UFC Pick: Over 4.5 (-155) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Following a ten-year absence, The Bluegrass State welcomes octagon violence this weekend, as top contending middleweight competitors will exchange leather in UFC Louisville’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Louisville main event clash between Jared Cannonier and Nassourdine Imavov, including updated odds from the top sportsbooks and our free expert UFC first look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel, where our expert covered two bouts: Jared Cannonier vs. Nassourdine Imavov and Andrea Lee vs. Montana De La Rosa
UFC Louisville Information
- When: Saturday, June 8, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET
- Where: KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, Kentucky
- Scheduled Bouts: 14
- Main Event: Jared Cannonier vs. Nassourdine Imavov
- Moneyline Probability: Imavov – 55.6% (-125) Cannonier – 48.8% (+105)
Nassourdine Imavov vs. Jared Cannonier
Saturday, June 8, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET at KFC Yum! Center
Jared “The Killa Gorilla” Cannonier
Fall’s City completes a 14-fight schedule with a middleweight banger, and it’s a former title challenger in Jared Cannonier who’ll be returning to the octagon following a 12-month absence.
After a torn MCL forced Cannonier to undergo surgery and onto the sidelines, ‘The Killa Gorilla’ now resumes his impressive run as a 185-pound competitor. He boasts a 7-2 record as a middleweight, with his only two losses coming against former champions Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker.
Aged 40 years old, some would suggest Cannonier is one losing streak away from retirement, but he’s one of the rare oldies who’s managed to keep pace with the younger generation. He’ll be the most powerful and challenging foe his weekend opponent has faced to date.
Cannonier Best Moneyline Odds: +105 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Nassourdine “Russian Sniper” Imavov
Nassourdine Imavov made his UFC debut in 2020, but despite his lack of octagon experience, the Frenchman has fought some of the division’s toughest fighters, such as Joaquin Buckley, Sean Strickland and Chris Curtis.
With a mix of opponents that includes experienced and up-and-coming talent, the ‘Russian Sniper,’ aged just 28, could finally be ready to mark his position as a future title challenger. The middleweight division isn’t the most stable weight class right now, so an impressive performance over a former title contender will certainly allow Imavov to fast-track himself into more main event positions.
Imavov Best Moneyline Odds: -120 at Bovada
UFC Louisville: Tale of the Tape
UFC Louisville Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
Having fought within the top 185-pound rankings for six years, Cannonier's experience factor this weekend will be huge. Regarding his skill set, he isn’t a complicated man and his ruthless striking power behind a strong wrestling offense that includes brutal ground and pound has predominantly been his key to victory thus far.
Don’t let the power fool you, however, because when it’s time to get technical, ‘The Killa Gorilla’ has outclassed the likes of Strickland, Anderson Silva, Kelvin Gastelum and Marvin Vettori, where he’s notably fought 25 minutes and remained consistent in delivering the more damaging shots without cardio concerns whatsoever.
We can’t compare Cannonier’s level of competition to Imavov’s, as the Frenchman hasn’t fought under the UFC banner long enough to garner such recognition. However, he isn’t nicknamed the ‘Russian Sniper’ because of a military background but because of the laser-striking offense he’s displayed to date.
The red flag for Imavov, despite being the younger competitor, might be an ability to deliver consistent point-scoring blows throughout a five-round bout. Furthermore, when comparing Strickland versus Imavov compared to Cannonier, the former was picked apart while the latter utilized his noteworthy reach and power to find success.
Outright bettors would be wise to take a shot on Cannonier at the current underdog price, as speculation on his return from surgery and current age may be the lone reason he’s priced in this position. He hasn’t shown reasons to doubt his age yet, so until that happens, it's hard to ignore his chance of victory through sheer experience alone.
Over 4½ Rounds: The UFC Louisville Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds at Bookmakers Review have made Imavov a slight betting favorite. Still, the durability of both competitors in the UFC Louisville main event points me toward the total going over.
We can expect both fighters to respect each other's finishing ability, and with a conscious thought of conserving energy for a possible 25-minute bout, I also don’t believe we’ll see a head-hunting game plan.
Solid chins and defensive performances, even in defeat, can be attributed to Imavov and Cannonier, so no matter the result this weekend in Kentucky, I believe the victor will be declared on the judge’s scorecards, and this contest will go over 4½ rounds.
UFC Pick: Over 4.5 (-155) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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