XFL Pick: Renegades – Roughnecks Under 41.5 (-110) at Bovada
The XFL playoffs kick off this weekend with the winners of the two divisions, Houston Roughnecks and DC Defenders, hosting the two wild card teams: the Arlington Renegades and Seattle Sea Dragons.
The Defenders have been the best team throughout the season thanks to the No. 1 offense, and Houston has been one of the best defensive teams under head coach Wade Phillips. Both are favored at home to advance to the championship game in two weeks, but we will see if the third time is the charm for Seattle and Arlington, who are both 0-2 against this weekend’s foe.
We have previewed both playoff matchups below with our best betting pick of the weekend. You can find XFL betting markets at the best US betting sites.
Arlington Renegades vs. Houston Roughnecks
Saturday, April 29, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at TDECU Stadium
The Arlington Renegades (4-6) are a 6.5-point road underdog against the Houston Roughnecks (7-3), with a total of 41.5 points.
Earlier this season, the Roughnecks put together wins of 23-14 (Week 2) and 25-9 (Week 10) against Arlington, which is statistically in the running for the worst offense in the XFL.
On the one hand, you could argue the teams are different than they were in Week 2. Houston's quarterback Brandon Silvers has struggled in recent weeks, which brings down the whole offense. Arlington also traded for quarterback Luis Perez during the season to improve that position.
Also, the Week 10 game last Sunday is a bit of a misleading data point, as both teams knew before kickoff that they would be right here in this matchup Saturday in the playoffs. Arlington clinched the last playoff spot thanks to San Antonio’s loss last Saturday. You could say they gave a minimal effort to win that game.
Defenders Still Need Improvement
However, there are other truths you can deduce from these games. One, Perez has not improved the Arlington offense nearly enough to think it will score many points in this game. Perez played the entire Week 10 game for Arlington and still only put up 9 points against Houston’s defense as he struggled to hit big plays.
The running game, which has been poor all year for Arlington, also failed to get anything going against Houston for the second time.
Then there is the Houston offense running wild for 196 yards on Arlington last week. The backup quarterback, Cole McDonald, did almost anything he wanted to as he completed 10-of-11 passes for 120 yards.
Houston Can Win This Comfortably
Houston is just a better team with better coaching than Arlington. The only real downside is that Silvers has not played well down the stretch for Houston, and the Renegades led the XFL with 13 interceptions. He cannot give them short fields with turnovers in this game.
But Silvers does not have to play great for Houston to win this game comfortably. Just let Phillips cook up something fresh on defense and get after Perez.
The Roughnecks had 35 sacks in the regular season, which is 9 more than the next closest defense. While the Renegades had a league-high 13 interceptions, Houston’s pressure had them right there behind them with 12 picks.
Bet on the Total
Arlington has been held to 15 points in 7-of-10 games this season. All but two of Arlington’s games have finished under 41.5 points this season. One was Week 1 when they won after getting a pair of pick-sixes. Another was the recent 28-26 loss to DC, a team that is struggling on defense now.
But with Houston’s offense also showing some signs of struggle, and with the defensive intensity the playoffs can bring to a game, the best bet here is to take the under 41.5 points at -110 betting odds.
Seattle Sea Dragons vs. DC Defenders
Sunday, April 30, 2023 – 03:00 PM EDT at Audi Field
Sometimes, it is the playoff game before the championship game that is the real contest to decide that season’s ultimate winner.
This might be one of those games, as the DC Defenders (9-1) defend their near-perfect record as a 3-point home favorite over the Seattle Sea Dragons (7-3) in a game with a total of 48.5 points.
The Rematch We've Been Waiting For
If you like offensive shootouts, this could be the game of the year. These teams just met in Week 8 and the Defenders barely escaped with a 34-33 win, which is a sign of the struggles they have had in the second half of the season.
The offense is still great behind quarterback Jordan Ta'amu, but the running game is not as dominant as it was early in the year, and the defense finished allowing 24 points per game, the third worst in the league. Seattle allowed a league-low 17 points per game.
What usually happens in the playoffs when a pass-happy, offensive-driven, bad defense team faces a No. 1 scoring defense that can move the ball well? It usually goes the way of the defensive team, though the Defenders sure know how to pull out the close wins.
They did it to Seattle back in Week 1 with a 22-18 finish after the defense stopped Ben DiNucci – the XFL’s leading passer – with 2,671 yards, late in the fourth quarter. They did it again in Week 8’s 34-33 win after DiNucci, the 6th-leading rusher in the league too, was stopped on a 2-point conversion run that could have won the game for Seattle.
Are the Defenders Really That Good?
The Defenders have won their last three games by 4 total points, and that came after a 37-36 loss to Orlando, the Guardians’ only win all season (1-9). The Brahmas would have possibly won against the Defenders last week had they not missed a 53-yard field goal in the final minute of a 29-28 loss.
Again, football fans are very used to seeing top offenses vs. top defenses in championship game matchups. That would seem to set up well here with Houston coming out of the South and DC out of the North.
But Seattle is the second-best team in the XFL with the right amount of firepower, including former NFL receiver Josh Gordon, to deal with the Defenders in a shootout, which is seemingly all they play these days.
The Defenders have scored at least 28 points in eight straight games. The Defenders have also allowed at least 26 points in five straight games coming into Sunday’s showdown.
Look Out for a Close Game
It just may come down to DiNucci delivering on a game-winning drive, a situation that he has not been great in this year. But the way the Defenders keep having to get a final stop on defense, it would be a surprise if this game was not very close and very high scoring.
Those who tune in may be rewarded with the best playoff game the XFL will have this year.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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