UFC Vegas 72 Hot Prospect Betting Pick
Fernando Padilla vs. Julian Erosa: Julian Erosa ML (-135) at BetAnySports (visit our BetAnySports Review)
We’re back with another hot prospect of the week betting pick, as the UFC returns to the Apex with a fight card filled with prospects and a higher level of competition they might not be used to.
Continue reading for our best UFC picks, taking a first look at Julian Erosa and his opponent, Fernando Padilla.
UFC Vegas 72 Information
- When: Saturday, April 29, 2023 – 09:15 PM EDT
- Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Scheduled Fights: 11
- Main Event: Yadong Song vs. Ricky Simon (UFC Bantamweight Bout)
Julian Erosa: Hot Prospect Profile
- Pro MMA Record: 28-10-0 (11 KO, 12 submissions, 5 decisions)
- UFC Record: 6-5 (1 KO, 2 submissions, 3 decisions)
With 38 professional MMA bouts alongside 13 years of competitive experience, 33-year-old Julian “Juicy J” Erosa isn’t short of octagon know-how. But it isn’t just a veteran-like level of expertise that makes him stand out from the crowd. The Yakima, Washington native has continuously entertained mixed martial arts fans during his career.
Erosa is one of the original Dana White’s Contender Series alums; after earning his contract in 2018, he’s since amassed a 6-5 UFC record – four of his promotional successes were obtained via KO/TKO or submission.
With a 6-2 record from his previous eight contests, we’re likely seeing Juicy J compete in his prime fighting years. More importantly, we receive two consistent factors from Erosa’s bouts; he’ll fight to the death and, more often than not, end a fight spectacularly.
Fernando Padilla vs. Julian Erosa: The Fight Tape
Erosa has faltered during his UFC tenure. However, he’s never suffered defeat to a lower level of competition and fighters lacking the big stage experience. This weekend he’ll welcome Fernando Padilla – a UFC debutant – and he owns the advantages in all facets of the game on paper.
Watching the regional scene fight tape of Mexico’s Padilla shouldn’t impress anyone. He owns a lackluster fighting history and will be fighting the toughest opponent of his career this weekend. Padilla is stiff on the feet, owns a less-than-desirable grappling game, and the one time he was opposed by a noteworthy fighter – Spike Carlyle – he was dominated for three rounds.
Erosa is a firecracker in the octagon and will overwhelm Padilla with constant pressure. Whether he decides to ground this fight or keep it standing, I envision all the advantages side with the betting favorite.
Erosa Moneyline (-135): UFC Vegas 72 Hot Prospect Best Bet
The available UFC odds opened Julian Erosa’s moneyline at -220; it took a huge 100-point dip in one of the most confusing line drops I’ve ever witnessed.
This is MMA, I do not doubt that Padilla could test the chin of Erosa, but nine times out of ten, I’m backing the veteran to outclass this untested newcomer. I’m still confused by the line movement, but I’d personally line this fight how the U.S. betting sites originally did, with Erosa being in the -200 region.
And with that said, you should already know the current price of -135 on Juicy J is too tempting to pass up. In a fight where he should own all the advantages, it’s challenging to look beyond a set of odds that have plummeted for an unknown reason other than the betting public hasn’t studied Padilla enough.
UFC Pick: Julian Erosa ML (-135) [1.35u to win 1u] at BetAnySports
UFC Vegas 72 Main Card & Odds
- Yadong Song vs. Ricky Simon [UFC bantamweight main event bout]
- Caio Borralho vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk [UFC middleweight co-main event]
- Cody Brundage vs. Rodolfo Vieira [UFC middleweight bout]
- Julian Erosa vs. Fernando Padilla [UFC featherweight bout]
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima [UFC heavyweight bout]
UFC Vegas 72 Preliminary Card & Odds
- Martin Buday vs. Jake Collier [UFC heavyweight bout]
- Natan Levy vs. Pete Rodriguez [UFC welterweight bout]
- Cody Durden vs. Charles Johnson [UFC flyweight bout]
- Josh Quinlan vs. Trey Waters [UFC welterweight bout]
- Stephanie Egger vs. Irina Alekseeva [UFC women’s featherweight bout]
- Brian Kelleher vs. Journey Newson [UFC bantamweight bout]
- Hailey Cowan vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth [UFC women’s bantamweight bout]
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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