Our Top Betting Pick for UFC Vegas 79
UFC Pick: Mateusz Gamrot (+126) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
In their return to the UFC Apex in Nevada, top contending lightweights will exchange leather for the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs.
Striking purist Rafael Fiziev hopes to bounce back from his loss to Justin Gaethje, but he’ll have to overcome the diverse expertise of Mateusz Gamrot.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Vegas 79 main event clash between Fiziev and Gamrot, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first-look picks, predictions, and analysis.
UFC Vegas 79 Information
- When: Saturday, September 23, 2023 – 04:00 PM ET
- Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Bouts: 11
- Main Event: Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot
- Moneyline Probability: Fiziev – 20.4% (-146) Gamrot – 82% (+126)
UFC Vegas 79 Gamrot vs. Fiziev: Tale of the Tape
UFC Vegas 79 Main Event: Gamrot vs. Fiziev
Rafael Fiziev
Rafael Fiziev belongs to the new generation of UFC lightweight fighters. Since joining the promotion in 2019, he has amassed an impressive record of 6 wins and 2 losses. Notably, Fiziev has won 6 out of his last 7 fights following his debut defeat for the promotion.
Fiziev's rapid ascent in the rankings can be attributed to his victories over notable opponents such as Bobby Green, Brad Riddell, and former 155lb champion Rafael dos Anjos. What sets him apart is his ability to dominate the high-level competition, with two of his last four fights ending in knockout or technical knockout.
As a former Muay Thai champion from Kyrgyzstan, Fiziev primarily relies on his striking skills. He embraces kickboxing battles and has honed his abilities through rigorous training at the renowned Tiger Muay Thai gym.
Despite his focus on striking, Fiziev has demonstrated solid takedown defense and has acquired valuable grappling techniques from his time at Sanford MMA. Although Fiziev's upcoming opponent is a noteworthy grappler/wrestler, it is expected that Gamrot’s willingness to strike could lead to an exciting striking exchange with Fiziev.
Rafael Fiziev Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Fight of the Night (Three times)
- UFC Performance of the Night (Three times)
- X3 Kyrgyzstan Muay Thai Champion (2007, 2008, & 2009)
Fiziev Best Moneyline Odds: -146 at BetOnline
Mateusz Gamrot
Training alongside some of the greatest MMA fighters at American Top Team, Mateusz Gamrot, an exceptional lightweight competitor from Poland, may possess an unmatched level of expertise to outwit his opponent's fighting style in the upcoming main event this week.
Gamrot began his journey in mixed martial arts on the wrestling mats in 2002. His accomplishments in European and World Championship wrestling competitions are countless. Since transitioning to professional MMA in 2012, Gamrot has earned multiple KSW championships and has only suffered two losses in his impressive record of 24 fights.
Following a pattern similar to his opponent, Gamrot experienced defeat in his UFC debut but then embarked on a winning streak. Winning five out of his last six fights, Gamrot has delighted fight fans with a remarkable 60% stoppage rate, as he prefers not to leave the outcome in the hands of judges.
Mateusz Gamrot Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Performance of the Night (Two times)
- UFC Fight of the Night (Two times)
- KSW Light Champion (One time; former)
- KSW Featherweight Champion (One time; former)
- Multiple-time ADCC Grappling Champion
Gamrot Best Moneyline Odds: +126 at BetOnline
UFC Vegas 79 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
Freestyle wrestling, without a doubt, is the bread and butter of Gamrot’s fighting style. Is he willing to strike? He certainly is, but an alarming statistic shows how the Pole has been knocked down via strikes in all but one of his UFC bouts to date.
With such a huge red flag, it’s easy to fade Gamrot versus such a talented striker like Fiziev. However, can we really expect him to participate in a five-round striking-fest? I don’t think so! And even when he gets hurt/dropped, he recovers well and often goes on to win the fight.
Fiziev is one of the best combination strikers in the lightweight division, while Gamrot’s relentless chain wrestling is equally as impressive.
As is with most striker versus wrestler bouts, we must side with the latter. Gamrot is susceptible to big strikes, and Fiziev will certainly be head-hunting. However, cardio is a concern for the favorite, and I don’t expect him to have enough time on his feet to collect the points needed.
The UFC Vegas 79 Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds at the top betting sites have placed Fiziev as a betting favorite, and although I’m siding with the underdog in Gamrot, the current odds are justified.
Fiziev has fought the higher level of competition, his takedown defense isn’t horrible, and he’ll unquestionably win 9/10 striking exchanges. However, the cardio factor is what sways me to picking Gamrot, and I give Fiziev 10-15 minutes before the takedown defense fades and he gets dominated on the ground.
UFC Pick: Mateusz Gamrot (+126) at BetOnline [1u to win 1.26u]
UFC Vegas 79 Main Card & Odds
- Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot [UFC lightweight main event bout]
- Bryce Mitchell vs. Dan Ige [UFC co-main featherweight bout]
- Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson-Gomez [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
- Bryan Battle vs. A.J. Fletcher [UFC welterweight bout]
- Charles Jourdain vs. Ricardo Ramos [UFC featherweight bout]
UFC Vegas 79 Preliminary Card & Odds
- Miles Johns vs. Daniel Argueta [UFC bantamweight bout]
- Tim Means vs. Andre Fialho [UFC welterweight bout]
- Jacob Malkoun vs. Cody Brundage [UFC middleweight bout]
- Jake Collier vs. Mohammed Usman [UFC heavyweight bout]
- Mizuki Inoue vs. Hannah Goldy [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
- Montserrat Rendon vs. Tamires Vidal [UFC women’s bantamweight bout]
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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