UFC London First Look: Aspinall vs. Tybura Betting Pick, Odds, and Predictions

profile image of David Manyun
UFC First Look fight

Our Top Betting Pick for UFC London

Aspinall by KO/TKO -150 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

BetOnline logo
Aspinall by KO/TKO -150
Visit Site

In their return to London, England, the UFC is gifting Britain’s finest heavyweight with a showcase bout for the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs.

Following a devastating injury and a long layoff, in his quest to extend a top-five ranking and challenge for the division’s gold, Tom Aspinall faces off against Marcin Tybura.

Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC London main event clash between Aspinall and Tybura, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.

Aspinall vs. Tybura Key Facts

  • Aspinall is 5-1 in the UFC, with his lone loss stemming from an injury.
  • Aspinall has won 60% of his UFC bouts via KO/TKO.
  • Tybura has an 11-6 UFC record.
  • 50% of Tybura’s UFC losses were by KO/TKO.

UFC London Information

  • When: Saturday, July 22, 2023 – 12:10 PM EDT
  • Where: O2 Arena, London
  • Scheduled Bouts: 15
  • Main Event: Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura

UFC London Aspinall vs. Tybura: Tale of the Tape

Tom Aspinall

The pride of heavyweight mixed martial arts in Great Britain, Tom Aspinall, was one fight shy of potentially earning his right to challenge for the title. Unfortunately, a freak knee injury versus Curtis Blaydes cost him the first loss on his UFC record and a 12-month hiatus.

With a year on the sidelines, Aspinall returns to the octagon with an English fan base in tow. With a 100% finish rate from his five UFC victories to date (3 KO/TKO, 2 submissions), including noteworthy wins over Sergey Spivak and Alexander Volkov, UK fans aren’t wrong in expecting their national MMA hero to achieve another dominant success.

Aspinall Combat Sports Accomplishments

  • UFC Performance of the Night (Four times)

Aspinall Best Moneyline Odds: -475 at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Marcin Tybura

Mixed martial arts critics will have you believe that Marcin Tybura is facing a huge mismatch in Tom Aspinall this weekend, and it would seem the bookmakers agree. However, the Polish underdog's UFC experience, and diverse skillset, present a more intriguing bout than many believe.

Tybura is a top-15-ranked competitor and has won 4 of his previous 5 UFC bouts. Overall, he’s garnered an 11-6 record for the promotion and is notably a former champion of M-1 Global.

Tybura Combat Sports Accomplishments

  • UFC Performance of the Night (Three times)
  • M-1 2013 Grand Prix Champion (heavyweight)
  • M-1 Global Heavyweight Champion

Tybura Best Moneyline Odds: +400 at BetOnline

UFC London Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights

Tybura can strike, grapple, and is a proven five-round fighter. However, he’s recently stemmed from his kickboxing style to more of a grappler/wrestler. He’s a worthy opponent for Aspinall’s return, but as is with most of the Brit’s opponents, speed will be a huge factor.

Watching Tybura slowly plod to a decision victory over Blagoy Ivanov last time out isn’t a good sign for his chances versus Aspinall. Lackluster reaction times and overall speed will cost him dearly versus the hometown slugger.

Aspinall is excellent in all facets of the game, and he’ll understand Tybura’s strengths in grappling situations. I expect him to easily defend takedown attempts and close the distance incredibly quickly, leading to a combination of lightning-quick punches before the referee is forced to step in and save the underdog from unnecessary damage.

The UFC London Best Bet Formula

The available UFC odds at the top US sportsbooks have placed a huge moneyline price tag on Aspinall, and given the age, speed, and head-to-head skillsets, the juiced line isn’t a surprise.

We must look beyond the moneyline odds to find any respectable betting value. Luckily, Aspinall is no stranger to a KO/TKO victory, and Tybura has lost 50% of his UFC bouts to the same method.

The submission prop has potential, but as this week's underdog has never been submitted and holds a respectable grappling game, we predict the No.5-ranked British heavyweight will rely on his striking to get the job done.

UFC Pick: Aspinall by KO/TKO -150 at BetOnline [1.5u to win 1u]

UFC London Main Card & Odds

UFC London Preliminary Card & Odds

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.