Our Top Betting Pick for UFC Noche
UFC Pick: Alexa Grasso (+145) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
In a celebration of Mexico’s Independence Day, the UFC brings Noche UFC to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs.
One of the most celebrated and recent Mexican-born UFC champions, Alexa Grasso, looks to stamp her position as the flyweight queen. Still, she’ll have to overcome the legend she defeated to lift the title, Valentina Shevchenko, in the rematch.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Noche main event clash between Grasso and Shevchenko, including updated UFC odds.
UFC Noche Information
- When: Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT
- Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Bouts: 11
- Main Event: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko
- Moneyline Probability: Grasso – 40.8% (+145) / Shevchenko – 62.3% (-165)
UFC Noche Main Event Profiles
Alexa Grasso
Spearheading the celebration of Mexico’s Independence at UFC Noche this weekend is Alexa Grasso, and who better to represent the Mexican nation than their first-ever women’s UFC champion?
It’s been a pleasure to watch Grasso’s progression inside the octagon, from her previous unsuccessful outing versus Carla Esparza in 2019 to a 5-fight win streak that included her title victory over Shevchenko that became one of the biggest underdog stories of the last decade.
As a +575 betting underdog, the sportsbooks underestimated Grasso’s potential, and to be completely honest, so did I. Shevchenko had been so dominant at 125lbs that it was almost impossible to comprehend life with her as the champion.
But here we are, the smooth boxing credentials and crafty cage work of Grasso sits atop the women’s flyweight division, and she has the opportunity to cement her legacy even deeper by defeating one of the greatest ever to do it in back-to-back bouts.
Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Women’s Flyweight Champion (One time, current)
- First Mexican woman to win a UFC championship
- UFC Fight of the Night (Once)
- UFC Performance of the Night (Once)
UFC Pick: Alexa Grasso (+145) at BetOnline
Valentina Shevchenko
No introduction is needed for Valentina Shevchenko. Win or lose, the dominance displayed during her professional MMA career will be challenging for most of her predecessors to emulate, as she owns the most title wins (8) in the women’s flyweight division history.
Life at the top is difficult, specifically as a UFC champion. Outside obligations hinder training, the spotlight is always shining, and in every title defense, you’re matched with the best version of an opponent regarded as the second-best in your division.
Even at the age of 35, offshore sportsbooks aren’t counting out Shevchenko just yet. However, unlike the -900 price tag from her first bout with Grasso, bettors can now receive a humbled price of -165. The question is, was the previous outcome the beginning of the end?
Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Women’s Flyweight Champion (One time, former, 7 defenses)
- Most title wins in UFC Women’s Flyweight division history (8)
- Most knockout wins in UFC Women’s Flyweight division history (4)
- UFC Performance of the Night (Three times)
UFC Pick: Valentina Shevchenko (-165) at BetOnline
UFC Noche Grasso vs. Shevchenko: Tale of the Tape
UFC Noche Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
Prior to her championship loss to Grasso, Shevchenko had only been defeated by one other competitor during her 20-year combat sports career. And it was up a weight class versus the pound-for-pound greatest women’s fighter ever, Amanda Nunes.
However, in the flyweight division, we hadn’t even witnessed chinks in the armor of Shevchenko until she fought Jennifer Maia in 2020. And outside of her dominant wins over similarly aged opponents, Andrade and Murphy, the red flags have since continued with a close split decision versus Taila Santos and, of course, her first loss inside the distance against Grasso.
With such a long career competing against the elite, it’s very well possible that Shevchenko is slowing down, and that’s why the flaws in her game are starting to be taken advantage of.
Shevchenko's simplest path to victory is to shoot those double-leg takedowns and deliver a ground-and-pound beatdown because Grasso is weak off her back. However, after seeming lethargic when failing these attempts last time out and suffering her first-ever stoppage loss, doubt could potentially affect her mentally versus an incredible gas tank of her opponent.
Despite locking up the rear-naked-choke, Grasso is known for boxing fundamentals, and we witnessed this in the first bout. But skillsets aside, the mental game is a huge factor, and Grasso should be brimming with confidence and own this advantage.
Grasso Moneyline: The UFC Noche Best Bet Formula
The UFC odds have made Shevchenko a moderate favorite. While I agree with the line, I can’t ignore the factors outside the skill-to-skill comparisons.
Do I believe Shevchenko is the more well-rounded, experienced, and dangerous? Yes, I do. However, Grasso’s excellent striking in round one last time out, evolving style fight to fight, and the fact she’s fighting in the prime of her career leads me to believe she can successfully retain her title.
Could Shevchenko put on the wrestling shoes as she did in rounds two and three of the first fight? Sure… But I don’t expect her to have the cardio to keep this up, and I predict that Grasso will be delivering more output on the feet as she did last time.
UFC Pick: Alexa Grasso (+145) at BetOnline [1u to win 1.45u]
UFC Noche Main Card & Odds
- Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko [UFC women's flyweight main event bout]
- Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena [UFC co-main welterweight bout]
- Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Terrence Mitchell [UFC bantamweight bout]
- Daniel Zellhuber vs. Christos Giagos [UFC lightweight bout]
- Fernando Padilla vs. Kyle Nelson [UFC featherweight bout]
UFC Noche Preliminary Card & Odds
- Lupita Godinez vs. Elise Reed [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
- Roman Kopylov vs. Josh Fremd [UFC middleweight bout]
- Edgar Chairez vs. Daniel Lacerda [UFC flyweight bout]
- Tracy Cortez vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius [UFC women’s flyweight bout]
- Charlie Campbell vs. Alex Reyes [UFC lightweight bout]
- Josefine Knutsson vs. Marnic Mann [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
