UFC Noche Punching Parlay: An All-Mexican Moneyline Parlay for Independence Day

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Punching Parlay UFC MMA

UFC Noche Punching Parlay

  • Daniel Zellhuber (-260)
  • Fernando Padilla (-240)

2 Team Parlay (-104) [1.04u stake returns 1u profit] at Everygame

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2 Team Parlay (-104)
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The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Las Vegas with a top-tier fight card in celebration of Mexico’s Independence Day, and today, we’re singling our locks on the card to formulate the strongest UFC Noche parlay.

Good luck fighting a Mexican-born fighter on an average evening, but give them a competitive bout on Independence Day, and their opponents should be worried!

Below, you’ll find two of our best bets from the UFC Noche fight card, and we’ve concluded that these slightly juiced lines are worth the risk for this weekend’s event; continue reading to find the betting value at the top betting sites.

UFC Noche Information

  • Date & Time: Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
  • Scheduled Fights: 11
  • Main Event: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso (UFC Flyweight Championship)

Christos Giagos vs. Daniel Zellhuber

UFC Noche Lightweight Bout

Zellhuber: The Story So Far

Standing at 6’1” with a 77-inch reach, Daniel Zellhuber (13-1) owns an apparent size advantage over most lightweight opponents, aged just 24. He’s already collected an impressive pro record where 90% of his successes have been obtained dominantly.

Giagos: The Story So Far

With a second attempt at UFC glory, Christos Giagos (20-10-0) was previously cut by the promotion in 2015 but fought his way back to the main stage. Still, a 6-6 UFC record isn’t pretty.

UFC Noche Giagos vs. Zellhuber: Skillset Breakdown

After the middleweight championship arrived at Xtreme Couture thanks to Sean Strickland, we can only imagine how inspired Eric Nicksick’s fighters must be. Zellhuber is one of those guys representing the Nevada-based gym this week.

Zellhuber has a beautiful jab, and more importantly, he knows exactly how to use it. At such a young age, his ceiling is high, and while there’s no denying his red flags (e.g., pressure fighters with durability), the defensive attributes of Giagos are a huge concern in this bout.

Zellhuber Moneyline Reasoning

The available UFC odds favor Zellhuber, and rightfully so. I can’t respect a -260 money line on such an unproven fighter at this level; however, I do believe he’s an excellent parlay addition, and I personally cap him around the -180 to -200 region.

Giagos has a well-rounded skill set, but the nine-year age gap and size differential when faced with Zellhuber will sting him. He enjoys pressure, but the straight shots down the middle from Zellhuber will damage a fighter with an extremely questionable defensive game.

UFC Punching Parlay Leg 1: Daniel Zellhuber (-260) at Everygame

Kyle Nelson vs. Fernando Padilla

UFC Noche Featherweight Bout

Nelson: The Story So Far

I’ll be completely honest: I’ve never backed Kyle Nelson (14-5-1), and I’m not about to start now. The Canadian has proved his skill level under the UFC banner with a 2-4-1 record, and his best result was by taking Doo Ho Choi to a majority draw.

Padilla: The Story So Far

There’s so much to like about Fernando Padilla (15-4-0); much like Zellhuber, he’s one of Mexico’s bright prospects. In his UFC debut earlier this year, he flatlined an experienced vet, Julian Erosa, as a rare 6’1” frame at 145 pounds boasting KO-power will be challenging to overcome at this weight class.

UFC Noche Nelson vs. Padilla: Skillset Breakdown

Like most fighters presented with a size disadvantage, removing the space is imperative. Unfortunately, you’re forced to enter a danger zone inside the pocket to achieve this.

For this bout, Nelson must employ a takedown strategy, and I don’t believe his skills are elite enough to maintain such a plan for 15 straight minutes. Not forgetting the fact that Padilla has submitted eight opponents during his pro-MMA career.

A 5-inch reach and a 2-inch height advantage play right into the game of Padilla, a fighter who’s incredibly confident in his hands and is proven to be no slouch on the ground.

Padilla Moneyline Reasoning

The available odds show too much juice, as a 2.4-unit stake to win 1-unit on Padilla doesn’t interest me. Again, like Zellhuber, I’d give the Mexican a -180’ish price tag, as I agree that he’s the rightful favorite and is a great parlay addition with the current odds.

UFC Punching Parlay Leg 2: Fernando Padilla (-240) at Everygame

The UFC Noche Punching Parlay

  • Daniel Zellhuber (-260)
  • Fernando Padilla (-240)

2 Team Parlay (-104) [1.04u stake returns 1u profit] at Everygame

UFC Noche Main Card & Odds 

UFC Noche Preliminary Card & Odds 

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.