UFC Kansas City Perfect Prop Bets: These Fights Aren’t Going the Distance

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Brandon Royval celebrates after his victory over Matt Schnell in their flyweight bout during UFC 274. Christian Petersen/Getty Images/AFP.

Our UFC Kansas City Prop Bets

Royval vs. Nicolau: Under 2 ½ Rounds (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Under 2 ½ Rounds (-110)
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Picks Summary

  • Brandon Royval vs. Matheus Nicolau: Under 2 ½ Rounds (-110)
  • Gaston Bolanos vs. Aaron Phillips: Under 2 ½ Rounds (-145)

Max Holloway vs. Arnold Allen and Edson Barboza vs. Billy Quarantillo are scheduled for the main and co-main events as Kansas City fight fans are in for a treat with the UFC’s return to Missouri.

We’ve singled out our best UFC picks as we dive into the betting analysis for the UFC Kansas City event at the T-Mobile Center scheduled for this Saturday.

UFC Kansas City Information

  • When: Saturday, April 15, 2023 – 09:05 PM EDT
  • Where: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, Missouri
  • Scheduled Bouts: 14
  • Main Event: Max Holloway vs. Arnold Allen [UFC Featherweight Bout]

Brandon Royval vs. Matheus Nicolau

UFC Kansas City Flyweight Bout

Brandon Royval

Since surrendering the LFA flyweight championship for a position on the UFC roster, Brandon Royval (14-6-0) has consistently been involved in some of the most thrilling fights at 125 pounds.

Six fights into his UFC tenure, Royval has displayed a kill-or-be-killed attitude as 5 of those contests ended inside the distance. He owns three submission victories of his own. At the same time, the current champion Brandon Moreno, stopped him via TKO, followed by a rear naked choke loss to the current title challenger Alexandre Pantoja.

Matheus Nicolau

Looking to break the two-fight win streak Royval is a Brazilian sharpshooter in Matheus Nicolau (19-2-0) that has lost just one of his past UFC bouts, notably back in 2018.

Behind a BJJ black is an equally dangerous offensive striking offense as he enters Kansas City on a 6-fight win streak and a 7-1 UFC record overall.

UFC Kansas City: The Prop Bet Breakdown

A clear path to victory isn’t black and white for either fighter. They’re equally as talented in grappling and scrambling situations. We must see an even playing field regarding the jiu-jitsu advantage as both men are proven black belts in this discipline.

However, Nicolau is an accurate striker on the feet and has displayed power by dropping opponents like David Dvorak and Matt Schnell. For Royval, he’s more reckless on the feet; he will likely be the lesser talented fighter in this area.

Under 2 ½ Rounds (-110): The Betting Formula

The available UFC odds favor the six-fight win streak of Nicolau to be extended to seven. But as the price enters juiced waters beyond -200, the erratic and dangerous style of Royval is more worrying.

With that said, erratic and dangerous is perfect for betting the under. Royval will go for the kill; there simply isn’t a fight where he doesn’t. And if he doesn’t find the finish, he’ll leave himself in a vulnerable position to be finished.

Just 6 of Royval’s 20 pro-career fights have reached the judge's scorecards, and since 2018, the judges have determined the outcome of his fights on just one occasion. While Nicolau has been involved with many more three-round battles, the openings for a submission or TKO victory will surface a lot more when competing against his opponent's all-or-nothing style.

UFC Pick: Under 2 ½ Rounds (-110) at Bookmaker

Gaston Bolanos vs. Aaron Phillips

UFC Kansas City Bantamweight Bout

Gaston Bolanos

In a rare situation, a fighter, Gaston Bolanos (6-3-1), has signed with the UFC after Bellator MMA refused to offer their fighter a new contract. We can assume his pricing wasn’t justified. Still, as a former muay thai kickboxer with an impressive highlight reel, the UFC will likely hope the decorated striker can add a few more flashy knockouts to his resume.

Aaron Phillips

Aaron Phillips (12-4-0) has been absent from the octagon since his UFC debut round-one submission loss to Jack Shore in 2020. He was prone to injury and illness during 2021 and had four canceled fights during that year.

Can he return to the upper echelon of MMA combat with improvements? He’s 33 years old, so this is an unlikely scenario. But in one of the lowest-level MMA bouts on the Kansas City fight card, wagering on the underdog isn’t the worst idea.

UFC Kansas City: The Prop Bet Analysis

The UFC evidently wants Bolanos to outwork his opponent and deliver a highlight reel KO/TKO finish like he’s done throughout his muay thai and Bellator career. Why? Because they’ve handed him an opponent in Phillips that isn’t known for his wrestling and will likely give the Peruvian a stand-up war he desires.

Should the fight play out on the feet, it’s difficult to overlook Bolanos’s chance of victory. He owns all the tools to kickstart the UFC Kansas City prelims with an impressive knockout via his dynamic and explosive striking.

Under 2 ½ Rounds (-145): The Betting Formula

The available UFC odds at U.S. betting sites have the accredited kickboxer as a betting favorite, but betting Bolanos beyond -200 doesn’t feel right.

However, with the under 2 ½ rounds sitting at a more reasonable price of -145, we can cheer on for a spectacular knockout from Bolanos, all while keeping our bet active if Phillips causes an upset and takes advantage of his opponent's grappling weaknesses - as he’s notably been submitted in 2 of his 3 pro-MMA losses.

UFC Pick: Under 2 ½ Rounds (-145) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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UFC Kansas City Main Card & Odds

UFC Kansas City Preliminary Card & Odds

*The pick reflects the line when the writer made the play; the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, do not forget to refer to our live odds.