston in the playoffs.
Jordan Ta'amu continues to be a great addition to the Defenders, and he was efficient again last week while also getting some rest.
He may not need to play much of this game either, but the Defenders have been so good offensively, and the Brahmas have been so bad against non-Orlando opponents that the Defenders just may cover this one without playing their best.
Vegas Vipers vs. Seattle Sea Dragons
Sunday, April 23, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Lumen Field
The final playoff spot will be decided in the final game on Sunday when the Sea Dragons host the Vipers. The Sea Dragons are an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 47 points.
The Vipers are the XFL’s snake-bit team as they rank No. 2 in yards per pass (6.9) and first down rate (34.3%) behind only DC, but they are 2-7 thanks to a terrible defense and four losses by one possession.
We outlined the playoff scenarios before for St. Louis in their competition with Seattle for this last spot. If Seattle wins this game, which it should, it will likely make the playoffs after last week’s 30-12 win over St. Louis gave the team a huge edge in the standings and scoring rankings.
Sea Dragons Will Get the Playoff Spot
Seattle has been a very good team at times this year. Ben DiNucci outplayed AJ McCarron last week. He leads the league in passing yards by more than 600 yards. DiNucci also leads the Sea Dragons in rushing with 264 yards, ranked No. 8 in the XFL.
Receiver Jahcour Pearson leads the XFL with 57 catches and 628 yards. That is a big deal when former NFL star Josh Gordon is his teammate. But this offense has talent, and the team has played well enough to be the team that could upset the DC Defenders in the playoffs next week.
If you want to see the best playoff matchups, then you should root for Seattle to deliver in this game and get that last spot.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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