In their return to the UFC Apex in Nevada, top contending featherweight competitors will exchange leather for the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs at the top sportsbooks.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Vegas 92 main event clash between Edson Barboza and Lerone Murphy, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
For more top MMA picks, check out our YouTube channel, where you’ll find analysis on two other UFC bouts offering great value: Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Themba Gorimbo and Angela Hill vs. Luana Pinheiro.
Top UFC Pick: Over 3.5 Rounds (-150) [1.5u to win 1u] at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
UFC Vegas 92 Information
- When: Saturday, May 18, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET
- Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Bouts: 12
- Main Event: Edson Barboza vs. Lerone Murphy
- Moneyline Probability: Murphy – 58% (-138) Barboza – 44.4% (+125)
Edson Barboza vs. Lerone Murphy
UFC Vegas 92 Featherweight Bout
Lerone “The Miracle” Murphy
Quietly climbing through the featherweight rankings, England’s Lerone Murphy has suddenly arrived in a main event position to compete in the most crucial bout of his career. Whether or not he can match the elite skills of a veteran main player is yet to be seen, but one thing’s for certain: he knows how to win fights.
Since joining the promotion in 2019, Murphy has won five, drew one, and remains undefeated as a professional mixed martial artist. A 2021 knee to the face of Makwan Amirkhani was a KO of the year contender, so we know he can turn the lights out just like his weekend opposition.
Murphy Best ML Odds: -138 at BetOnline
Edson “Junior” Barboza
Fourteen years competing through the 155 and 145-pound UFC weight classes, 38-year-old Edson Barboza is still arriving on the main stage, which is an impressive feat in itself.
As the owner of one of the promotion’s most impressive knockout victories in history, a brutal wheel kick from 2012 that lives onto this day, alongside eight KO/TKO victories overall, the highlight reel of “Junior” continues to build during the latter stages of his career, behind a Muay Thai offensive that’s served him well for over a decade.
Barboza Best ML Odds: +125 at Bovada
UFC Vegas 92: Tale of the Tape
UFC Vegas 92 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
It isn’t groundbreaking news when I reveal that Barboza loves to strike. Stemming from a background in Muay Thai kickboxing, he’s willing to exchange strikes with anyone, and with 44% of his UFC victories (8) arriving via KO/TKO, he’s not one to be messed with in the striking realm.
For the most part, strong wrestlers, grapplers, and power strikers have been the only attributes to overcome Barboza’s dangerous striking game, and it’ll be interesting to see how he handles another young buck looking to make a statement of his name after stunting Sodiq Yusuff and Billy Quarantillo in his most recent outings.
For Murphy, Barboza could result in a nightmare matchup. He’ll undoubtedly have youth, athleticism, and, most likely, a cardio advantage this weekend. Still, as previously mentioned, it often takes a serious specialist in one particular area of the fight game to defeat the Brazilian, and this is something the Brit hasn’t displayed thus far.
The best way to describe Murphy’s UFC success to date would be ‘well-rounded,’ with a smidgen of luck thrown in. Many believe he was lucky to win a split decision over Gabriel Santos. At the same time, uninspiring wins over Douglas Silva de Andrade and Josh Culibao also leave many unanswered questions.
The UFC Vegas 92 Best Bet Formula
The UFC odds have placed Murphy as a slight betting favorite in the outright markets, likely due to a slight recency bias. Barboza is 2-2 in his four most recent bouts, while Murphy remains unbeaten, not to mention the seven-year age gap.
That said, I cannot bring myself to pick a definitive winner in this contest. The upside of Barboza is experience, offensive and defensive striking, and, of course, the KO threat, but Murphy’s age, cardio, and diversity could squeak out another dub.
Instead, I like the over in this five-round bout. Murphy isn’t known as a punishing fighter and will likely play the long game here while keeping his defenses in check. If a stoppage does surface, I don’t expect it to until the later rounds and 3.5 rounds at -150 isn’t a bad price at all.
UFC Pick: Over 3.5 Rounds (-150) [1.5u to win 1u] at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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