The Texas Rangers are one win away from their first World Series title in franchise history after jumping out to a 10-0 lead by the third inning in Game 4 before winning11-7, and we are here with three best bets for Game 5.
These are value bets mostly based on our proprietary model, thus when we make underdog plays, it means we project long-term profit at the odds posted even with a sub-.500 record. While we lean toward the Rangers wrapping up the championship, our three actual bets for Wednesday are on the 5-inning side and total and the full game total, with odds from the best offshore sportsbooks.
Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Wednesday, November 1, 2023 – 08:03 PM EDT at Chase Field
Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks came back to earth the final month of the season and into the playoffs after outperforming his metrics up to that point, so we are backing the hotter Nathan Eovaldi and the Rangers over the first five innings.
Really a Cy Young Candidate?
Gallen is considered to be in the running for the National League Cy Young Award, but with all due respect, we do not feel he is worthy of that honor as his ERA was much better than his peripherals until the final month of the season, when his crash back down to earth ultimately allowed his final ERA of 3.47 to align with his 3.49 xFIP.
Well, those late-season struggles have carried over in the post-season, during which he has posted a 5.47 ERA and 5.23 xFIP through five starts with a horrific K/BB ratio of 5.93/4.28 per 9. Zac was erratic in Game 1 of this series despite escaping with allowing only three runs in five innings, as he struggled with command issuing four walks, and he could simply be gassed right now as his 210 regular season innings were a career-high.
Better Starter Right Now
Conversely, Eovaldi seemed to get stronger as the year went on. He finished his first season with the Rangers at 10-5 with a 3.63 ERA, 3.96 xFIP and a good strikeout rate of 8.25 K/9. But perhaps the biggest story for Eovaldi was a sudden velocity jump from to 95.1 MPH in his final start of the regular season after peaking at 93.9 MPH his previous three starts.
Nathan has maintained that improved velocity since then while proceeding to post a 3.52 ERA with a better 2.63 xFIP in the post-season, as his strikeout rate had exploded to 10.57 K/9. Granted, he comes off his worst post-season start in Game 1 allowing five runs in 4.2 innings, but there was clearly nothing wrong with his arm as he had eight strikeouts while topping out at 96.1 MPH.
Thus, we like Eovaldi’s chances of bouncing back with his rediscovered velocity and are backing him for the first five innings vs. the struggling Gallen.
Predicted Score: Rangers 4 – Diamondbacks 2 (1st 5 Innings)
MLB Pick: Rangers (1st 5 Innings) (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
10-0 Hole Last Night
With the potential of Gallen not even going five innings and the poor Arizona long relief being called on early, we are also betting the Over for the first five innings.
We have mentioned throughout these playoffs that the Diamondbacks’ long/middle relief was the reason why they had the highest bullpen xFIP of any playoff team after September 1st and the whole world saw that on display last night when they opted to go with a bullpen game, promptly allowing 10 runs in the first three innings.
With Gallen clearly not what he was earlier in the season, it would appear the choices tonight for Arizona would be to either push their seemingly fatigued starter or go to the bullpen early again. It seems that both of those options bode well for an early Over, although we do not anticipate another early-10-run outburst.
The early pitching situation looks better for Texas, but that may not matter as the Rangers could score or almost score enough runs to cover this first half Over by themselves.
Therefore, we are adding the five-inning Over to our Game 5 betting portfolio as well.
MLB Pick: Over 4.5 (1st 5 Innings) (-103) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Probably “Regular” Texas Relief
For our third play for this game, we are also betting the Over for the full game.
We have already covered the struggles of the Arizona bullpen since September, but the main reason the Rangers are only a lean for us for the whole game is their own bullpen does not appear to be in as good a shape as it was a few days ago. However, that view does give nice value to the Over,
You see, Texas had three normal starters at their disposal out of the bullpen before Game 3 in Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning, However, with Max Scherzer getting injured early in Game 3, Gray was brought in early and now lines up to start a potential Game 7, while Heaney started Game 4 last night. That leaves Dunning, who pitched one inning last night, as the only starter available out of the pen tonight.
Our best guess is that with the Rangers holding the 3-1 series lead, they would refrain from using Dunning tonight, holding him back in case he is needed for bulk relief in potential Games 6-7. Thus, expect the “normal” Texas bullpen to be used after Eovaldi exits, and that unit has a weak post-season xFIP of 4.83.
So our third bet is on the full game Over at -113 betting odds for Game 5 on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Rangers 6 – Diamondbacks 5
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-113) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
