Top UFC Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds (-140) [1.4u to win 1u] at Everygame (visit our Everygame Review)
In their return to the UFC Apex in Nevada, top contending flyweight competitors will exchange leather for the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks.
Grappling ace and Japan’s most notable rising prospect, Tatsuro Taira, faces the toughest test in his undefeated career when Alex Perez attempts to take his 0.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Vegas 93 main event clash between Perez and Taira, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first look betting picks, predictions and analysis.
Don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice on this event!
UFC Vegas 93 Information
- When: Saturday, June 15, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET
- Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Bouts: 13
- Main Event: Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira
- Moneyline Probability: Taira – 63% (-170) Perez – 40% (+150)
Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira
Saturday, June 15, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Alex Perez
With eleven fights and seven years spent fighting some of the best flyweights on the planet, 31-year-old Alex Perez is tinkering on the edge of veteran status. Still, we won’t place him in a category often reserved for aging, out-of-sorts fighters just yet… Especially after he silenced the doubters with a round-two knockout win over Matheus Nicolau in April.
With less than two months since his underdog victory against Nicolau, Perez is displaying a fearless attitude by getting straight back into the octagon and facing an undefeated prospect who is receiving a heavy push from the promotion.
Whether his skills can overcome the bidding prospect is yet to be seen, but one factor already cemented in stone is the significant experience advantage he’ll own this weekend. With the current and former champion, several top-10-ranked flyweights, and former title challengers on his resume, it’s no surprise that he isn’t worrying about facing a bidding up-and-comer.
Perez Best Moneyline Odds: (+150) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Tatsuro Taira
Regarding rising UFC flyweight prospects, it’s difficult to argue against Japan’s Tatsuro Taira as being one of the most promising. Since his 2022 promotional debut, he’s accepted five fights and won them all, and the landslide victories have notably involved a variety of stoppages, from an armbar and triangle armbar to a ground-and-pound TKO.
Most impressively, Taira is just 24 years old and could arguably be five or six years away from his prime. He’s one of the lone active competitors flying the Japanese flag in the UFC, and with the recent signing of Kai Asakura from RIZIN, the promotion is clearly pushing the sport and attempting to deliver more star power in Eastern Asia.
Taira Best Moneyline Odds: (-170) at BetAnySports (visit our BetAnySports Review)
UFC Vegas 93: Tale of the Tape
Perez vs. Taira Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
With a heavy grappling offensive, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt, and seven of his 15 pro-career wins coming by submission, the emphasis on Taira’s skillset is naturally swayed to his ground game and its potential. However, his striking shouldn’t be overlooked, as he’s trained in all facets of MMA since high school, and those hands were evidently put on display when winning his first UFC bout by KO/TKO at the end of 2023.
The Japanese prodigy is also larger than your average flyweight, at 5’7” and a 70” reach, which we’ve seen him utilize by pumping the jab to success. That said, his grappling prowess cannot be ignored, especially his ground control ability and seemingly endless gas tank.
- Fun fact: Perez has never defeated a flyweight opponent taller than himself with a longer reach since his UFC debut in 2018 against an opponent that went 0-2 before being cut from the promotion. This doesn’t make Taira an auto-bet, but the Japanese fighter is larger than Perez in all areas, and five of his seven career losses did come by submission.
Despite these factors, I do believe Perez’s versatility and championship-caliber experience will give him an edge in dangerous scenarios. I don’t expect, however, for him to find his way on the inside as easily as he did with Nicolau, as the long frame of Taira won’t be as forgiving.
Over 2.5 Rounds: The UFC Vegas 93 Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds have placed Taira as a moderate betting favorite, and rightfully so. More interestingly, some books have the Over lined at two rounds, while others have three, and I like the chances of this bout exceeding two and a 1.5, at the very least.
I envision both fighters respecting each other on the feet, but Taira will want to expose Perez’s ground game deficiencies. He isn’t, however, a panic grappler and has displayed his willingness to ride out rounds on the mat so long as he’s in control… Something I believe will drag this clock beyond the 7-minute, 30-second mark to make the over 2.5 rounds.
UFC Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds (-140) [1.4u to win 1u] at Everygame
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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