Our Top Betting Pick for UFC Vegas 80
UFC Pick: Dawson Inside the Distance (-135) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
In their return to the UFC Apex in Nevada, top contending lightweight competitors will exchange leather for the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs.
The undefeated Grant Dawson looks to extend his 8-0-1 UFC record, but he’ll have to overcome a savvy veteran in Bobby Green, who’s competed in 22 bouts for the promotion over the last decade.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Vegas 80 main event clash between Dawson and Green, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first-look picks, predictions, and analysis.
UFC Vegas 80 Information
- When: Saturday, October 7, 2023 – 04:00 PM ET
- Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Bouts: 11
- Main Event: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green
- Moneyline Probability: D – 20.4% (-185) H – 82% (+159)
UFC Vegas 80 Main Event: Green vs. Dawson
Grant “KGD” Dawson
He isn’t a flamboyant extrovert who’s positioned himself in the spotlight by attention seeking. Still, Grant Dawson has undoubtedly let his skillset do the talking since arriving at the UFC in 2019, with eight wins and five contests ending via submission or KO/TKO.
As one of the original Dana White’s Contender Series alum, Dawson has since racked up an 8-0-1 record and will now look to make a statement in his inaugural main event bout as a UFC competitor.
Dawson Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Performance of the Night (Two times)
Dawson Best Moneyline Odds: -390 at Heritage Sports
Bobby “King” Green
At 37 years old, Green has spent the past nine years as a UFC competitor, gradually making a name for himself. His striking style, reminiscent of Floyd Mayweather, has earned him the nickname “King.”
Bobby Green recently competed and dominated the opposition to a unanimous decision against a UFC legend, Tony Ferguson. But those are the exact types of matchmaking he needs, ones where he’s facing fighters of a similar age and trajectory.
Defeating Dawson, who excels in grappling, won’t be easy, but Green has put himself in a win-win situation. If he succeeds, he’ll receive props for handing a top prospect his first octagon loss. And should he lose to one of the division’s most talented top-15 prospects athletes, it’ll bear no weight on his legacy.
Green Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Fight of the Night (Four times)
- UFC Performance of the Night (Two times)
- UFC Submission of the Night (One time)
- Most significant strikes in UFC Lightweight division history (1637)
- King of the Cage Lightweight Championship (One time)
Green Best Moneyline Odds: +322 at Bookmaker
UFC Vegas 80 Dawson vs. Green: Tale of the Tape
UFC Vegas 80 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
Despite Green experiencing periods of achievement in recent times, he will require immense strength and unwavering determination to evade Dawson's imminent takedown attempts this weekend.
Green has remarkable agility in his head movements, evading and counting punches with finesse, and has spent countless years honing his technical striking skills. Regrettably, he will likely grow fatigued in the smaller UFC Apex octagon, particularly with the presence of Dawson, who is known as one of the lightweight division's most dominant grapplers.
Green is no slouch in fending off BJJ black belts; he’s never been submitted in 22 UFC bouts, after all. This shouldn’t eliminate the chance of a stoppage victory, however. Why? Because 25 minutes – as opposed to 15 - with a strong, younger, and consistent wrestler such as Dawson will leave Green in a world of trouble.
The UFC Vegas 80 Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds at the top betting sites have placed Dawson as the second-priciest favorite on the entire card. Is that a shame? Yes. Am I shocked? No, not at all.
As witnessed in his bout versus Islam Makhachev, Green doesn’t cope well with elite MMA wrestlers/grapplers. And this doesn’t include the variables that also sway in Dawson’s favor, such as age, trajectory, cage size, etc.
Dawson has been nearly flawless in his UFC contests to date, minus a few hiccups. With a 60% finish rate and an aging combatant in front of him, I doubt he’ll struggle to get a TKO or submission finish before the judges intervene.
UFC Pick: Dawson Wins Inside Distance (-135) at BetOnline [1u to win 1.59u]
UFC Vegas 80 Main Card & Odds
- Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green [UFC lightweight main event bout]
- Joe Pyfer vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan [UFC co-main middleweight bout]
- Alex Morono vs. Joaquin Buckley [UFC welterweight bout]
- Drew Dober vs. Ricky Glenn [UFC lightweight bout]
- Philipe Lins vs. Ion Cutelaba [UFC light heavyweight bout]
- Bill Algeo vs. Alexander Hernandez [UFC featherweight bout]
UFC Vegas 80 Preliminary Card & Odds
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Diana Belbita [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
- Johnny Munoz Jr. vs. Aori Qileng [UFC bantamweight bout]
- Kanako Murata vs. Vanessa Demopoulos [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
- Nate Maness vs. Mateus Mendonca [UFC flyweight bout]
- Montana De La Rosa vs. JJ Aldrich [UFC women’s flyweight bout]
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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