It is Week 7 of the 2024 UFL season and the Game of the Year is here. We get to see the St. Louis Battlehawks (5-1) of the XFL take on the Birmingham Stallions (6-0) of the USFL in a possible UFL Championship Game preview.
That game is definitely the highlight of Week 7, but we will also see if the Arlington Renegades (0-6) can finally win a game as they are favored at home. Keep an eye on the UFL odds available at the top sportsbooks for this week, with every spread ranging from 1-to-4 points this week so that it could be a close weekend of action.
We picked our favorite spreads and totals for Week 7 below. For additional sports betting options, check out our YouTube channel.
UFL Pick: Under 43 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Michigan Panthers vs. D.C. Defenders
Sunday, May 12, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Audi Field
We’ll see if the Defenders (3-3) can get back on track after a low-scoring win last week against the Brahmas. They’ll host the Panthers (4-2), who just edged out the Renegades on a field goal.
The Defenders are a 1-point home favorite with a total of 43 points. We are looking at that total.
Michigan Squeezes Out Another
Has Michigan kicker Jake Bates been the best player in the UFL this year? He hit a 64-yard field goal to beat St. Louis in Week 1 and now he just hit a 42-yard field goal to beat the Renegades. He’s shown incredible range and should get his share of NFL offers this year.
But overall, the Panthers were not bad last week. Danny Etling threw for 202 yards without any picks or fumbles. He ran for 55 yards too to lead his team in rushing.
We’ll need to see the Panthers get their running game going this week. The Defenders have allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards in the league. Fittingly, the Panthers are 2nd in rushing on offense.
Defenders Bounce Back
After their biggest blowout in the last 2 years, the Defenders came through with an 18-12 win against the Brahmas last week. Jordan Ta’amu was efficient, completing 14-of-22 passes for 179 yards and a touchdown without a pick.
But it was the defense that really won the game. The Defenders held San Antonio quarterback Quinten Dormady to 79 yards on 16-of-26 passing. That sounds nearly impossible to do, but that’s how much the Defenders were all over the receivers last week.
It was impressive given the Defenders rank next to last in yards allowed. But when playing a lesser offense, D.C. has shown a better ability to keep the score down compared to last year’s shootouts.
But with the way the offense hasn’t been clicking as well, this team needs to think about low-scoring games.
The Pick
Neither offense is really lighting it up right now. The Defenders have not shown their efficiency through the air or ground like the dual attack they had last season. The Panthers rely on long-distance field goals and pulling out games by the skin of their teeth.
The spread is tight, the teams are close in quality, so we’ll go with the under 43 points as the best bet from this game to end your Week 7 UFL picks.
UFL Pick: Under 43 (-110) at Bovada
Memphis Showboats vs. Arlington Renegades
Saturday, May 11, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Choctaw Stadium
More heartbreak for Arlington last week as the Renegades lost 28-27 to Michigan to fall to 0-6. Meanwhile, Memphis was blown out 39-21 by Birmingham to fall to 1-5.
Is this finally the week for Arlington to win? The Renegades are a 3.5-point home favorite at top-rated sportsbooks with a total of 45 points.
Conservative Call Dooms Arlington
The Renegades played about as even of a game in the UFL this season against Michigan last week. Things were going down to the wire after the Renegades blew a 24-16 lead in the 4th quarter and trailed by a point late.
After driving into field goal range, Arlington kept it conservative and called a run on 1st down that nearly led to a disastrous fumble that the Renegades were able to recover. But they called their final timeout and stopped the clock with 1:08 left.
Why would you do that when Michigan was down to 1 timeout, and you wanted to use as much clock as possible to score a walk-off field goal? Then on 3rd-and-9, the Renegades ran the ball and only gained 2 yards, allowing Michigan to call its final timeout with 59 seconds left.
Arlington made a 48-yard field goal to take a 27-25 lead, but Michigan had almost a full minute to work with, only needing a field goal. As we have seen several times in the UFL this season, a team had no problem going right down the field to win the game on a last-second kick.
This drive was preposterously easy as the Renegades were flagged for a face mask penalty on a kick return that was initially muffed before a big return. Michigan basically started the drive in field-goal range, and it only called 1 running play before spiking the ball with seconds left to set up the winning kick in a 28-27 final.
