This is it! The final week of preseason is here and then the games begin for real.
Let’s talk about three of the most important things to consider before betting your NFL picks on the final game of the exhibition slate.
Key Facts
- Key Backup QB Matchups: Emphasize backup quarterback matchups in Week 3 preseason games as starters rest. Experienced passers facing less-seasoned counterparts impact offensive dynamics and outcomes.
- Cautious Unit Sizing: Reduce wager sizes significantly during the preseason, avoiding overestimation of player performance. Remember that preseason games are dress rehearsals, not true competitions.
- Maximize Line Value: Compare lines from multiple sportsbooks to secure the best odds. Even slight point differences matter, potentially affecting win-loss outcomes. Utilize reputable offshore sportsbooks for favorable odds and efficient transactions.
1. Backup Quarterbacks Are Key
Many of the preseason Week 3 lines will look strange to the average bettor because there will be some very good teams tagged as underdogs by the oddsmakers, which will seem like a bargain to the uninitiated. But we all know that the vast majority of the players on the field in the final preseason game will either be backups this season or unemployed shortly thereafter.
In most cases, the starters will likely either sit or play a series, maybe two, if the coach feels they need a few more reps before the season begins in earnest. Knowing this, we must ask ourselves, which position is the most important on the field?
All About the QB
The quarterback, of course, and it is critical that you scan the preseason Week 3 slate and find the biggest quarterback mismatches. The passers with the most experience, particularly those who were once starters at one time during their career against journeymen or young quarterbacks who were picked late in the draft and just trying to secure a spot.
The men under center are key to the offense and the easiest to compare. As we saw in preseason Week 2, many of the starters got their reps and will likely be on the sidelines for preseason Week 3 so focus on the QBs who will get the lion’s share of the workload and let those matchups be your guide.
2. Tread Lightly
This is the preseason and unit size must be slashed. If your average unit size is $100 then at least cut it in half and make your plays $50 per unit. Quartering your unit size is even smarter, and if you are a bettor who uses confidence ratings in your NFL picks (1 to 5 units with 1 being an average bet, scaled up to 5 as a lock of the year), toss that strategy out until the regular season begins.
We can get caught up in manufacturing opinions simply to create action. Remember, you won’t know many of the players on the field in preseason Week 3 so why would you want to risk your hard-earned money on them?
Only a Dress Rehearsal
It simply doesn’t make sense and we should also consider that these games are meaningless which means the coaches are not necessarily playing to win. This is a final dress rehearsal for the real thing and not a true competition. Don’t place more emphasis on the preseason than the men on the sidelines calling the shots.
If you find yourself consistently losing in the preseason then it is because you are working on the premise that the teams competing are a reflection of what they will be in the regular season.
There’s a Reason
Nothing could be further from the truth so make sure you take a step back and realize just because the players are wearing Bills, Chiefs, or Bengals’ uniforms doesn’t mean those preseason units will play like top contenders. They are backups for a reason and just happen to be wearing the uniform of whatever team they are trying to make.
“A lot of people have a difficult time stepping back and doing a re-valuation and deciding ‘I was wrong’. A lot of people want to continue on in denial until they’re completely broke.” – Billy Walters
3. Value Counts
As long as you are going to bet then you might as well get the best line. It’s simple, right? This is an ideal opportunity to reacquaint yourself with the sportsbook apps you may have downloaded in the offseason in preparation for this year but you haven’t yet become familiar with.
Or maybe you have only been using one sportsbook and believe that to be good enough. Well, it certainly suffices if you’re a square but if you want to get the best bang for your betting buck then you need to be armed with three or more books so that you can compare point spreads, totals, and moneylines.
Little Details
Half points can be critical, they can be the difference between a loss and a push or a push and a win. Sometimes you can even find a 1 to 1 ½ point differential which, in this information age, is enormous as lines move quickly and sportsbooks tend to follow each other even if the money hasn’t moved the line on its own.
Go to BMR’s NFL Odds page and you will find the top-rated offshore sportsbooks. These are the best books in the world for bonuses, customer service, and easy-to-navigate mobile sites, and all of them provide quick and easy withdrawals when one is requested.
Compare the point spreads and odds during the preseason and regular season and choose the sharpest line. It will pay dividends in the long run.
Calculators
