UFC Louisville Punching Parlay: Beating the Bookies in the Blue Grass State

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UFC Louisville Punching Parlay

  • Soriano/Baeza Under 2.5 Rounds (-240)
  • Katona/Butler Over 2.5 Rounds (-210)

Top UFC Pick: Two Team Parlay (+109) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Two Team Parlay (+109)
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The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Louisville, Kentucky, following an absence of over a decade, and we’re looking at a fun-filled night of octagon wars with middleweight sluggers Nassourdine Imavov and Jared Cannonier concluding the event festivities.

More importantly, however, I’m back again to supplement your MMA betting needs. Below, you’ll find my favorite picks from the UFC Louisville fight card, which I believe formulate a punching parlay worthy of risking our bankroll units at top-rated sportsbooks.

And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel.

UFC Louisville Information

  • Date & Time: Saturday, June 08, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET
  • Location: KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, Kentucky
  • Scheduled Fights: 14
  • Main Event: Jared Cannonier vs. Nassourdine Imavov (UFC Middleweight Bout)

Punahele Soriano vs. Miguel Baeza

UFC Louisville Welterweight Bout

Soriano: The Story So Far

When Punahele Soriano introduced himself to the UFC middleweight division, he knocked heads off left, right, and center. Unfortunately, a two-fight KO/TKO streak took a sour turn, and he’s now 3-4 in the promotion and will enter Kentucky after losing four of his previous five bouts.

  • Soriano Pro MMA Record: 9-4-0
  • Soriano Knockout Wins: 6
  • Soriano Submission Wins: 2

Baeza: The Story So Far

Similarly to his weekend opponent, Miguel Baeza entered the UFC and matched the hype behind his name. He finished his first three opponents inside the distance, including a veteran gatekeeper in Matt Brown. But then, it all came crashing down.

Whether you want to call it a fraud check or not, Baeza has now lost three consecutive bouts, taking his promotional record to 3-3. His durability has also been questioned, as a mediocre Andre Fialho effortlessly knocked him out in his most recent contest.

  • Baeza Pro MMA Record: 10-3-0
  • Baeza Knockout Wins: 7
  • Baeza Submission Wins: 1

UFC Louisville Soriano vs. Baeza: Skillset Breakdown

After two years of absence from the octagon, Baeza returns to action, but will he bring anything new to the octagon? Perhaps this doesn’t happen, so long as he can survive the first five minutes, his chance of victory versus the one-round cardio of Soriano will significantly improve should he survive.

Soriano is a striker at heart and has the power to shut the lights out. However, time and time again, we’ve watched his entire skill set evaporate as soon as five minutes pass and the adrenaline dump kicks in.

Under 2 ½ Rounds Reasoning

Instead of making a risky play on the outright betting market, I’m happy to take a little juice on the total going under because neither fighter has consistently displayed three-round durability.

I envision Soriano connecting early and shattering Baeza’s chin for a KO/TKO, or he’ll fade during the mid-way point of round two until Baeza’s finishing ability can take advantage of a lethargic opponent by club and sub.

UFC Louisville Punching Parlay Leg 1: Under 2.5 Rounds (-240) at BetOnline

Brad Katona vs. Jesse Butler

UFC Louisville Bantamweight Bout

Katona: The Story So Far

Only one man can claim winning The Ultimate Fighter twice, and that’s Canada’s Brad Katona. He’s overcome the adversity of being cut from the promotion, fought through regional scene battles, and was riding a seven-fight win streak prior to his January defeat to Garrett Armfield.

  • Katona Pro MMA Record: 13-3-0
  • Katona Knockout Wins: 1
  • Katona Submission Wins: 3

Butler: The Story So Far

Jesse Butler made his UFC debut on short notice against Jim Miller almost one year to the day. He endured a rude welcome to the promotion as the UFC 100, 200, and 300 legends slept him with a left hook and uppercut in the first round.

Butler will now test himself at 135lbs, and while he will have a size advantage over many of the opponents in this division, life isn’t getting much easier as he’ll face an experienced Katona in front of the largest crowd he’s ever competed in front of.

  • Butler Pro MMA Record: 12-5-0
  • Butler Knockout Wins: 1
  • Butler Submission Wins: 8

UFC Louisville Katona vs. Butler: Skillset Breakdown

Jesse Butler’s best chance of victory is to keep Katona from reaching his hips and initiating the takedowns. With a size advantage, there’s a good chance this former lightweight could shock the oddsmakers and squeeze a victory this weekend. Still, the square and most likely outcome is that the John Kavanagh trainee walks out with another decision victory.

Katona is a point-scoring, round-by-round fighter. He doesn’t fight with his heart, always the head and his fight IQ to date has seemingly paid off, as he’s won seven of his previous eight bouts on the scorecards. Wrestling is his thing, his top control is strong as hell, and while severe punishment is rarely dished out, he should be a sure win against a lower level of opposition.

Over 2 ½ Rounds Reasoning

The available UFC odds favor Katona, and this should come as no surprise based on the experience levels alone. The Canadian has fought the likes of Merab Dvalishvili and made a respectable account of himself. At the same time, Butler’s greatest test was a round one whitewash against a forty-year-old Miller.

That said, a -600 moneyline on Katona is ridiculous, no matter how lackluster the opponent may seem. The SBG Ireland representative does have the experience and a respectable record to match. Still, his reliance on a grinding, patient style can be cost-worthy, alongside a lack of aggression that’s seen him go the distance in 13 of his 16 pro-MMA contests to date.

He doesn’t have the prettiest style, but his defensive attributes and point-scoring abilities must be respected. Life, death, and Katona going the distance is the motto. In eleven of his most recent bouts, Katona has gone the distance, so seeing a -210 price tag on the over 2.5 rounds feels like a must.

UFC Louisville Punching Parlay Leg 2: Over 2.5 Rounds (-210) at BetOnline

UFC Louisville Punching Parlay

  • Soriano/Baeza Under 2.5 Rounds (-240)
  • Katona/Butler Over 2.5 Rounds (-210)

UFC Pick: Two Team Parlay (+109) at BetOnline

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Two Team Parlay (+109)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.