UFL 2024 Week 10 Odds & Picks: Saturday’s Playoff Preview

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Jordan Ta'amu #10 of the DC Defenders looks to throw the ball during the first quarter against the San Antonio Brahmas at Alamodome on March 31, 2024 in San Antonio, Texas. Matthew Stockman/UFL/Getty Images/AFP

 The UFL schedule makers pulled off an incredible feat as all 4 playoff-bound teams will face each other in key games this Saturday in Week 10. The 4 teams with losing records will meet on Sunday to officially put a bow on the 2024 UFL regular season.

Consider it a playoff tune-up this week as these teams will face each other again in the semifinals the following week. But where those games are played could be determined by what happens in these Week 10 matchups.

We picked our favorite spreads and totals from the UFL odds available for Week 10 below.

Top UFL Pick: Renegades-Defenders Over 46.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Michigan Panthers vs. Birmingham Stallions

Saturday, June 01, 2024 – 02:00 PM ET at Protective Stadium

The dreams of an undefeated season are over for Birmingham, which blew its 15-game winning streak in an 18-9 loss to the Brahmas last week. We’ll see if the Stallions can bounce back against a hot Michigan team that has won 5 games in a row and could finish with the same 8-2 record and a season split with what was the best team in the UFL all season.

The Stallions are an 8-point home favorite with a total of 43.5 points at top-rated sportsbooks. We are focusing on that spread.

Panthers Keep Rolling

Michigan needed a 10-point comeback in the 4th quarter last week against Houston, but the Panthers pulled it off behind quarterback Bryce Perkins. Despite splitting snaps with Danny Etling, Perkins clearly shined as the better quarterback, completing 12-of-15 passes for 121 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, and he ran for 76 yards and 2 touchdowns to lead his team in rushing too in the comeback win.

It would seem rather obvious that Perkins should play a full game over any other quarterback on this Michigan roster, but the team is in an interesting position here. They already know they’ll face Birmingham in the semifinals in the USFL division playoff game next weekend.

Should they purposely play Etling and sparingly use Perkins, or not even play him at all, to give themselves an edge by not showing their hand early? Then they can play Perkins for the whole playoff game.

That’s an interesting position for the Panthers to be in, but they need to recognize who their best quarterback is and stop the 2-quarterback shenanigans. The Stallions were trying that earlier this season before realizing that Adrian Martinez is their MVP-caliber starter.

What Happened to Birmingham?

The Stallions have been money all year but ran into a great defense and plan by coach Wade Phillips last week when they lost 18-9 to the Brahmas.

Clearly, the offense bears the brunt of blame for the 1st loss of the season for the Stallions. On 9 possessions, the offense punted 6 times, then Martinez was intercepted at the goal line in the final minute to lose the game. Remember, you can go for a 3-point conversion in the UFL so that 9-point deficit could have been tied on that drive.

There have only been 2 3-point conversions all season and Birmingham has 1 of them.

But the Brahmas did a good job of keeping the big plays limited for Birmingham with only 1 completion over 20 yards, and the running game was shut down. Martinez ran for 56 yards but his backfield only gave him 10 carries for 22 yards. The Stallions were also just 3-of-10 on 3rd down and undisciplined with 7 penalties for 78 yards.

We’ll see how they respond to their 1st loss in over a year.

The Pick

We are banking on coach Skip Holtz to have his team ready to bounce back in a big way. Again, it may be in Michigan’s best interest as the underdog to run a completely different plan this week on offense and defense to test this Birmingham team before the playoff matchup next week.

That’s why we like the Stallions to cover for your UFL picks, and get ready for what should be an interesting battle in the semifinals.

UFL Pick: Stallions -8 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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San Antonio Brahmas vs. St. Louis Battlehawks

Saturday, June 01, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at The Dome at America’s Center

The San Antonio Brahmas (7-2) have taken the XFL lead over the St. Louis Battlehawks (6-3), who are hoping to get quarterback A.J. McCarron back after he missed the last 2 games. With the Battlehawks already beating San Antonio 31-24 in Week 3, a win here would give them the same record and head-to-head sweep to claim the XFL lead and have home-field advantage in next week’s playoff meeting.