That’s the kind of season it has been for Arlington. So close, but something always seems to go against this team in the end.
Memphis Is a Mess
Records be damned, Memphis is the worst team in the UFL with a 5-game losing streak and a league-worst minus-64 point differential.
Despite the 0-6 record, the Renegades are minus-36 in scoring differential, which is actually better than 3 other teams. That’s the close losses at play.
Memphis is dead last with 220.2 yards per game on offense and dead last with 340.0 yards per game allowed on defense. That’s a pretty lethal combo.
Memphis has allowed 28 sacks on offense compared to just 11 for Arlington, who has the quarterback (Luis Perez) that leads the league in passing yards.
The Memphis defense allows 7.7 yards per pass attempt on defense, the worst number in the league. Neither of these teams can stop the run either as they rank as the 2 worst in yards per carry allowed.
But in most categories, Memphis is a worse team than Arlington.
The Pick
The streak ends this week. Arlington has the better team and the better quarterback. The Renegades should move the ball better and cover the spread to get their 1st win of the season for your UFL picks.
UFL Pick: Renegades -3.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
St. Louis Battlehawks vs. Birmingham Stallions
Saturday, May 11, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at Protective Stadium
The Battlehawks and Stallions are a combined 11-1 and look like the cream of the crop in the UFL this season. They meet for the 1st time ever this Saturday in Birmingham as the Stallions face their biggest threat yet to a perfect season and 3rd-straight UFL championship.
The Stallions are a 4-point home favorite, which actually makes this the largest spread of the week. The total is 47.5 points.
Battlehawks: Don’t Discount the Defense
We know the Battlehawks have an NFL-experienced quarterback in AJ McCarron, and he threw another 3 touchdown passes last week to raise his league-leading total to 13 this season.
But if the Battlehawks are going to win this game and take over as the top team in the league, they will need their defense to show up against a dominant, versatile Birmingham offense.
Fortunately, the St. Louis defense has been up to the task lately:
- St. Louis has jumped ahead of Birmingham in total defense with the No. 1 ranking at just 222.3 yards per game allowed.
- Birmingham is still leading the league with 14.8 points per game allowed but St. Louis is No. 2 with 17.2 points per game allowed.
- St. Louis allows a miniscule 4.6 yards per pass attempt – easily the best in the league.
- The Battlehawks and Stallions are tied for the league lead with 6 interceptions on defense.
- The Battlehawks are only allowing teams to convert on 3rd down at 34.3%, the 2nd-best rate in the league.
St. Louis has not allowed more than 24 points in any game this season. The defense will be tested by Birmingham, but fortunately, the Battlehawks have the offense to keep up in this game too.
Birmingham Is Rarely Challenged
The Stallions are 6-0 this year with 4 wins by at least 13 points. Their plus-82 scoring differential leads St. Louis (+70) and the rest of the league.
But if we are going to be honest, the UFL is not filled with quality teams this year. The Battlehawks are going to be by far the biggest challenge yet for Birmingham, and maybe the toughest team it will have faced in the last 3 seasons when you include those championship years in the USFL.
St. Louis has a top quarterback in McCarron and an excellent pass defense. We’ll see if Birmingham can run the ball in a big way against a run defense that has not been the strongest. That might be the edge as quarterback Adrian Martinez can be a deadly runner too.
Last week, he was a dominant passer with 369 yards and 4 touchdowns. But we’ll see if the Battlehawks can keep up their incredible pass-defense numbers on the road against a hot passer.
The Pick
If this was an NFL game, it would be a matchup of arguably the top 2 offenses and the top 2 defenses – the kind of super match you almost never see.
St. Louis probably is at a slight disadvantage playing on the road instead of at home in the dome. But this team knows how to travel, and the defense has been playing great football.
The Battlehawks would also be undefeated if not for Michigan winning on a 64-yard field goal in Week 1. Even then, it was an 18-16 loss. We are going to trust McCarron and the Battlehawks to keep it close to cover the spread in what could be the best game this regular season.
It still feels like the Stallions will win, but if this game is going to live up to the hype, it should be decided by a field goal at best.
UFL Pick: Battlehawks +4 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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