UFC Sao Paulo Punching Parlay
- Jailton Almeida ML (-450)
- Vitor Petrino ML (-220)
The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Sao Paulo, Brazil, and a heavyweight slugfest will headline the event when Jailton Almeida and Derrick Lewis square off. But more importantly, we’ve singled out our locks on the card to create a punching parlay with betting value.
Below, you’ll find two of our best bets from the UFC Sao Paulo fight card, and we expect the juiced lines presented to be worth the risk for this weekend’s event; continue reading to find the betting value.
UFC Sao Paulo Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 04, 2023 – 06:00 PM EDT
- Location: Ibirapuera Gymnasium, Sao Paulo, Brazil
- Scheduled Fights: 11
- Main Event: Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis (UFC Heavyweight Bout)
Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis
UFC Heavyweight Bout
Almeida: The Story So Far
Five fights deep into his UFC tenure, Jailton Almeida (14-6-0) has been unstoppable. After proving himself as a main event competitor last time out, he returns as a headline fighter with the biggest support possible: thousands of screaming Brazilian fans.
Lewis: The Story So Far
He could own a record that will never be matched, but Derrick Lewis (27-11-0) and his fourteen UFC knockouts will undoubtedly be tested this weekend in Sao Paulo. “The Black Beast” travels to hostile territory to face the No.6-ranked heavyweight in the world, who’s being tipped as a martial artist with championship-quality skills.
Almeida vs. Lewis: Skillset Breakdown
Almeida ticks all the boxes: precise striking, power, size, and a black belt in BJJ that’s seen him collect twelve submission victories to accompany seven KO/TKO wins. He’s won 19 of his 21 pro-MMA bouts to date, but notably hasn’t lost in 14 straight contests and has never gone to a judges’ scorecard during this stretch.
Similarly, Lewis hasn’t been a fan of the judge’s scorecards. His 14 UFC knockout wins are notable, but on a broader view, Lewis has seen the judge’s scorecards in just 6 of his 38 pro bouts.
The potential of a KO/TKO or submission finish is huge, but the youth, speed, and offensive grappling attributes of Almeida make him the worthiest candidate to end the UFC Sao Paulo event as a winner.
Almeida Moneyline Reasoning
The Brazilian native is on the brink of becoming a top-five contender, and I don’t expect Lewis to be the man to halt the progression. We undeniably have a future title challenger in Almeida, and the legend that is Derrick Lewis will, unfortunately, be just another stepping stone for Brazil’s most promising heavyweight competitor.
The available UFC odds favor Almeida with a large -450 moneyline. I’d never wager on such a price in a straight wager, but it’s the perfect recipe for the first leg of our punching parlay.
UFC Sao Paulo Parlay Leg 1: Jailton Almeida ML (-450) at BetOnline
Vitor Petrino vs. Modestas Bukauskas
UFC Light Heavyweight Bout
Petrino: The Story So Far
Brazilian fighters riding epic win steaks is nothing new. Still, Vitor Petrino (9-0-0) has done an excellent job of maintaining an unblemished record while residing in such a dangerous division as the light heavyweight class presents.
Despite entering the UFC with such little pro experience, he’s overcome the veteran skills of Marcin Prachnio and gifted Anton Turkalj his first career loss.
Bukauskas: The Story So Far
Modestas Bukauskas (15-5-0) is no slouch, despite what the critics say about his initial UFC tenure that resulted in a 0-3 streak and instant removal. However, upon his return to MMA’s most dominant promotion, the Lithuanian with an English accent has bucked his former trend and won two straight bouts.
Petrino vs. Bukauskas: Skillset Breakdown
Does the recent success of Bukauskas display a future contender? Certainly not, but we’ve watched an evolution in his game, and his fight intelligence, alongside octagon awareness, is noteworthy. That said, output and aggression are huge downsides that Petrino will capitalize on.
They’re both similar in that they don’t rush, but output and a willingness to finish their respective fights unquestionably side with the Brazilian. Furthermore, as a complete martial artist, Petrino has the striking and the grappling to back it up.
Petrino Moneyline Reasoning
Petrino is the rightful betting favorite, and although Bukauskas’ redemption story is cute, he’s met his match in this upcoming bout with an opponent that will force him to trade more leather, resulting in a stoppage for the home nation fighter.
The available odds at the top sportsbooks show respectful value on the undefeated fighter at -220. While I don’t appreciate such a number in single plays, it nicely caps off our punching parlay.
UFC Sao Paulo Parlay Leg 2: Vitor Petrino ML (-220) at BetOnline
The UFC Sao Paulo Punching Parlay
- Jailton Almeida ML (-450)
- Vitor Petrino ML (-220)
UFC Pick: Two Team Parlay (-129) [1.3u stake returns 1u profit] at BetOnline
UFC Sao Paulo Main Card & Odds
- Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis [UFC heavyweight main event bout]
- Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby [UFC co-main welterweight bout]
- Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don’Tale Mayes [UFC heavyweight bout]
- Caio Borralho vs. Abus Magomedov [UFC middleweight bout]
- Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan [UFC middleweight bout]
UFC Sao Paulo Preliminary Card & Odds
- Elves Brener vs. Kaynan Kruschewsky [UFC lightweight bout]
- Elizeu Zaleski vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov [UFC welterweight bout]
- Vitor Petrino vs. Modestas Bukauskas [UFC light heavyweight bout]
- Angela Hill vs. Denise Gomes [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
- Montserrat Ruiz vs. Eduarda Moura [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
- Kaue Fernandes vs. Marc Diakiese [UFC lightweight bout]
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.