Top NCAAB Pick: Over 146.5 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We have another nice card of NCAA Basketball action on Wednesday, and we are here with our three best bets provided by our main offshore sportsbooks.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. With that said, we only have major conference matchups for our three best bets on Wednesday, highlighted by the Texas vs. Marquette matchup.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wednesday, December 06, 2023 – 06:00 PM ET at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum
In a matchup of good offense against good defense, we will side with the offense in this case and lay the small spot with Wake Forest at home hosting an offensively suspect Rutgers team.
3-Point Shooting a Strength
Wake Forest enters at 4-3 with all three losses coming against good competition (Utah, Geogia, LSU), either on the road or on neutral courts. They are 3-0 here at home, where they come off an excellent 82-71 win over a Florida team rated 33rd in the country overall on Kenpom. By comparison, their Rutgers opponent tonight is ranked 63rd.
While the Demon Deacons are not terrible defensively, allowing an eFG% of 48.3%, their strength is their offense, where they rank 57th in efficiency and 53rd in eFG%. Perhaps most importantly they are shooting 36.1% from beyond the arc. That ability to shoot over any defense with 3-pointers helps counteract facing a Scarlet Knights defense ranked a stout 12th in efficiency.
Shooting Woes
Rutgers comes in at 5-2, but the highest Kenpom-rated team they have beaten is 177th-ranked Georgetown, while the two losses came when facing good teams, dropping the season opener to Princeton on a neutral floor and then getting blown out at home 76-58 by Illinois in their conference opener Saturday.
Illinois laid the groundwork for how to attack the normally stout Scarlet Knights defense by hitting 42.9% (9-for-21) from 3-point land, and Rutgers is in trouble when not shutting teams down, as this is a poor shooting team that ranks 293rd in eFG%, hitting on just 46.1% of 2-point and 30.4% of 3-point attempts.
The Pick
There is also a huge disparity at the foul line where Wake Forest is 13th in the country in free throw shooting, while Rutgers is 313th. This makes it easier for Wake to pull away, so give the points on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Wake Forest 76 – Rutgers 68
NCAAB Pick: Wake Forest –3.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Texas Longhorns vs. Marquette Golden Eagles
Wednesday, December 06, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum
Although the scoring may come via different means, we do think both Texas and Marquette will be able to play to their scoring strengths and we are thus betting the Over when these teams meet in Milwaukee Wednesday.
Balanced Offense
For this matchup, Texas comes in at 6-1 with the only loss coming 81-71 on a neutral floor to defending national champion Connecticut. The Longhorns scored at least 80 points in all six wins except the last one, where there was no need while cruising to a 77-58 win over Texas State.
The Longhorns rank 22nd in offensive efficiency and 25th in eFG%, and they can score from anywhere converting 57.5% of their 2-pointers and 36.6% of their 3-pointers so far. Furthermore, Texas should get a lot of second-chance opportunities, as they are 76th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage at a good 33.3%, while Marquette is 293rd defensively.
Keep Feeding the Post
Marquette should be entering this game in a foul mood after losing 75-64 at Wisconsin Saturday for their second loss in three games following a 5-0 start. Although neither loss was a bad one —as the first was by just three points to Purdue in Hawaii. The Golden Eagle remains ranked eighth overall on Kenpom.
The Eagles rank 11th in offensive efficiency despite not being a good 3-point shooting team. They are ninth in the country in 2-point shooting at a bountiful 60.6% and they are excellent at protecting the basketball, ranking 11th in offensive turnover percentage at just 12.7%. They should have no trouble feeding 6’11” Oso Ighodaro with Texas lacking size in its normal rotation.
The Pick
We expect both teams to find ways to score and score often enough to cash an Over ticket on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Marquette 84 – Texas 76
NCAAB Pick: Over 150.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
DePaul Blue Demons vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Wednesday, December 06, 2023 – 09:00 PM ET at College Station, TX
We would not be surprised if Texas A&M scores in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday, and while that is reflected in the large spread, we do think DePaul can add enough themselves to produce an Over.
Lots of Second Chances
The Aggies enter this game off a stifling 59-47 loss at Virginia to fall to 6-2, and they should appreciate going from facing one of the stiffest defenses in the country on the road to now coming home to face a soft DePaul defense. This is also just the Aggies’ third true home game, as they are 2-0 here on the season, while impressively winning two true road games and two more on neutral courts.
A&M is 15th in the land in offensive efficiency at 118.1 points per 100 possessions, and the Aggies can possibly score a season-high tonight on a Depaul defense ranked 202nd in efficiency. They will almost certainly get a lot of second-chance opportunities, as A&M leads the country in offensive rebounding percentage while DePaul ranks 301st in defensive rebounding percentage,
May Not Need Much
If we are correct in our forecast of Texas A&M approaching 90 points this game, then not much would be needed from DePaul to cash an Over ticket, which is a good thing, since the Blue Demons are a lousy basketball team this year, sitting at 1-6 while beating only a South Dakota squad ranked 277th on Kenpom.
However, DePaul can still help the Over along from both beyond the 3-point arc and from the foul line. The Blue Demons are 46th nationally in 3-point shooting at 37.8% and they have been good at getting to the foul line, with an above-average FTA/FGA ratio of 36.8% (national average is 33.5%), and they shoot a commendable 74.3% when they get there.
The Pick
Given we think Texas A&M can name the score from their end, that help from DePaul should be sufficient for this contest to go Over on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Texas A&M 89 – DePaul 68
NCAAB Pick: Over 146.5 -105 at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
