Top UFL Pick: Renegades -2.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The UFL’s Week 4 schedule is a bit different this week with a Saturday triple-header and only a single game on Sunday afternoon.
The best game may be on Saturday evening when the Stallions take their 3-0 record home to take on the Defenders, who are 2-1. Sunday’s game is a battle of 0-3 teams, so at least someone will pick up a win there.
We picked our favorite spreads and totals for Week 4, based on the current UFL odds provided by the top online sportsbooks.
Memphis Showboats vs. St. Louis Battlehawks
Saturday, April 20, 2024 – 12:30 PM ET at The Dome at America’s Center
The St. Louis Battlehawks can improve to 3-1 with a home win as a 7-point favorite against the Memphis Showboats, who fell to 1-2 after a 33-14 rout at the hands of Birmingham last week.
Can Memphis keep it closer this week? We are looking at that spread.
Memphis Isn’t Moving the Ball
The Showboats have not been able to get the offense going yet. They average 242 yards per game and have scored 51 points so far. Those numbers are barely better than Houston (237 yards per game and 50 points), or else Memphis would have statistically the worst offense in the UFL.
You have to look at the passing game as the main culprit for that. Memphis has taken a league-worst 14 sacks, which is 6 more than any other team. Even without the sacks, they average 5.0 yards per pass attempt, another number that’s the worst in the league.
The St. Louis defense may not be great, but it has a chance to perk up here if the Showboats, who also run the ball poorly, are going to keep playing the way they have offensively.
St. Louis Gets Favorable Pass Defense Matchup
On the other side of the ball, St. Louis continues to excel behind quarterback A.J. McCarron, who helped the team to 31 points in a win last week. It was far from his most dominant passing game with 152 yards, but he avoided throwing any interceptions, and he rushed for 21 yards and a touchdown.
McCarron could be primed for a big game this week as the Memphis pass defense has really struggled through Week 3:
- The Showboats allow quarterbacks to complete a league-high 70.0% of their passes – no other defense is higher than 64%.
- The Showboats allow a league-high 8.1 yards per pass attempt.
- The Showboats allow a league-high 243.3 passing yards per game.
This could be a good opportunity for McCarron to throw for over 200 yards and multiple touchdowns against this pass defense.
The Pick
We saw the Battlehawks only win by 7 points last week, but that’s because they gave up a touchdown with just over 2:00 left. They were largely in control of that game, and with McCarron expected to have a good game here against a team struggling on both sides of the ball, we’ll trust St. Louis to cover the spread at home for your UFL picks.
UFL Pick: Battlehawks -7 (-110) at Bovada
D.C. Defenders vs. Birmingham Stallions
Saturday, April 20, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Protective Stadium
It wasn’t easy, but the Defenders won a 2nd game in a row, defeating Arlington 29-28 last week. Now they get a shot at the best team in the league in Birmingham, who had no problem improving to 3-0 with a 33-14 win over Memphis.
We have our biggest spread of the season as the Stallions are a 9-point home favorite, something you wouldn’t have predicted a month ago given how good D.C. played last season in the XFL.
But this is the UFL, and it is Birmingham’s season so far. Let’s look at that spread closer.
Defenders Still Not Fully Clicking
We mentioned last week that the Defenders played a ton of high-scoring, close games last season too. But the offense was still efficient with MVP-caliber quarterback play from Jordan Ta’amu that they were able to finish 9-1 and advance to the title game.
This season, Ta’amu is only completing 51.5% of his passes and averaging 6.2 yards per pass attempt, bottom of the league type of numbers in the NFL and also in the UFL for that matter.
But last week, Ta’amu was able to lead a dramatic 10-point comeback late in the 4th quarter to beat Arlington 29-28. The alternate onside kick method in the UFL helped as after scoring a touchdown in the final minute, the Defenders were able to convert a 4th-and-12 with a 19-yard completion from Ta’amu to gain another possession. That set them up for a 49-yard field goal to win the game.
The Defenders were very fortunate to win a game where they were outgained 419 to 259 in yards. That type of performance won’t fly at all against Birmingham.
Stallions Keep Rolling
Think coaching matters? The Stallions continue to dominate teams for what would be the 3rd year in a row under coach Skip Holtz, and they once again are doing it with a different quarterback.
Adrian Martinez went the distance in Week 3 for Birmingham, and he was fantastic with 334 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and he led the team with 44 rushing yards and another score on the ground. Birmingham was 7-of-10 on 3rd down and put up 33 points and 424 yards of offense, doubling up what Memphis had.
Even the defense continues to be the best in the UFL, allowing a league-low 226 yards per game, just 41 points, and their 17 sacks are almost double the next closest defense.
The Pick
The search for a real flaw in the Stallions continues. Their offense should light up the Defenders on defense, and the pass rush has a great shot of getting after Ta’amu. This is the biggest spread of the UFL season, but with the way the Stallions are clicking on both sides of the ball right now, a double-digit victory is reasonable here.
UFL Pick: Stallions -9 (-110) at Bovada
Arlington Renegades vs. Houston Roughnecks
Sunday, April 21, 2024 – 02:00 PM ET at Rice Stadium
Arlington has dropped to 0-3 after another tough loss by a single point to the Defenders last week. Their opponent from Houston is also 0-3, so someone is finally going to get a win this season between these teams.
The Renegades are a 2.5-point road favorite. Is it their week?
Arlington Is the Better 0-3 Team Here
It’s not much consolation to Arlington fans, but your team has played better than 0-3. It has certainly played better football than Houston this year, and the tough schedule hasn’t helped the Renegades.
But the Renegades are averaging 322.7 yards per game on offense, the only team other than Birmingham that is above 290 yards right now. They can sustain that success as Luis Perez is having a very good season at quarterback. It’s not his fault the defense gave up 2 scores in the final minutes to the Defenders last week, including a 4th-and-12 conversion to steal the final possession.
Arlington no doubt has to clean things up defensively, but the offense is going to keep this team in every game.
Houston Not a Team to Trust Right Now
While we’re optimistic about Arlington’s offense, the same cannot be said about Houston, the UFL offense with the fewest points, yards, and rushing yards through Week 3.
Houston just can’t run the ball, and that is putting the offense in difficult 3rd-down situations. On 3rd down, Houston is 12-of-34 (35.3%), the lowest conversion rate in the league.
It also has not been a disciplined season by Houston, which has a league-high 26 penalties and has allowed a league-worst 12 points off turnovers.
The Pick
Finding a positive for Houston is very difficult right now. At least with Arlington, we’ve seen them hold the ball for 40 minutes last week and move the ball almost at will against the Defenders before blowing that lead.
The Renegades are favored despite being the road team, but most of these games have had such sparse attendance that it’s hard to say home-field advantage means anything right now. We’ll take the Renegades to cover and finally get a win this season.
UFL Pick: Renegades -2.5 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