The Battlehawks are a 2.5-point home favorite with a total of 42.5 points. We are looking at that spread.

Does McCarron Return for St. Louis?

This game could be a wild card as both teams have quarterback health questions. McCarron, who was in the running for league MVP, missed the last 2 games, and his backup (Manny Wilkins) struggled last week with 3 interceptions in a 36-22 loss to a bad Arlington defense. McCarron has been listed as day-to-day with his injury.

Does St. Louis just give their star quarterback the most time possible to heal and be ready for the playoffs? The home-field stuff is not really relevant in the UFL playoffs when it’s just 1 road playoff game, and this team already won 31-24 in San Antonio earlier this season.

It might be in the team’s best interest to go with the backup and try to lean on that running game and defense that have mostly been very good this year. You just can’t have Wilkins throwing 3 picks again.

Who Plays Quarterback for San Antonio?

On the other side, San Antonio quarterback Quinten Dormady was injured last week after a good start. Chase Garbers replaced him and completed 16-of-23 passes for 139 yards without any turnovers.

Garbers played just well enough to get an upset win over undefeated Birmingham, and the Brahmas’ strategy is clearly to lean on defense and running the ball anyway. The Brahmas rushed for 127 yards in that game. Holding Birmingham to 9 points is incredible work.

But if Garbers has to play the whole game this week, he must do a lot better than in Week 3 when he faced the Battlehawks and threw for 143 yards on 41 passes. Garbers has a dink-and-dunk approach to his game, and he’s only averaged 5.6 yards per pass this season, which is well down from Dormady’s average of 7.0.

The Pick

Without a clear word on McCarron’s status, let’s lean towards Phillips’ No. 1 defense to get the job done and build on the momentum of last week’s huge win, and claim the XFL outright with an 8-2 finish.

UFL Pick: Brahmas +2.5 (-105) at BetOnline

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Arlington Renegades vs. D.C. Defenders

Sunday, June 02, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Audi Field

On Sunday, the Arlington Renegades (2-7) and D.C. Defenders (4-5) will look to end their seasons on a high note and short winning streak.

The Defenders are a 3-point home favorite with a total of 46.5 points, the highest total this week. We are looking at that total.

Perez and Ta’amu Light Up Week 9

We figured coming into the 2024 UFL season that these teams would have some of the best quarterback play as Luis Perez helped the Renegades upset the Defenders in the XFL Championship Game despite an Offensive Player of the Year season from D.C. quarterback Jordan Ta’amu.

This 2024 season has not gone according to plan for both teams and quarterbacks as neither will be returning to the playoffs.

But in Week 9, both quarterbacks were on the mark:

  • Perez shredded St. Louis’ good pass defense in a 36-22 win after he completed 24-of-36 passes for 259 yards and 3 touchdowns.
  • Ta’amu had his best game of the season after he completed 20-of-24 passes for 237 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in a 36-21 win against lowly Memphis.

Perez (2,094) and Ta’amu (1,627) lead the UFL in passing yards this season.

Expect Another Shootout?

It was 35-26 when these teams met in last year’s XFL Championship Game. It was 29-28 when these teams met in Week 3 this season. Shouldn’t we expect another shootout with the playoffs out of reach for both?

Part of the reason neither is going to the playoffs is because the defenses rank No. 6 and No. 7 in both points and yards allowed this season. Only the Showboats have been worse defensively.

When it comes to pass defense, the Renegades allow 7.1 yards per pass attempt, the 2nd-highest average in the league, and the Defenders are tied with a league-low 3 interceptions. Both defenses are last in allowing 4.7 yards per run.

The Pick

You always fear NFL teams blowing off the final week of the regular season and playing backups in low-scoring games to end the season, especially with the playoffs around the bend.

That could happen in the UFL too, but these players and coaches only get 10 chances to put tape out there for future jobs and a chance to ascend in professional football. We’ll bank on these teams playing this legitimately, which means a couple of the better quarterbacks getting to face a couple of the worst defenses.

We’ll trust both teams to score their share again and get this over 46.5 points for your UFL picks.

UFL Pick: Renegades-Defenders Over 46.5 (-110) at BetOnline

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.