MLB Pick: Royals First-Five Innings -1 (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s action.
There is a particular game that interests me: the White Sox vs. Royals. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Royals’ first-half run-line.
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Saturday, April 06, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Kauffman Stadium
Chicago’s Starter
Chicago starts Chris Flexen tonight. Flexen is an easy pitcher to like only if you somehow forget about his last season. His ERA declined from 3.73 in 2022 to 6.86 in 2023.
A major part of his decline was that he lacked the stuff to get batters out when seeing them for a second or third time in a given game. His ERA was 6.82 in his second time through the order and 11.66 in his third time. We saw this exact problem take place in his 2024 season-opener when Atlanta roughed him up for his second time through the order.
In terms of features like spin and movement, his pitches are unimpressive and thus easy for batters to figure out.
Kansas City’s Lineup
I like the Royals tonight because they rank seventh with a .504 slugging rate against Flexen’s pitches from righties.
Skeptics will say that the Royals’ run production has come overwhelmingly from two isolated games, which means that they are inconsistent. However, their numbers against Flexen’s pitches from righties remain strong even when you factor out their two best offensive performances.
They clearly and consistently like facing Flexen’s stuff, and they get a pitcher who throws this stuff poorly.
Michael Wacha’s Outlook
Michael Wacha starts for the Royals tonight. He gets a much easier test tonight than he did in his season-opener, when, despite his comfort with his beloved whiff-inducing changeup, he allowed three runs in five innings in Baltimore.
The White Sox have scored a total of five runs in their past seven games, making them a great lineup for Wacha to bounce back against.
I don’t like Kansas City’s bullpen in general, so we’ll stick to trusting Wacha.
MLB Pick: Royals First-Five Innings -1 (+100) at Bovada
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