NCAAF Pick: Wisconsin Over 8½ Wins (-160) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Old-school smash-mouth football fans may have lost another ally. After being associated with a physical running game that grinded out win after win in the Big Ten, Wisconsin appears poised to go in a bold new direction on offense.
The Badgers brought in a new head coach in Luke Fickell, who took Cincinnati to the College Football Playoff—the only group of five team ever to reach that height—and an offensive coordinator known for pushing the limits on air attacks.
Despite the changes in store for the program, Wisconsin also brings back a large number of the players that earned it the reputation of being a slobber knocker king. All of this adds up to a potential monster season for the Badgers before everything changes in the Big Ten… again.
Key Facts
- Wisconsin has a new head coach and offensive coordinator.
- The offense returns four starting linemen and the top rusher.
- Eight starters return on defense.
Offense
The most significant newcomer might be offensive coordinator Phil Longo, who built a UNC Tar Heels offense that was among the nation’s leaders in passing and scoring. Longo worked with quarterbacks Sam Howell, now starting for Washington in the NFL, and Drake Maye, a Heisman candidate each of the last two years.
Now he’ll be doing the same with Wisconsin’s offense and brought in a quarterback to jump-start the transition in former Oklahoma and SMU passer Tanner Mordecai. A sixth-year player, Mordecai threw for more than 7,000 passing yards (enough to rank him in the top four in Wisconsin’s career passing lists with one year to go) and 72 touchdowns (more than any Wisconsin passer ever) the last two seasons with the Mustangs. Longo and Fickell also brought in transfers from Oklahoma and Mississippi State to back up this year and take over in the future.
Mo & Co.
Mordecai and company will have plenty of targets to catch their passes. Wisconsin’s top three receivers from last season return and are joined by USC’s CJ Williams, Cincinnati’s Will Pauling and Oklahoma State’s Bryson Green.
Then there are the holdovers from Wisconsin’s famous ground attack. The Badgers return four starting linemen from last season and bolster the unit with two starters who followed Fickell from Cincinnati.
Last season’s top two running backs also return in Braelon Allen (1,242 yards and 11 touchdowns) and Chez Mellusi (473 yards, 2 scores).
Defense
The defense also has a new coordinator, but the changes look to be less sweeping on that side of the ball, at least in year one. That’s because Wisconsin returns eight starters from a unit that had the second-best passing defense and fifth-best overall D in the Big Ten last season.
The team’s top three tacklers last year were all linebackers, and all three are back in Naema Njongmeta, Jordan Turner and CJ Goetz.
The line and pass rush loses a pair of starters to the NFL in edge rusher Nick Herbig and nose tackle Keeanu Benton, who were one-two on the team in sacks and tackles for loss. Three others return, and transfer portal additions Jeff Pietrowski (Michigan State) and Darian Varner (Temple) will get the chance to fill the holes in the unit.
The top cover corner returns in Alexander Smith, and Wisconsin filled a hole at the other corner spot with Boston College’s Jason Maitre. The safety spots will also get a boost with the return of Hunter Wohler, who missed most of last season with a broken leg.
Schedule
The schedule is set up for a running start to the Fickell/Longo era. Wisconsin should be prohibitive favorites in each of the first five games, giving the team an opportunity to have all the new pieces gel before the meat of the Big Ten hits the schedule.
The non-conference slate includes home games with Buffalo and Georgia Southern sandwiched around a trip to Washington State (Week 2). Wazzu surprised the Badgers at Wisconsin last season, so the Cougars will have Wisconsin’s full attention.
Purdue and Rutgers follow, along with a week off, giving Wisconsin a chance to be clicking by the time it heads to Iowa in Week 7. Wisconsin also hosts Ohio State in Week 9 but misses out on Michigan and Penn State.
The Pick
We see Wisconsin starting 5-0 and contending for a West Division crown. Even if the Badgers lose both marquee games (Iowa and OSU) and drop another road game in the league, they should be a fairly comfortable Over.
We’ve got them at nine regular season wins for your NCAAF picks with a good chance of getting 10.
NCAAF Pick: Wisconsin Over 8½ Wins (-160) at BetOnline
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