Our Top Betting Pick for UFC Vegas 78
The UFC Apex in Nevada is gearing up for an all-Brazilian main event of epic proportions, and we’re covering all your betting needs.
Former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos will stand across the octagon from the ever-dangerous Vicente Luque, as a five-round battle will unquestionably deliver fight fans an elite-level UFC Vegas 78 headliner.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Vegas 78 main event clash between Luque and dos Anjos, including updated odds and our free expert UFC picks.
Luque vs. dos Anjos Key Facts
- Dos Anjos has gone the distance in 20 of his 33 UFC bouts.
- Dos Anjos has gone the distance in 4 of his previous 6 UFC bouts.
- Luque has lost inside the distance in just 1 of his 19 UFC bouts.
- Dos Anjos has the second most decision fights in UFC history (20).
UFC Vegas 78 Information
- When: Saturday, August 12, 2023 – 09:05 PM EDT
- Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Bouts: 13
- Main Event: Vicente Luque vs. Rafael dos Anjos
- Moneyline Probability: Luque – 50% (+100) / Dos Anjos – 53.5% (-115)
UFC Vegas 78 Luque vs. Dos Anjos: Tale of the Tape
The modus operandi for Vicente Luque during his eight-year tenure as a UFC competitor has been ‘kill or be killed.” And behind a 14-5 promotional record, he’s often been on the right side of success, which in turn has produced an emphatic highlight reel of eight knockout and five submission victories.
The nature of Luque’s fight style has positioned him as a fan favorite, despite his inability to reach the status of a champion. That said, aged just 31, plenty of miles remain on the clock ahead of his octagon return this weekend versus a fellow Brazilian and former champion in Rafael dos Anjos.
Vicente Luque Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Performance of the Night (Four times)
- UFC Fight of the Night (Four times)
- Second most finishes in UFC Welterweight division history (13)
Rafael dos Anjos
After debuting for the UFC and losing back-to-back fights in 2008 and 2009, nobody predicted that we would have a future legend in Rafael dos Anjos. Fast forward fifteen years, and RDA is one of the most respected lightweight competitors in the sport today, with an unfathomable UFC record of 21 wins and 12 losses.
While his prime fighting years are unquestionably behind him, he’s yet to drop out of the top-20 lightweight rankings and has notably won 3 of his last 4 bouts since 2020.
UFC Vegas 78 will mark the debut of dos Anjos competing in the promotion’s welterweight division, and he’s faced with an incredibly difficult challenge in Luque. However, you can never count out the diverse toolset of RDA that’s seen him obtain various company records while competing at the highest level versus the world’s best for over a decade.
Rafael dos Anjos Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Lightweight Champion (One time, one defense)
- UFC Performance of the Night (Four times)
- UFC Fight of the Night (Three times)
- Most unanimous decision wins in UFC history (11)
- Second most decision fights in UFC history (20)
UFC Pick: Rafael dos Anjos -120 at BetOnline
UFC Vegas 78 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
Let’s tip our hats to UFC matchmakers because the stylistic similarities between Luque and RDA are challenging to break down, specifically from a betting perspective – hence the current moneyline prices that are close to even.
There are, however, some glaring obstacles for dos Anjos making his welterweight debut, one of them being his 5-foot-8 height and 70” reach. The wrestling-savvy RDA won’t likely have the strength and top control advantages he once owned at 155 lbs, and this could be a problem versus heavy hitters such as Luque.
We can give Luque the edge in jiu-jitsu, punching power, and size, while experience, a complete MMA skillset, and cardio advantage favor RDA. Nevertheless, with a solid top game being one of the key differences in most of dos Anjos’s decision-wins to date, it’s hard to envision the same blueprint succeeding when evaluating Luque’s ability to scramble.
Luque was able to scramble and return to his feet versus the likes of Belal Muhammad, an opponent who’s significantly larger and more technical in this style of fighting when compared to RDA. With that said, a stalemate of sorts could play out this Saturday, and both fighters present proven durability to assist this contest in reaching the later rounds.
The UFC Vegas 78 Best Bet Formula
The UFC odds have placed close to even moneyline price tags on both fighters, and it’s hard to disagree with such a coin-flip bout ahead. As we search alternate avenues to bet this fight, durability instantly comes to mind when Luque and dos Anjos can match one another in striking and grappling areas.
Not only does RDA has the most unanimous decision wins in UFC history (11), but he also has the second most fights that have gone the distance (20). His durability and high fight IQ have allowed him to collect these statistics.
While Luque is undoubtedly a fighter recognized for his finishing ability, past stoppage wins haven’t come against opposition on dos Anjos’s level. Luque has been stopped inside the distance in just 1 of his 19 UFC bouts, and dos Anjos has gone the distance in 4 of his last 6.
Combining these factors with such respectable skill sets at both ends, I don’t think this contest will struggle to reach the mid-point of round three, and should a stoppage surface; I envision this to occur in round four or five.
UFC Pick: Over 3½ Rounds (-115) at Bovada [1.15u to win 1u]
UFC Vegas 78 Main Card & Odds
- Vicente Luque vs. Rafael dos Anjos [UFC welterweight main event bout]
- Cub Swanson vs. Hakeem Dawodu [UFC co-main featherweight bout]
- Khalil Rountree vs. Chris Daukaus [UFC light heavyweight bout]
- Polyana Viana vs. Iasmin Lucindo [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
- Tafon Nchukwi vs. AJ Dobson [UFC middleweight bout]
- Josh Fremd vs. Jamie Pickett [UFC middleweight bout]
UFC Vegas 78 Preliminary Card & Odds
- Marcus McGhee vs. JP Buys [UFC bantamweight bout]
- Terrance McKinney vs. Mike Breeden [UFC lightweight bout]
- Francis Marshall vs. Isaac Dulgarian [UFC featherweight bout]
- Josh Parisian vs. Martin Buday [UFC heavyweight bout]
- Montserrat Ruiz vs. Jaqueline Amorim [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
- Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Jose Johnson [UFC bantamweight bout]
- Juliana Miller vs. Luana Santos [UFC women’s flyweight bout]
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.